For New Jersey Republicans, an Inviting Target Vanishes

New York Times ^ | August 13, 2004 | MICHAEL SLACKMAN

[OESY]

For months New Jersey Republicans had smelled blood in the water and were lining up to take on Gov. James E. McGreevey. A state assemblyman, a state senator, a businessman, a small town mayor and perhaps a federal prosecutor were all considering the prospect of challenging the Democratic incumbent.

Mr. McGreevey had been viewed as vulnerable because of a series of investigations involving top aides, a major fund-raiser and his leading campaign contributor. And it seemed that a state that had turned to the Democratic column - with two Democratic United States senators, and both houses of the State Legislature as well as the governorship controlled by Democrats - might be ripe for a Republican governor.

But yesterday Mr. McGreevey took himself out of the water.

With his decision to resign effective Nov. 15 , Democrats and Republicans alike agreed that Mr. McGreevey bettered his party's chances of holding onto what is widely considered one of the nation's most powerful governorships.

In fact, Bret D. Schundler, the Republican opponent whom Mr. McGreevey trounced in 2001, and who has already announced his plans to run again, went on the radio yesterday and offered a conspiracy theory - suggesting that New Jersey Democrats were behind the pressure that forced Mr. McGreevey to resign.

In his speech yesterday, the governor said he was resigning because his disclosure that he had had an affair with a man would compromise his ability to govern. But aides to Mr. McGreevey, who identified the man as Golan Cipel, also said the governor had put him on the state payroll as a special adviser earning $110,000 a year, and that Mr. Cipel, who has since resigned, has threatened to file a lawsuit accusing Mr. McGreevey of sexual harassment.

"The Democratic bosses saw McGreevey as a sure loser and saw a way to get him out," Mr. Schundler said in an interview on the Sean Hannity radio program on WABC.

If potential Republican challengers have the most to lose by Mr. McGreevey's departure, then the State Senate president, Richard J. Codey, 57, a lawmaker for 30 years, has the most to gain. A career politician who was never widely discussed as a strong candidate to be the state's chief executive, Mr. Codey by law will take over as acting governor when Mr. McGreevey steps down.

Mr. McGreevey, though, is doing more than just handing off his office to Mr. Codey in November. He has crafted an exit strategy that will allow his successor to serve as governor for a year before he has to run, should he choose to seek a full term. Had Mr. McGreevey stepped down immediately, Mr. Codey would have served only until a special election could be held this November.

Yet even with the power of incumbency, there are far too many other variables in the New Jersey political field - the most significant of which is the state's senior United States senator, Jon S. Corzine, the former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs who bankrolled his own come-from-nowhere victory in 2000.

Mr. Corzine has said that he missed being an executive and that he was interested in running for governor. Democratic consultants who know Mr. Corzine well said last night that they did not expect him to decide whether to seek the governorship until after the November presidential election. If Senator John Kerry wins, he might consider Mr. Corzine for a cabinet position. But if Mr. Kerry loses, Mr. Corzine will almost certainly run for governor, the Democrats said. If he does, Mr. Codey will likely have been no more than a placeholder, with Democrats encouraging him not to run in the face of Mr. Corzine's nearly unlimited financial resources.

For the moment though, the New Jersey political landscape has been so drastically altered that no one would predict who will run or what voters will want in a candidate. Should Mr. Corzine not run, it is possible that Representative Robert E. Andrews, who represents Burlington, Gloucester and Camden counties in Congress, could challenge Mr. Codey, especially if he receives union backing, political consultants said.

Other dynamics are at work as well. While some Republicans began to call for Mr. McGreevey to step down immediately, sensing that would give their party the best chance to win, other Republicans said that to attack Mr. McGreevey now would be to run the risk of appearing mean-spirited.

Instead, these Republicans said, it would be wiser to wait a few days and do everything possible to focus the issue away from Mr. McGreevey's personal life and onto the allegations of a cover-up. "I think the problem that Republicans have is they got drawn into his personal behavior and stopped focusing on his policies," said Rick Shaftan, a Republican political consultant. "They can't resist attacking these targets."

