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CHARLEY BECOMES A (CATEGORY 4 Now!!) HURRICANE (18 ft. storm surge)
NHC ^ | 08-13-2004 | Forecaster Lawrence

Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000

000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


TOPICS: Breaking News; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: bush43; charley; charlie; elections; fl; florida; hugelosses; hurricane; hurricanecharley; hurricanecharlie; jeb; jebbush; politics; weather
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To: Dog

Where?


21 posted on 08/13/2004 10:24:58 AM PDT by Jeff400000
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To: Howlin

Yup, I just heard this too..............Going to be a Lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng night here in JAX.

We're not expected to get hit until 4am


22 posted on 08/13/2004 10:25:19 AM PDT by OXENinFLA
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To: Howlin

Holy crap


23 posted on 08/13/2004 10:25:31 AM PDT by Constitution Day
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To: Jeff400000

Bonita Springs..... south of Ft. Myers.


24 posted on 08/13/2004 10:25:37 AM PDT by Dog ( Attention: Everyone check their briefcase for their "magic" secret agent hat... That is all.)
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Hints for posters to this thread:

1) The joke about it should have been named Clyde(Bonnie and Clyde) has already been told 100 times, you weren't the first to come up with it X days ago

2) The 'Its Bush' fault' joke has also been run into the ground

3) Yeah, yeah, you're way to smart to live where there are hurricanes/earthquakes/tornadoes/forest fires/moral degradation/etc, no need to waste space with your spam

4) If you have to ask "Where is Port Charlotte?" you probably should refrain from telling people whether or not they are in danger, what they should do, where you are certain the hurricane will hit, and offering up 30 thread posts per hour

5) 2 dozen radar images slow down the thread, the first 2 or 3 will do, especially since 1 or more will update every time you refresh


25 posted on 08/13/2004 10:25:51 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: EX52D

They evacuated, right?

People who tried to stay and ride it out still have time to leave.


26 posted on 08/13/2004 10:26:25 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: dirtboy

135 is enough speed so even cows can fly.


27 posted on 08/13/2004 10:26:42 AM PDT by RightWhale (Withdraw from the 1967 UN Outer Space Treaty and establish property rights)
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To: Izzy Dunne

28 posted on 08/13/2004 10:26:45 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
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To: dirtboy

CNN just reported the upgrade to CAT 4. The weather channel is reporting that Charley will be upgraded because of higher winds detected (missed where--maybe near the eye).


29 posted on 08/13/2004 10:26:57 AM PDT by Catspaw
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To: Jeff400000

I just checked Fox and CNN.com and they both say cat 3, as does the NHC...


30 posted on 08/13/2004 10:27:07 AM PDT by Jeff400000
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To: Catspaw
CAT4

31 posted on 08/13/2004 10:27:28 AM PDT by OXENinFLA
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To: Diddle E. Squat

I hope folks have plenty of potable water on hand. We lived through Agnes in '72, and getting potable water was a big problem for a few days.


32 posted on 08/13/2004 10:27:51 AM PDT by mewzilla
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To: Catspaw
Per Drudge:

STORM TO BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITHIN THE HOUR... WINDS CLOCKED BY PLANE AT 165 MPH AT 10,000 FEET... GROUND WINDS HIT 145 MPH... MORE...

33 posted on 08/13/2004 10:27:59 AM PDT by Constitution Day
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To: Strategerist

I don't know yet, but knowing my family, she has a lot of people to make sure she's safe.


34 posted on 08/13/2004 10:28:44 AM PDT by EX52D
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To: Constitution Day; 1Mike; 3catsanadog; ~Vor~; ~Kim4VRWC's~; A CA Guy; A Citizen Reporter; abner; ...
Just upgraded in the LAST HOUR!

A CAT 4..........everybody get out!!

Charlie now a Cat 4 storm. 145 mph winds. New track is much more to East. Orlando - Lakeland directly in path. Much closer to Andrew like.


35 posted on 08/13/2004 10:29:06 AM PDT by Howlin (Kerry being called a war hero is "a colloquialism.")
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To: EX52D

I just called my brother ..no answer I hope he has evac'ed


36 posted on 08/13/2004 10:29:57 AM PDT by Dog ( Attention: Everyone check their briefcase for their "magic" secret agent hat... That is all.)
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To: Constitution Day; Howlin
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

AT 115 PM EDT...1715Z...A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 10000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 162 MPH AT A DISTANCE OF 8 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. THIS GIVES AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

LAWRENCE

37 posted on 08/13/2004 10:30:29 AM PDT by Pyro7480 (Sub tuum praesidium confugimus, sancta Dei Genitrix.... sed a periculis cunctis libera nos semper...)
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To: Howlin
I think this is going to qualify as my 1st BIG hurricane.
38 posted on 08/13/2004 10:31:49 AM PDT by OXENinFLA
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To: Constitution Day

STORM TO BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITHIN THE HOUR... WINDS CLOCKED BY PLANE AT 165 MPH AT 10,000 FEET... GROUND WINDS HIT 145 MPH... MORE

That's a high CAT 4:

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale


The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.

Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricanes Allison of 1995 and Danny of 1997 were Category One hurricanes at peak intensity.

Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Bonnie of 1998 was a Category Two hurricane when it hit the North Carolina coast, while Hurricane Georges of 1998 was a Category Two Hurricane when it hit the Florida Keys and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995 and Fran of 1996 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.

Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Luis of 1995 was a Category Four hurricane while moving over the Leeward Islands. Hurricanes Felix and Opal of 1995 also reached Category Four status at peak intensity.

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity over the western Caribbean. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is one of the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclones of record.

39 posted on 08/13/2004 10:32:55 AM PDT by Catspaw
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To: Pyro7480

Wonder when the person who was mocking the idea yesterday this would be critical to Bush's re-election or his #1 priority will show up.

I'd call several hundred thousand newly-homeless people in a key election state something demanding his attention.


40 posted on 08/13/2004 10:33:30 AM PDT by Strategerist
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