Snowy: It looks like it's turning a little to the east. Then again, I'm probably not very good at reading these things.
Geometry is EVERYTHING now. Unlike a hurricane approaching the Atlantic coast from the east, the "dirty" side of the storm will be to the south of landfall instead of to the north. If Charley goes inland south of Tampa Bay, the worst winds will be out of the west and that area will be spared the worst of the storm surge (but someone else further to the south will get drilled).
Worst case - Charley glances off St. Pete and then runs right up the coast - then a large stretch of NW Florida will get bad storm surge, and the worst will get pushed up into Tampa Bay. And that's only a tracking difference of about 20-30 miles.
I agree. I learned this trick in art class. I was looking at the animated picture closer to the beginning of this thread. Now, get a piece of paper, or any other straight edge. Line it up with the moving eye of the storm. My paper slants to the right (east). Completely scientific. ;-)
Unfortunately, I think we can expect to see some photos of heavy damage to the Tampa area. The storm surge from Charley is going to wipe some buildings from their foundations. Like you noted, it's the direction this storm is headed that is going to maximize that threat.