Everyone here has battened down the hatches as best they may, and now we're just waiting, watching it come right us.
A strange sensation, I can assure you.
Posted on 08/13/2004 6:56:12 AM PDT by JesseHousman
TAMPA, Fla. - With a "scary, scary" Hurricane Charley zeroing in on Florida's west coast Friday, state officials urged almost 2 million tourists and residents to evacuate and avoid the path of a storm that could submerge parts of this city's downtown and other neighboring areas.
Charley's expected 120 mph top sustained winds and massive storm surge could devastate coastal and low-lying areas in Tampa and St. Petersburg. Everything from waterfront condominium towers to vulnerable mobile homes were in danger on the Gulf Coast.
Charley's center was expected to pass west of the Florida Keys early Friday before hitting the Tampa Bay area later in the day, dumping heavy rain and possibly spawning sporadic tornadoes, Hugh Cobb, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said Thursday. About 6.5 million of Florida's 17 million residents were in Charley's projected path, the U.S. Census Bureau reported.
"It does have the potential of devastating impact. ... This is a scary, scary thing," said Gov. Jeb Bush, who had declared a state of emergency.
State meteorologist Ben Nelson said the surge could reach up to 16 feet in the Tampa area if Charley hits at 120 mph, making it a major hurricane at Category 3 strength.
About 1.9 million people from the Florida Keys north through the west coast have been advised to evacuate, although many will stay in their homes, said Kristy Campbell, spokeswoman at the state emergency management center. It was estimated that 1.1 to 1.5 million will be leaving their homes ahead of the storm, she said.
"In many areas, people are still leaving," Campbell said Friday.
Friday morning, the weather at the St. Petersburg/Clearwater International Airport was calm, said Jeff Clauss, an airport spokesman.
At 8 a.m., the hurricane was in the Florida Straits, 75 miles west of Key West.
Forecasters said Charley had top sustained winds of about 110 mph. It was moving north-northwest near 18 mph and was expected to strengthen, meteorologists said. Hurricane force winds extended outward 30 miles from the eye; tropical storm force winds went out 125 miles.
All the west coast of Florida's peninsula was under a hurricane warning, as was the lower Florida Keys. Tropical storm watches and warnings extended from the middle Keys to Cape Fear, N.C.
Most of the evacuations were in the counties of Hillsborough, which contains Tampa, and Pinellas, a peninsula that contains St. Petersburg. All residents of MacDill Air Force Base, on another peninsula in Tampa Bay, were ordered out with only essential personnel remaining. MacDill is home to U.S. Central Command, the nerve center of the war in Iraq.
"MacDill Air Force Base will probably be mostly underwater and parts of downtown Tampa could be underwater if we have a Category 3," Nelson said. "In a Category 3, you can almost get to the point where Pinellas County becomes an island."
Gary Vickers, Pinellas' emergency management chief, told people in evacuation zones there would be "a period of time where if you stay behind and you change your mind and you want to be rescued, no one can help you.
"We aren't going to go out on a suicide mission," he said.
Heavy traffic flowed Thursday afternoon away from the coast near Tampa in Florida's biggest evacuation request since 1999, when Hurricane Floyd prompted an order for a record 1.3 million people to evacuate the state's east coast.
Many residents on Florida's southwest coast tried to prepare for the worst, buying plywood to board up homes and stocking up on water, canned food and batteries to ride out Charley.
Beth Ciombor of Sarasota was at a Home Depot Thursday loading two sheets of plywood onto the top of her minivan while her 2-year-old son watched.
"It's very threatening," Ciombor said. "I'm on the verge of tears. It's so frightening."
In the Florida Keys, visitors and mobile home residents followed orders to leave the entire 100-mile-long island chain or report to shelters.
About 60 people slept at one Key West elementary school overnight, stretched out on blankets and mattresses in a hallway as a circular fan buzzed. Peter Berg, 45, from Vancouver, British Columbia, had been vacationing in Key West for a week when he and his wife were forced to leave their hostel.
"I keep telling myself it could be worse," he said.
Next to him, Audrey and Gregory Pace sat on the floor on blankets as their 4-year-old son, Stephen, watched the cartoon "Land Before Time IX" on a portable DVD player while sitting on a "Blue's Clues" sleeping bag. Gregory Pace said the family came to the shelter Thursday night because they had to leave their mobile home on nearby Stock Island.
