Posted on 08/13/2004 6:56:12 AM PDT by JesseHousman
TAMPA, Fla. - With a "scary, scary" Hurricane Charley zeroing in on Florida's west coast Friday, state officials urged almost 2 million tourists and residents to evacuate and avoid the path of a storm that could submerge parts of this city's downtown and other neighboring areas.
Charley's expected 120 mph top sustained winds and massive storm surge could devastate coastal and low-lying areas in Tampa and St. Petersburg. Everything from waterfront condominium towers to vulnerable mobile homes were in danger on the Gulf Coast.
Charley's center was expected to pass west of the Florida Keys early Friday before hitting the Tampa Bay area later in the day, dumping heavy rain and possibly spawning sporadic tornadoes, Hugh Cobb, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said Thursday. About 6.5 million of Florida's 17 million residents were in Charley's projected path, the U.S. Census Bureau reported.
"It does have the potential of devastating impact. ... This is a scary, scary thing," said Gov. Jeb Bush, who had declared a state of emergency.
State meteorologist Ben Nelson said the surge could reach up to 16 feet in the Tampa area if Charley hits at 120 mph, making it a major hurricane at Category 3 strength.
About 1.9 million people from the Florida Keys north through the west coast have been advised to evacuate, although many will stay in their homes, said Kristy Campbell, spokeswoman at the state emergency management center. It was estimated that 1.1 to 1.5 million will be leaving their homes ahead of the storm, she said.
"In many areas, people are still leaving," Campbell said Friday.
Friday morning, the weather at the St. Petersburg/Clearwater International Airport was calm, said Jeff Clauss, an airport spokesman.
At 8 a.m., the hurricane was in the Florida Straits, 75 miles west of Key West.
Forecasters said Charley had top sustained winds of about 110 mph. It was moving north-northwest near 18 mph and was expected to strengthen, meteorologists said. Hurricane force winds extended outward 30 miles from the eye; tropical storm force winds went out 125 miles.
All the west coast of Florida's peninsula was under a hurricane warning, as was the lower Florida Keys. Tropical storm watches and warnings extended from the middle Keys to Cape Fear, N.C.
Most of the evacuations were in the counties of Hillsborough, which contains Tampa, and Pinellas, a peninsula that contains St. Petersburg. All residents of MacDill Air Force Base, on another peninsula in Tampa Bay, were ordered out with only essential personnel remaining. MacDill is home to U.S. Central Command, the nerve center of the war in Iraq.
"MacDill Air Force Base will probably be mostly underwater and parts of downtown Tampa could be underwater if we have a Category 3," Nelson said. "In a Category 3, you can almost get to the point where Pinellas County becomes an island."
Gary Vickers, Pinellas' emergency management chief, told people in evacuation zones there would be "a period of time where if you stay behind and you change your mind and you want to be rescued, no one can help you.
"We aren't going to go out on a suicide mission," he said.
Heavy traffic flowed Thursday afternoon away from the coast near Tampa in Florida's biggest evacuation request since 1999, when Hurricane Floyd prompted an order for a record 1.3 million people to evacuate the state's east coast.
Many residents on Florida's southwest coast tried to prepare for the worst, buying plywood to board up homes and stocking up on water, canned food and batteries to ride out Charley.
Beth Ciombor of Sarasota was at a Home Depot Thursday loading two sheets of plywood onto the top of her minivan while her 2-year-old son watched.
"It's very threatening," Ciombor said. "I'm on the verge of tears. It's so frightening."
In the Florida Keys, visitors and mobile home residents followed orders to leave the entire 100-mile-long island chain or report to shelters.
About 60 people slept at one Key West elementary school overnight, stretched out on blankets and mattresses in a hallway as a circular fan buzzed. Peter Berg, 45, from Vancouver, British Columbia, had been vacationing in Key West for a week when he and his wife were forced to leave their hostel.
"I keep telling myself it could be worse," he said.