Political experts said it was likely that several Republicans would enter the race, especially if Mr. Corzine did not. Though he has not said he would run, the United States attorney for New Jersey, Christopher J. Christi, is considered a strong contender for the Republican nomination.

Other likely candidates include Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano, the former Republican leader in the lower house, and Mayor Steve Lonergan of Bogota.

The Republicans know that it will be an uphill battle to beat Mr. Codey after he has a year in office. Generally speaking, incumbency is a significant advantage, both in primary and general elections, and that is especially true in New Jersey. Political consultants in both parties said that it was nearly impossible for a candidate to develop a statewide profile without holding a statewide office or having a very large bankroll.

"No one ever thought of Codey as a governor," said Jason Ercole, a Republican political consultant who often works in New Jersey. "It's a point on the political path I don't think anybody expected him to take or to be, but that doesn't mean after serving for a number of months he may not be looked at that way by the general public."

[OESY]

Memorandum
To: Schundler Coalition Leaders
From: Sal Risalvato
Date: March 11, 2004
Subject: Schundler v. McGreevey

A Perspective on Schundler v. McGreevey – NJ Statewide Research

I have attached the text of a memo I received concerning the results of a recent New Jersey political poll. The memo was written by Gene Ulm, a partner with Public Opinion Strategies – one of America’s leading political polling organizations. See link below.

The poll revealed:

1) That Jim McGreevey is the most vulnerable governor in America and that Bret Schundler is poised to beat him.

2) That if Bret Schundler runs for Governor, the odds of his winning the Republican nomination are extremely high.

3) That Bret’s property tax and school funding proposals are not just good policy, they are incredibly good political issues with the power to attract a huge number of Democrat and Independent voters to you.

4) That if Bret gets out his message on property taxes and school funding, he would likely win the governorship even if the Democrats replace Jim McGreevey with a stronger candidate like John Corzine, and even if the Democrats attack Bret savagely on divisive social issues.

These numbers tell us that Jim McGreevey cannot redeem himself with New Jersey’s voters. If Bret runs against him, Bret will win.

Since the Democrats cannot redeem McGreevey’s image, many political professionals believe they will focus on attacking the Republican candidates who enter the race for Governor. They will try to depict each Republican candidate as having no chance of victory so they can undermine Republican confidence and try to divide Republicans against one another. But these poll results suggest that this strategy will not work – that the voters have had it with Jim McGreevey and they ain’t buying him again.

Bret has been working to unify the Republican Party behind a practical, concrete solution to New Jersey’s property tax and school funding problems so he can position the Party for victory even if the Democrats ultimately change candidates. His enormous success in Democrat Jersey City was the result of his keeping focused on issues that everyone wanted to see addressed, and of his proposing workable solutions that almost everyone could unite behind. That is what Bret is doing now, and that is exactly what he should continue doing. Indeed, these poll results say that if Bret does continue doing what he is doing, and then decides to run for Governor, he will very likely be New Jersey’s next Governor.

I encourage you to share this information with as many members of your organization as possible – and to get involved with Bret’s “Empower The People” organization (sign up at www.empowerthepeople.org) as it works to lower your property taxes.

[tioga]

How about -- "For months NJ Gov. McIdiot lied to his constituents and lived a double life.....

[OpusatFR]

"In his speech yesterday, the governor said he was resigning because his disclosure that he had had an affair with a man would compromise his ability to govern."

Ah yes. Just putting a little lipstick on the pig as if only his sexual exploit is the reason for his resignation.

[2banana]

Democrat Gov. James E. McGreevey resigns amid massive scandal and graft and somehow that is bad for Republicans...?

[zencat]

Yep. It's just about politics to these folks. The immoral acts were only wrong in that it has a negatively impacts their party.

[OESY]

Jack McGreevey, who looks somewhat less than delighted, listens to his son, New Jersey Governor James E. McGreevey, as the governor announces his resignation August 12, 2004 at the Statehouse in Trenton, New Jersey. Governor McGreevey admitted that he had a homosexual affair and has been conflicted with his sexuality since adolescence. With the Governor are his wife, Dina Matos McGreevey, center left, and his mother Veronica. Governor McGreevey has two children. NO MAGS NO SALES NO ARCHIVE NO TELEVISION NO USE HARMFUL TO DEMOCRATS REUTERS/Matt Rainey/The Newark Star Ledger

[Non-Sequitur]

I'm waiting for Limbaugh to outline the Clinton involvement in all this.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Not so fast.