He said their home sits beneath coconut trees, a dangerous situation with Charley approaching.
The coconuts "turn into bombs in storms," he said.
At dawn Friday, fisherman Manuel Garcia was trying to secure his boss's fishing boat, the Cowboy III, in the Stock Island marina, where heavy surf was pushing the vessel against a cement barrier.
"If the water comes up, I can do nothing," he said, smoking a thick cigar.
Power companies said they were mobilizing thousands of workers to prepare for widespread electricity outages, and out-of-state crews were being readied to rush to Florida.
On Thursday, Tropical Storm Bonnie came ashore in the Florida Panhandle, but its top sustained winds of 50 mph caused little damage. It weakened into a depression late Thursday and was no longer a threat, Cobb said.
(Associated Press writers Mitch Stacy in Tampa, David Royse in Apalachicola, Ken Thomas in Key West, Vickie Chachere in Sarasota and Rachel La Corte, Adrian Sainz and John Pain in Miami contributed to this report.)
indeed, the complex bays and canals in that area are going to be hurt by flooding.
where is this "Port Charlotte" area? weather channel talking about that as the main impact zone.
Statement as of 11:28 am EDT on August 13, 2004 (Tampa, FL)
... Dangerous Hurricane Charley will be a significant threat to the
western Florida Peninsula this afternoon and tonight...
... Hurricane warnings are in effect for the entire west central and
southwest Florida coastal area...
... An inland hurricane wind warning is in effect for inland counties
of west central Florida through Saturday morning.
... A Flood Watch is in effect for all of west central and southwest
Florida through Saturday...
... A Tornado Watch is in effect for Pinellas... Hillsborough...
Polk... Hardee... DeSoto... Highlands... Manatee... Sarasota... Charlotte
and lee counties until 5 PM...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the following counties in
west central and southwest florida:
Charlotte Citrus
De Soto Hardee
Hernando Highlands
Hillsborough lee
Levy Manatee
Pasco Pinellas
Polk Sarasota
Sumter
Including...
the coastal waters from Bonita Beach to the mouth of the Suwannee
river... Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.
An inland hurricane wind warning is in effect for the following
counties in west central florida:
Hardee
Highlands
Polk
Sumter
... Storm location...
at 11 am EDT... the eye of Hurricane Charley was located near
latitude 25.2 north... longitude 82.8 west or about 145 miles south of
Sarasota Florida or about 103 miles southwest of Fort Myers... and 175
miles south of Tampa. Charley was moving to the north near 18 mph.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph with higher gusts... and
some additional strengthening is forecast as the storm continues to
move over the warm waters of the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Charley
could become a major hurricane later today. Minimum central pressure
remains at 965 mb... or 28.49 inches.
... Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts...
with Charley expected to intensify... then accelerate... along the
Suncoast... the threat of a rapidly developing storm surge in the
storm's southern semicircle is great. Current indications suggest
the highest surge will occur from the counties near Tampa Bay south
to Lee County.
A storm surge of 10 to 13 feet is possible to the south of where
Charley makes landfall. A storm surge of 4 to 7 feet is possible
north of where Charley moves onshore as the winds come around to the
west behind the storm.
... Wind impacts...
tropical storm force winds are expected to effect southwest Florida
from around noon for approximately 12 hours... central west Florida
from around 3 PM for approximately 12 hours... and the nature coast
from around 5 PM for approximately 12 hours. With hurricane force
winds and gusts generally 3 to 5 hours with strongest winds along the
coast. These times and strengthens subject to change with any future
track or speed adjustments.
Charley is forecast to intensify and could become a category three
hurricane as it approaches the Suncoast later this afternoon... with
winds in the inner eyewall perhaps at least 130 mph with higher
gusts. However... no matter where the center crosses... current
forecast data suggest tropical storm force winds of at least 40 mph
will affect all areas of west central and southwest Florida this
afternoon through early Saturday.
... Very dangerous winds will produce widespread damage...
... Destruction of Mobile homes near the center of the storm is
possible...
... Structural damage...
the majority of Mobile homes will be severely damaged near where the
storm makes landfall. Houses of poor to average construction will
have significant damage... including partial Wall collapse and roofs
being lifted off. Many will be uninhabitable. Well constructed houses
will incur minor damage to shingles... siding... gutters... as well as
blown out windows.