Next to him, Audrey and Gregory Pace sat on the floor on blankets as their 4-year-old son, Stephen, watched the cartoon "Land Before Time IX" on a portable DVD player while sitting on a "Blue's Clues" sleeping bag. Gregory Pace said the family came to the shelter Thursday night because they had to leave their mobile home on nearby Stock Island.
He said their home sits beneath coconut trees, a dangerous situation with Charley approaching.
The coconuts "turn into bombs in storms," he said.
At dawn Friday, fisherman Manuel Garcia was trying to secure his boss's fishing boat, the Cowboy III, in the Stock Island marina, where heavy surf was pushing the vessel against a cement barrier.
"If the water comes up, I can do nothing," he said, smoking a thick cigar.
Power companies said they were mobilizing thousands of workers to prepare for widespread electricity outages, and out-of-state crews were being readied to rush to Florida.
On Thursday, Tropical Storm Bonnie came ashore in the Florida Panhandle, but its top sustained winds of 50 mph caused little damage. It weakened into a depression late Thursday and was no longer a threat, Cobb said.
(Associated Press writers Mitch Stacy in Tampa, David Royse in Apalachicola, Ken Thomas in Key West, Vickie Chachere in Sarasota and Rachel La Corte, Adrian Sainz and John Pain in Miami contributed to this report.)
If you're on Bellsouth.net (which is where I am), go to http://home.bellsouth.net/news then look on the right side of the page.
Each of the other services has a similar portal page. Check on the "News" link from that page to get access. The feed is in RealPlayer.
LOL. Methinks this is what NOAA would look like if after all the class-action lawyers sue for losing their homes on the Gold Coast.
Communism is so useful--look at all those high tech computers and maps!
Is your part of the Gulf Coast *really* that incapable of absorbing the impact of a Category 2/3 hurricane, and one that has a pretty fast forward speed (up to 20 mph at landfall) at that.
Two million called to evacuate? Flooding in downtown Tampa?
The only thing I can think of that can pose a serious problem is the storm surge, since the landfall point will likely be on the eastern side of the storm and the high forward speed adds a bit, too, but a 110-plus MPH storm that is racing through the landfall area (and will clear out just as quickly) isn't exactly extreme, wind-wise or rain-wise.
A Cat 2/3 (out of 5) storm should cause panic, say, in Maine (where hurricane preparedness is not even an issue) not along the Gulf coast (where it should be a way of life).
I daresay those in SE Louisiana, where I'm originally from, or Houston, where I now live, would be concerned but not "panicked" by this "scary, scary" storm.
What would they do if something like Camille plowed into SW Florida? There would be nothing left of the place!
When I first moved to Tampa, I met an elderly gentlement who had been in Tampa during the 1921 hurricane. He said that everything downtown was under water to the second floor. He seemed to have been quite affected by it. This isn't going to be pretty.
I hope my home can withstand 120 mile per hour gusts cause they're comin'.
LOoks like Tampa is in line for a direct hit if this thing doesn't move.
It looks like it's turning a little to the east. Then again, I'm probably not very good at reading these things.
http://www.970wfla.com/jacor-common/streaming_disclaimer.html
(Currently: Live Audio News in Regards to Evacs/Etc.)
More streaming weather-related info:
http://www.irlp.net/
http://www.voipwx.net/ - Skywarn / Hurricane Spotter Network
Tampa Area News Stations:
http://www.wtsp.com - Live stream local news
http://www.wfts.com
ttp://www.wftx.com
http://www.baynews9.com - Live streaming radar
http://www.sptimes.com
http://www.naplesnews.com
http://www.news-press.com
http://www.herald-tribune.com
Webcams:
http://www.naplesnet.com/webcam/webcam_index.htm
Other:
http://hurricanecity.com/ - thanks mhking
Especially in Tampa - St. Pete area you now have a cat2-3 storm moving a 10-16FT Storm Surge into a Bay that Opens to the South--- The Water will come in and pile up. Almost all the newer housing and all Condo's are built to withstand the winds, but wind doesn;t matter if the whole thing is under water.
