CHARLEY BECOMES A (CATEGORY 4 Now!!) HURRICANE (18 ft. storm surge)

NHC ^ | 08-13-2004 | Forecaster Lawrence

[Jeff400000]

000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[Amelia]

Often, the warnings *are* excessive, but they have to be, because the forecasting is so inexact, and it takes so long to evacuate these areas. If you wait until you *know* where it's going, there isn't enough time to get everyone out.

I think part of the problem is that so many of the people in that area are new residents with no hurricane experience.

[ApesForEvolution]

I'm sorry, I can't. I finally found my favorite screen for the TV room...;0

I have to hit it. This has been one of the single most totally crazy weeks in my life...g'night and God bless.

[Mr. Jeeves]

Hey, can I ask you something?

Yes.

Oh, you mean you want to ask a second question? ;)

[wxdawg]

You wouldn't believe how many people ask me what "wx" means. It is also the handle for my personal email. Glad to see someone else recognizes it. :)

[ApesForEvolution]

I think part of the problem is people living in a fantasy world...

[Howlin]

I also heard the comment by the caller to NBC 2 in Ft. Myers.

What did the caller say?

[ApesForEvolution]

lol

[CobaltBlue]

I appreciate your candor. Some meteorologists seem to have an uncanny knack for predicting where hurricanes will go. I am thinking of Nash Roberts, who was famous in New Orleans.

I did a story on him while in college almost 25 years ago, he was getting satellite feed printed out on thermal paper, must have cost a fortune, but he made a mint predicting hurricanes for the oil and gas businesses in the Gulf. He said he walked a fine line, too cautious and the companies lose money, too reckless and they lose lives.

So, when the oil and gas companies shut down rigs, that gets my attention. They don't mess around.

[nwctwx]

Looking back in the #100's posts, you were dead on the money.

I'm not a meteoroligist only because I don't have a degree. ;) I have always been a huge weather-fan and frequent numerous places professional mets post to. All the information one could need to be a met is on the internet, one just has to learn how it all fits together. Thanks though, I was very worried with this storm starting about 2 days ago. It ended up being just about as bad as it could have been. I'm surprised there was not more mention of this likely scenario of explosive development. One only has to glance at water temps and note that Charley went over the warmest water it could find. https://128.160.23.54/products/K10/caribbeank10.gif

[ApesForEvolution]

As I part for night, I just heard that insurgent super cells inside this storm are regrouping to attack the East Coast of America and bring allah's final ruination to our financial markets...and W is behind it with a special new Hurricane making machine of the most diabolical proportions...ahhhhh, America.

[SC Swamp Fox]

Your first post is long, coherent, on topic, after midnight and properly formatted....

Well done.

Welcome to FreeRepublic.

[Jorge]

While you are there digging through the remnants of peoples lives for shells, remember to wear a mask to protect you from the smell of the devastation. I wouldn't want you to get sick.

You obviously have never lived through a South FLA hurricane.
"Remnants of people's lives" don't end up on the beaches. The beaches end up in the remnants of people's homes.

[Howlin]

Do you think it will intensify tomorrow before coming ashore?

My niece lives in Wilmington -- and I'm worried.

[Revel]

Someone called in and basically accused the weather forecaster of killing people by getting the forecast wrong. It was really a call by a pathetic person.

[ApesForEvolution]

Was Roberts the Galveston Island dude?

[nwctwx]

Forgot a bunch of tags... sorry.

I'm not a meteoroligist only because I don't have a degree. ;) I have always been a huge weather-fan and frequent numerous places professional mets post to.

All the information one could need to be a met is on the internet, one just has to learn how it all fits together.

Thanks though, I was very worried with this storm starting about 2 days ago. It ended up being just about as bad as it could have been. I'm surprised there was not more mention of this likely scenario of explosive development. One only has to glance at water temps and note that Charley went over the warmest water it could find.

https://128.160.23.54/products/K10/caribbeank10.gif

[WillVoteForFood]

I was watching the CBS national coverage in Houston, and what absolutely infuriated me was a conversation the reporter had with this older gentleman. When asked why he was not leaving the area, he went to the old curmudgeon card and stated "Well, I'm 70 years old", like that gives him license to be a dumbass and potentially risk the lives of rescuers who might have to come an rescue him or retrieve his body after the storm is done. Irresponsibility broadcast for all the world to see.

[killjoy]

That's true, worth noting. Once you get past 150mph gusts, even stronger buildings have trouble. The eyewall of a storm like this (or andrew) is often as powerful as a significant tornado.

Of course it has been a few years since Andrew, but I don't remember seeing almost any concrete block houses with significant structural damage. If there was damage, it was caused by the windows being blown out and letting the wind in, or the roof being ripped up. The walls on the concrete houses held up very well. A big problem was garage doors. Once there was an opening into the house such as the garage or a large broken window, that is all it took.

[topher]

I also heard the comment by the caller to NBC 2 in Ft. Myers. I felt very bad for their on-air meteorologist. Hurricane intensity forecasts are still a VERY inexact science. Many of you may remember Hurricane Lili last fall before it hit LA. It was a cat 4, but suddenly (and unexpectedly) decreased in intensity to a cat 1. Today, we saw the opposite occur. Hurricane intensity forecasts must always be taken with a grain of salt...we still do not understand fully how the internal dynamics of a hurricane work.

As far as Louisiana is concerned, they believe very strongly in prayer. Scientific people may not understand that, but some things can not be explained. Why did Lili go from Cat 4 to Cat 1 in the warm waters of the Gulf.

Of course, jet stream can be a scientific factor, but I believe in the unseen.

There is a very precious College to me that was close to the track of this storm. I am scared to death for them -- and they were at least 10 miles from landfall of the eye.

[Sam Cree]

Remember the tourists coming to see Homestead and south Dade after Andrew?

As someone who lived in south Dade then, and in a devastated area, I honestly didn't mind or resent it, I figured it was good for everyone to see what went on. However, others were unhappy about it.

Yes, I can imagine there might be some shells, OTOH, Sanibel could be a little inaccessable for awhile.