Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
Howlin - I just want to know your "intuition" about this storm over central NC?
Is it evacuation time if there are big trees around this house?
We have had tons of rain today - will have tons more tomorrow - then wind. NOT a good scenario.
Lost a tree in Fran and another in Floyd. What's left will cut the house in two if they come down.
I'm a thinkin' it's time to leave.....tomorrow.....what do you or any of our weather experts following this thread think? Central NC in the bullseye of Charley's path with bad winds?
...Weakening Charley moving rapidly northeastward over the Orlando area...
at 9 PM EDT...0100z...all warnings are discontinued along the West Coast of Florida.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cocoa Beach Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina on the southeast U.S. Coast.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Jupiter Inlet to Cocoa Beach Florida...and for Lake Okeechobee.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect from Cape Lookout to Chincoteague Virginia including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds and for Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point.
At 9 PM EDT...0100z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located near latitude 28.4 north...longitude 81.4 west or about 15 miles south-southwest of Orlando Florida.
Charley is moving toward the north-northeast near 25 mph and a gradual increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. The center of the hurricane will pass near Orlando in the next hour...and it should move across the northeastern portion of the Florida Peninsula into the Atlantic later tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours. However hurricane force winds are spreading across Florida near the path of the center of the hurricane. McCoy Airport in Orlando has just reported sustained winds of 61 mph with a gust to 83 mph.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles.
The estimated mimimum central pressure is 965 mb...28.50 inches.
Storm surge flooding in the Florida Keys is subsiding. Storm surge flooding of 10 to 15 feet is occurring near and south of where the center moved inland. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet is expected along the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts with lesser flooding to the north and south.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely along charleys path across portions of the eastern United States. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods.
Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula tonight.
Repeating the 9 PM EDT position...28.4 N... 81.4 W. Movement toward...north-northeast near 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds...90 mph. Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Beven
700K without power.
I've got to go get some supper ...
Eye now right at the little "hook" in I-4 on the west side of Orlando - Couldn't have found the middle of town better if it had been aimed at it!
Aiming back for the Atlantic Ocean.
CNN had a local reporter who just stated that there will be many casulties from hurricane, but he didn't state how many . Prayers for all floridians.
I guess we do go a little overboard. Hugo is still fresh in the minds of the people in South Carolina.
If you are leave and are wrong, what harm has been done?
If you stay and are wrong....
Thank you - that's my sentiments exactly. Packing as we speak. But I would like to know - is it a good idea to cut off water, gas, power before one evacuates in case a tree comes down on an attic that has a furnace/ac unit in it with a gas line connected? Trying to think of everything. Just have a bad feeling about this.....
MSNBC in the business district of punta gorde - lots of damage. Olbermann complaining about the evacuations being done in the wrong locations.
Definitely you should do that.
Not to make light of this situation, but it's official: Drudge has it as a "hell storm" now.
Believe it or not, this will become a story you will retell for years to come!
You are in my prayers.
I'm getting a bad feeling about this storm.
The way the news is being reported tonight it's starting to sound like it's of andrew proportions.
Thanks for the advice - and the prayers.
My sister's ex hubby called her this morning and said he was on his way to Florida for 5 to 10 days. He works for Georgia Power. (of course, that is the same excuse he used before they divorced...so take it as you will).
Funny, I don't remember Olberman being placed in charge of Emergency Management in Florida. In other words . . . HE'S NOT QUALIFIED TO COMMENT!!!
I think there will be andrew level destruction, but in a much much smaller area.
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