Snowy: It looks like it's turning a little to the east. Then again, I'm probably not very good at reading these things.
Geometry is EVERYTHING now. Unlike a hurricane approaching the Atlantic coast from the east, the "dirty" side of the storm will be to the south of landfall instead of to the north. If Charley goes inland south of Tampa Bay, the worst winds will be out of the west and that area will be spared the worst of the storm surge (but someone else further to the south will get drilled).
Worst case - Charley glances off St. Pete and then runs right up the coast - then a large stretch of NW Florida will get bad storm surge, and the worst will get pushed up into Tampa Bay. And that's only a tracking difference of about 20-30 miles.
Good luck. If Charley comes straight into the Bay, you could be isolated there for 12-18 hours. I hope you're not too close to the water. I have some friends that have a house right on the Intercoastal Waterway facing Treasure Island. I'm hoping for the best, but they could get wet.
Very good question. I also wonder about those who build in California on the edge of a cliff and on stilts no less. They then scratch their heads when they see pictures on television of their houses sliding down the cliff.
I have in-laws 6 to 7 miles from the water in Sarasota. My mother-in-law is 'defecating masonry' right now.
Today, the bill is coming due.
I agree. I learned this trick in art class. I was looking at the animated picture closer to the beginning of this thread. Now, get a piece of paper, or any other straight edge. Line it up with the moving eye of the storm. My paper slants to the right (east). Completely scientific. ;-)
it it remains a cat 2, and unless she lives in the flood plain (at 5-7 miles from the ocean, she is far clear of the storm surge), she should be OK. biggest threat would be winds, hopefully she has no big trees near the house.
Unfortunately, I think we can expect to see some photos of heavy damage to the Tampa area. The storm surge from Charley is going to wipe some buildings from their foundations. Like you noted, it's the direction this storm is headed that is going to maximize that threat.
It should have been upgraded to Cat3 at 11am IMO, not sure what the NHC is thinking. They are running off old information (8 am dropsonde still).
Idiot.
Two million called to evacuate? Flooding in downtown Tampa?
The only thing I can think of that can pose a serious problem is the storm surge, since the landfall point will likely be on the eastern side of the storm and the high forward speed adds a bit, too, but a 110-plus MPH storm that is racing through the landfall area (and will clear out just as quickly) isn't exactly extreme, wind-wise or rain-wise.
As I noted in an earlier post, I have a friend with a house in western St. Petersburg (actually an area called South Pasadena). I've been there twice. It's beautiful, but it's also about two feet above sea level, and it faces the Intercoastal Waterway. There are a lot of people in similar areas, or in condos on the beach.
For years they have talked about how the whole area was just ripe for a massive disaster. Evacuation is constricted from the beaches and Pinellas County. The highest elevation in Pinellas County is only 46 feet above sea level. There are thousands of homes on landfill islands that are at the water's edge. And the storm surge piles up into the shallows around the Bay. So the downtown, waterfront, big home areas are particularly vulnerable to water that gets pushed into the Bay.
I don't remember the year, but a few years ago a tropical storm literally developed right at the mouth of the Bay. Virtually no warning; suddenly 35-45 knot winds pushing the water straight into the Bay. Most of the coastal St. Petersburg neighborhoods were cut off from "mainland" Pinellas County.
With that little bit of acquaintance with the area, I've always worried about what a full-strength hit would do to it. Charley may be just strong enough to give us an idea of how bad it could get, without actually getting that bad. Tonight will be very interesting. Of course, if Charley decides to come in a little south of the Bay, everything gets reversed. Bradenton and Sarasota and Venice could get hit hard, but they don't have the Bay to worry about, and the wind direction will push the water out of the Bay. And then everybody will comment on how lucky they were, and they still won't know how bad it could get.
The next 12 hours will be interesting, to say the least.
it will be upgraded.
its wobbling to the east now - closer to Ft Myers.
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