Partial roof failure is expected at Industrial Parks... especially to
those buildings with light weight steel and aluminum coverings. Older
low rising apartment roofs may also be torn off... as well as
receiving siding and shingle damage. Much of the glass in high rise
office buildings will be blown out. Airborne debris will cause
damage... injury... and possible fatalities.
... Natural damage...
all trees with rotting bases will become uprooted or snap. Nearly all
large branches will snap... and major damage can be expected to
Citrus Groves... including numerous uprooted trees... most common where
the ground is saturated.
Residents in flood prone areas should rush to completion preparations
to protect their property... then move to a place of safety.
In rural locations... small streams and creeks will surpass bank
full for more than 6 hours.
Urban areas will see significant flooding as rainfall of 4 to 8
inches with isolated higher amounts. The storm surge will limit
evacuation of the water.
Heavy rain will cause rivers to swell long after the storm passes.
Persons living along rivers should monitor events through early next
week.
The next hurricane local statement from the Tampa Bay area forecast
office will be issued around 2 PM EDT.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further information on this
dangerous hurricane. Heed all evacuation orders from law enforcement
or military personnel.
Prayers for all you Florida Freepers! Be safe!
(But I kind of worry about Floridians from the 2000 election--are those people who couldn't operate a voting machine able to comprehend the safety guidelines for storms like these?)
About 20 miles northwest of Ft. Myers, at the head of Charlotte Harbor (the big bay on the West Coast south of Tampa Bay). On the northern side of the Peace River.
In terms of a West Coast strike anywhere north of Naples or south of Crystal River, this is probably the best place they would choose. It'll head inland and rain out over some pretty low-population areas. Sanibel and Captiva could get smacked, though.
Everyone here has battened down the hatches as best they may, and now we're just waiting, watching it come right us.
A strange sensation, I can assure you.
you are in Sarasota? Its coming right at you I think.
steve lyons on the weather channel - "it's not going to make a direct hit on the Tampa Bay area".
National Weather Service NEXRAD
Just click on the map near where you see something, and you'll get the closest radar to your click. You can navigate with the arrows at top left to other stations. Click short range loop to see the last 10 images animated.
That is the scariest warning I've ever read.......
Prayers for all of you in Charlies' path. Please leave if you have been asked!!
are you seeing the latest report on the weather channel? its coming in south of the Tampa Bay area.
yes, that's where its headed. i don't know the area that well, I tried to post some maps from yahoo.
wow, that map I posted showing that charlotte harbor area - its shape is tragically perfect for the storm surge to be pushed right up into there.
I take it there must be some housing developments right along the water there in that harbor area?
I don't usually watch the weather channel. Much more important information can be found online. I'll probably turn it on later to see what they are going through.
National Hurricane Center tracking still takes it over Tampa Bay, but it may come in south of the city. So far it is doing a lot of wobbling but generally heading north. It's going to be tough to pinpoint landfall until it makes more of a curve. By that time, it will only 2 or 3 hours out.
239
URNT12 KNHC 131522
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1522Z
B. 25 DEG 18 MIN N
82 DEG 40 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2786 M
D. 100 KT
E. 038 DEG 004 NM
F. 127 DEG 107 KT
G. 034 DEG 003 NM
H. 964 MB
I. 10 C/ 3054 M
J. 18 C/ 3031 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF963 0903A CHARLEY OB 09
***MAX FL WIND 121 KT SE QUAD 1406Z.***
Latest flight data suggests we have a Category 3 storm now. I expect an upgrade shortly.
That has to be spooky..especially if the power goes leaving you with radio at best. I think I'll settle for our earthquakes out here in Cali - at least you don't have advance warning to get goosey...they hit and they're gone, except for aftershocks.
It is a very strongly worded warning. The Tampa NWS folks are very concerned it seems. Since Charley is strengthening they will likely take a big hit even if the storm comes in south of them.
see if any further updates move the strike probability bullseye to the south of Tampa. The weather channel dude seemed pretty confident.
We used to own 3 lots near Captiva (Cayo Costa?) sight unseen, thanks to an uncle that was a real estate speculator on Sanibel....I'm kinda glad the state of Florida made us (pretty much) sell it to them. They tried to steal them for a couple of years, but finally came around with a few thousand bucks.
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