What matters is that the people of NJ get to elect their own Governor, whether some arbitrary deadline is completely blown or not.

That's what the Supreme Court of NJ said in '02 (well, what it really said is that the Democrats of NJ were entitled to a candidate on the ballot who had good poll numbers).

Sue NJ for a Republican candidate with good poll numbers on the ballot Nov 2 to replace an outgoing governor. Deadlines? We don't need to meet no stinkin' deadlines!

[stockpirate]

How about -- "He was involved in criminal activity which involved stealing government funds to pay his 'Prostitute' lover who was not qualified for the position, and paid him out of our government funds even after he was no longer employed by NJ" ---pun intended

[goldstategop]

New Jersey is a one-party town. Even a scandal or tax increases can no longer unseat the Democrats. They have an iron grip over the state's urban areas.

[wideawake]

AAAAARRRRGGGGHHHHH!!!!!

(1) McGreevey's spin - that he has resigned because he is gay and people just won't understand - has been completely and robotically adopted by every local media source.

(2) McGreevey appointed his boyfriend as head of NJ Homeland Security. This is an outrage that would have been roughly equivalent to Clinton making Monica Lewinsky FBI Director before details of their affair leaked out.

(3) McGreevey's closest fundraising crony Chuckie Kushner has not only violated campaign financing laws and fraud statutes left and right but he has impeded federal criminal investigations.

(4) McGreevey operative D'Amiano, a connected mob guy, extorted extra money from a developer who had already bribed McGreevey and McGreevey is on tape accepting the bribe in coded language.

(5) Although the Democrats violated the NJ State Constitution by replacing Torricelli with Lautenberg at the last minute, claiming that they had to do it or the electorate wouldn't have a "real choice", McGreevey has unethically gamed the timinmg of resignation so the Democrats can anoint his successor rather than holding an election.

This whole situation is a sleazy Democrat operation and it is succeeding beyond the Democrats' wildest hopes.

[Antoninus]

Unfortunately, he didn't vanish. He's still there until November 15.

It's a bloody outrage what the dems get away with in this state. For a guy to get up and say he's resigning... in 3 months? It's outrageous.

McSkeevey OUT NOW!

[goldstategop]

Of course. The RINOS in NJ are equally liberal and corrupt. If one had to choose, stick with the devil you know. They revel in the filth.

[KC_Conspirator]

Vanishing target? From what I understand that 4-5 people around McGreedy are being targeted in investigations and scandals, including 2 aides. This is not a vanishing target at all.

[Pharlap]

Actually, the Republicans now have an opportunity. The timing of Mcgreevey's resignation is pure Democrat politics intended to prevent an election (for a new governor) on November 2nd. But, there is a presidential election on that date. Bret Schundler should immediately begin campaigning for President Bush and remind voters that he has been prevented from running for governor because of the political chicanery of the New Jersey Democrat machine. New Jersey voters should be encouraged to vote for President Bush to send a message to the Democrat machine.

[Antoninus]

(1) McGreevey's spin - that he has resigned because he is gay and people just won't understand - has been completely and robotically adopted by every local media source.

This is disgusting beyond belief. It's how ALL the news stations in the Philly area were reporting the story last night, complete with vox populi clips of morons saying exactly the same thing: "It's a shame he had to resign because he's gay. People's personal lives should be kept separate from their public lives. Blah, blah, blah." And the reporter piously opines afterwards, "Everyone at this diner felt pretty much the same way."

The propaganda coming out of the TV is off-the-scales this election. Thanks, McCain/Feingold.

[Shaddap IV]

Idiotic story. It's like saying that the British Navy was disappointed that the Bismarck was sunk because it meant that they wouldn't get to look for it any more.

[KellyAdmirer]

The NY Times is licking its chops, seeing this as another Torricelli maneuver. The significance of this is that it hurts Republicans? Make me laugh.

[stockpirate]

Here is an excellent article that shows his problem is more than sexual:

http://www.app.com/app2001/story/0,21133,656898,00.html