Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
I'm in SE Orlando, near the airport. It is very calm outside right now - no rain, no wind, not any darker than usual this time of the evening. Looks like a normal night. I can still hear planes flying overhead. An eery feeling - certainly the calm before the storm.
Grew up In Altamonte Springs, Mom still lives in the area and is working with Fl Emergency Management at one of the Ops Centers in Orlando. Just read that one collapsed. Have no way to contact her at this point. All of you are in my prayers.
All is well at all centers in Orlando....will keep you posted if we hear more...before the power goes out
In Oviedo we've got some ominous runmbling. Its not very dark...yet. Plenty of beer and vodka available. The entire region is sold out of ice. So we are in ice conservation mode. My only concern is this DR Horton built house. Crappy worksmanship. I wish I would have installed those Simpson Strong ties in the attic.
I'ts funny what you can sleep through. My parents woke up one day to hear a radio news report about a police chase which had involved a fleeing car trying to shake the police by driving through back yards in XX subdivision. My parents said, "wow, that's our subdivision, I wonder where it happened?"
They looked outside, and found multiple tire tracks dug into their own yard, making a "U" shape right around three sides of their house. (They live on a corner near a dead-end, the perp found himself boxed in and had to use their yard to backtrack.)
There was a huge patch of bark several feet in diameter entirely missing from a big maple tree about four feet from their bedroom window, it must have made a huge noise when a car sideswiped it, not to mention the roar of engines and probably police sirens, but they slept through the whole thing.
I lost my satellite signal so I can't see what is happening. I will have to go out to my car to get the latest update locally from the radio.
I assume a feeder band is going through my area since we are still 3 hours away from high winds.
What is the track prediction? Is Charley going to cross Fla and get into the Atlantic?
I stayed at the Innlet hotel on Gasparilla Island back in the late 80's. It was nice because I could dock my little skiff I had trailered to my truck. Couldn't quite make it to the pass in the 14 foot boat but had a god time catching schoolie trout in the mangroves. I'm guessing that place didn't fare too well today.
As far as federal assistance for th island, I would think the $12 or whatever it is they charge as a bridge toll to keep the riff raff out would cover any contingencies :). Federal assistance for Garsparilla Island would truly be welfare for the rich.
Seen any flyin' gaters yet???????
Buddy, you've got issues.
Full of hot air, fed by rising masses of confused swirling vapor, leading up to massive windbags spewing gasses and dangerous winds that create economic and political disasters that feed the news cycles with vagues conjectures of no real thoughts and much futile pontificating by no-nothings who pretend they are in control of everything.
Yeppers. Sounds like democrats to me.
*bonk*
We just got the hell kicked out of us for about twenty minutes. Power surge,no storm,not much rain. Horrible wind with a really strange icky sound as it whips the hell out of the trees. My freshly trimmed cypress hammock suffered big damage and fell on my thirty year old bird feeder. Neighbors grapefruit trees down. it was quiet for 5 minutes, now it is back again. Oaks are holding up great. They are a century old at least,roots must go to china. I'm holding my breath. For some reason the worst damage and debris comes from the Northeast side of the house. Here comes more wind,and now the rain. Yikes... I'm not cleaning up this mess.
Looks like it will. They are predicting it will head north through Orlando.
If Charley does enough damage it'll be nicknamed "Upchuck Charley".
Been through Alicia, cat 3. Eye went over my house. Can't imagine what a cat 4 would feel like. Cat 3 was all we could handle. 40 miles inland. It was bad because it was at night. Much better to have to deal with a hurricane during the daylight hours I would think. Or whichever was low tide if I was near water.
WOW!
Glad you're safe - so far. 8<)
You might have had a part of the eye pass overhead.
Wind direction change after that quiet spot?
And you feel that way because.......???
What a list. Thank you for compiling it.
My brother-in-law and his family live in a canal development in Cape Coral. When Charley was upgraded to Cat. 4, they were headed to the high school evacuation center but we haven't been able to reach them since then.
I feel like this day has been one long prayer. My thanks to everyone who's been praying for the people in Charley's path.
They're probably saying, "this is nothing, you should have seen the storm of '07".
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