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CHARLEY BECOMES A (CATEGORY 4 Now!!) HURRICANE (18 ft. storm surge)
NHC ^ | 08-13-2004 | Forecaster Lawrence

Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000

000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


TOPICS: Breaking News; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: bush43; charley; charlie; elections; fl; florida; hugelosses; hurricane; hurricanecharley; hurricanecharlie; jeb; jebbush; politics; weather
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To: proud American in Canada

The tens of billions invested Disneyland, Universal Studios, and ten thousand small businesses in Orlando and Kissimmee that depend on AAugust and September tourist traffic are what are in more danger.

Thanks goodness many schools opened this week, and so there was less existing tourists threatended.


2,181 posted on 08/13/2004 7:23:59 PM PDT by Robert A Cook PE (I can only donate monthly, but Kerry's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!))
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To: Howlin

Thanks Howlin !!


2,182 posted on 08/13/2004 7:24:13 PM PDT by musicman
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To: myprecious

Anderson is just a whiny little albino metrosexual that thinks he's more important than he really is.


2,183 posted on 08/13/2004 7:24:14 PM PDT by Armedanddangerous (The first rule of gunfighting is to have a gun...more than one, if possible..)
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE

Exactly...I think it must've been meant for the lake towns in far western Palm Beach County.

But it came across as a regular warning.

I had to go re-check the radar to make sure it was well north.

Like you said, they're getting screwy.


2,184 posted on 08/13/2004 7:24:31 PM PDT by FlJoePa (4 More Years for Joe, and 4 More Years for W!)
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To: nutmeg

Come on down. :-)


2,185 posted on 08/13/2004 7:24:32 PM PDT by Howlin (Kerry being called a war hero is "a colloquialism.")
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To: Howlin

Damage from Hail Wind tornados
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html


2,186 posted on 08/13/2004 7:25:59 PM PDT by listenhillary (We are defending the peace by taking the fight to the enemy.GWB)
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To: oceanview

Oh boy....you're asking ME? I was only there, once. Our friends live in Tampa, we stayed in Dunedee (sp),
west of Tampa, not that far.

SOMEWHERE on this thread is a map and I noticed the city...


2,187 posted on 08/13/2004 7:26:06 PM PDT by Brad’s Gramma (If only hamsters could vote.......)
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To: Amelia

It probably will pass over the Gulf Stream for a time but explosive development is not likely. It's going to start screaming NE (if it is not moving fast enough already) and that's not favorable for major development. It should begin affecting southern New England at this time tomorrow night.


2,188 posted on 08/13/2004 7:26:18 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: xzins

It will not have much time before it hits water and the situation is not as conducive to strengthening.

Probably will hit as a Cat 1....maybe Cat 2 as well as it is staying organized though.


2,189 posted on 08/13/2004 7:26:19 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (BYPASS FORCED WEB REGISTRATION! **** http://www.bugmenot.com ****)
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To: myprecious

He's on CNN; Punta Gorda took a hard hit, friend. I'm sure your nephew is fine though.


2,190 posted on 08/13/2004 7:26:23 PM PDT by Howlin (Kerry being called a war hero is "a colloquialism.")
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To: myprecious

Good advice!


2,191 posted on 08/13/2004 7:26:29 PM PDT by JBCiejka ( T)
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To: Howlin

The media lamebrains reflexivly interpret the absence of immediate news to mean "nothing bad happened" - they cannot comprehend that sometimes when all power is lost over a wide area, the bad news can't be discovered right away . . . then, when they later find out about all the damage they failed to take seriously, they try to minimize it to cover their butts for missing it in the first place. Hurricane Hugo was the classic example of this, but the pattern always repeats.


2,192 posted on 08/13/2004 7:26:43 PM PDT by LikeLight (__________________________)
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To: listenhillary

Wow.


2,193 posted on 08/13/2004 7:28:02 PM PDT by Howlin (Kerry being called a war hero is "a colloquialism.")
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To: Howlin

Wind is worse here in Daytona.Any freepers north of Daytona,
get ready and HANG ON.Getting worse by the minute here !!


2,194 posted on 08/13/2004 7:28:14 PM PDT by musicman
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To: CFW; myprecious; ovrtaxt; Howlin
WooHoo! Life is getting better by the minute. Got the desktop put back together with cable internet access! Wired the speakers incorrectly, and the printer is still upstairs in the shower...alas, I digress. Sipping a cold adult beverage just now.

Howlin, here is the pic I couldn't post this morning. My living room window...


2,195 posted on 08/13/2004 7:28:47 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I served in Viet Nam, and we have better hair"----John F'n Kerry campaign platform)
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To: musicman

How far is Edgewater from you?


2,196 posted on 08/13/2004 7:28:54 PM PDT by Howlin (Kerry being called a war hero is "a colloquialism.")
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To: nwctwx

I'm just hoping that it mainly leaves the coast of GA alone. Although I'm afraid if it does, my husband is going to be slightly disappointed in some small part of his being, to find that he's done all this battening down stuff for naught. ;-)


2,197 posted on 08/13/2004 7:28:57 PM PDT by Amelia
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To: Jeff400000

just found this thread. Very worried about my mom, sisters and other family member living in Port Charlotte. Any update as to what's happening at this point?

Thanks, www.preparetoleave.com


2,198 posted on 08/13/2004 7:29:09 PM PDT by PrepareToLeave
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To: rwfromkansas
Probably will hit as a Cat 1....maybe Cat 2 as well as it is staying organized though.

It's already looking like it is restrengthening a bit on the NE quad. The storm will never regain its symmetry but will still pack a punch up the coast. I think you are right about Cat1 or 2. I'd guess cat2 (around 100-110mph) upon second landfall.

2,199 posted on 08/13/2004 7:29:22 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: LikeLight

Also most networks sent their "A" talent to Tampa to do the standing outside in the wind thing (which I think is an abomination that has reduced the useful info given to the public by about 95%, but that's another story), and all of those folks are damn POed they didn't get their storm.


2,200 posted on 08/13/2004 7:29:51 PM PDT by Strategerist
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