Posted on 08/13/2004 6:19:54 AM PDT by OESY
For months New Jersey Republicans had smelled blood in the water and were lining up to take on Gov. James E. McGreevey. A state assemblyman, a state senator, a businessman, a small town mayor and perhaps a federal prosecutor were all considering the prospect of challenging the Democratic incumbent.
Mr. McGreevey had been viewed as vulnerable because of a series of investigations involving top aides, a major fund-raiser and his leading campaign contributor. And it seemed that a state that had turned to the Democratic column - with two Democratic United States senators, and both houses of the State Legislature as well as the governorship controlled by Democrats - might be ripe for a Republican governor.
But yesterday Mr. McGreevey took himself out of the water.
With his decision to resign effective Nov. 15 , Democrats and Republicans alike agreed that Mr. McGreevey bettered his party's chances of holding onto what is widely considered one of the nation's most powerful governorships.
In fact, Bret D. Schundler, the Republican opponent whom Mr. McGreevey trounced in 2001, and who has already announced his plans to run again, went on the radio yesterday and offered a conspiracy theory - suggesting that New Jersey Democrats were behind the pressure that forced Mr. McGreevey to resign.
In his speech yesterday, the governor said he was resigning because his disclosure that he had had an affair with a man would compromise his ability to govern. But aides to Mr. McGreevey, who identified the man as Golan Cipel, also said the governor had put him on the state payroll as a special adviser earning $110,000 a year, and that Mr. Cipel, who has since resigned, has threatened to file a lawsuit accusing Mr. McGreevey of sexual harassment.
"The Democratic bosses saw McGreevey as a sure loser and saw a way to get him out," Mr. Schundler said in an interview on the Sean Hannity radio program on WABC.
If potential Republican challengers have the most to lose by Mr. McGreevey's departure, then the State Senate president, Richard J. Codey, 57, a lawmaker for 30 years, has the most to gain. A career politician who was never widely discussed as a strong candidate to be the state's chief executive, Mr. Codey by law will take over as acting governor when Mr. McGreevey steps down.
Mr. McGreevey, though, is doing more than just handing off his office to Mr. Codey in November. He has crafted an exit strategy that will allow his successor to serve as governor for a year before he has to run, should he choose to seek a full term. Had Mr. McGreevey stepped down immediately, Mr. Codey would have served only until a special election could be held this November.
Yet even with the power of incumbency, there are far too many other variables in the New Jersey political field - the most significant of which is the state's senior United States senator, Jon S. Corzine, the former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs who bankrolled his own come-from-nowhere victory in 2000.
Mr. Corzine has said that he missed being an executive and that he was interested in running for governor. Democratic consultants who know Mr. Corzine well said last night that they did not expect him to decide whether to seek the governorship until after the November presidential election. If Senator John Kerry wins, he might consider Mr. Corzine for a cabinet position. But if Mr. Kerry loses, Mr. Corzine will almost certainly run for governor, the Democrats said. If he does, Mr. Codey will likely have been no more than a placeholder, with Democrats encouraging him not to run in the face of Mr. Corzine's nearly unlimited financial resources.
For the moment though, the New Jersey political landscape has been so drastically altered that no one would predict who will run or what voters will want in a candidate. Should Mr. Corzine not run, it is possible that Representative Robert E. Andrews, who represents Burlington, Gloucester and Camden counties in Congress, could challenge Mr. Codey, especially if he receives union backing, political consultants said.
Other dynamics are at work as well. While some Republicans began to call for Mr. McGreevey to step down immediately, sensing that would give their party the best chance to win, other Republicans said that to attack Mr. McGreevey now would be to run the risk of appearing mean-spirited.
Instead, these Republicans said, it would be wiser to wait a few days and do everything possible to focus the issue away from Mr. McGreevey's personal life and onto the allegations of a cover-up. "I think the problem that Republicans have is they got drawn into his personal behavior and stopped focusing on his policies," said Rick Shaftan, a Republican political consultant. "They can't resist attacking these targets."
Political experts said it was likely that several Republicans would enter the race, especially if Mr. Corzine did not. Though he has not said he would run, the United States attorney for New Jersey, Christopher J. Christi, is considered a strong contender for the Republican nomination.
Other likely candidates include Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano, the former Republican leader in the lower house, and Mayor Steve Lonergan of Bogota.
The Republicans know that it will be an uphill battle to beat Mr. Codey after he has a year in office. Generally speaking, incumbency is a significant advantage, both in primary and general elections, and that is especially true in New Jersey. Political consultants in both parties said that it was nearly impossible for a candidate to develop a statewide profile without holding a statewide office or having a very large bankroll.
"No one ever thought of Codey as a governor," said Jason Ercole, a Republican political consultant who often works in New Jersey. "It's a point on the political path I don't think anybody expected him to take or to be, but that doesn't mean after serving for a number of months he may not be looked at that way by the general public."
Well, that would be a homophobic and intolerant charge.
Now that McGreevy is part of an Untouchable group, all criticisms shall cease.
Excellent, Pharlap. Very nice thinking. Rovian, perhaps.
(steely)
Courageous? He outed himself with barely hours to spare before someone else outed him.
This is like a criminal "courageously" pleading guilty before he's convicted so he can bargain his sentence down.
DemocRats want the people to choose unless they think the people won't choose who they want. Then they will SELECT the governor.
It is bad because of the short memories of the voters. The rallying cry for the GOP for the next few weeks ought to be "We want a governor that is ELECTED not SELECTED!"
However, the replacement for the governor is in the state constitution. Was the procedure for replacement in the state constution or was it just state law? Of course, the NJSC could say that it is all moot because the office is not vacant.
Brilliant.
With some coordination, the Republicans can pull of serious gains statewide in the Nov. elections. We are faced with a thoroughly corrupt and criminally incompetent Democrat party, there needs to be focus on the corruption, leaving the "lifestyle" issue attacks aside.
As usual the NY Times gets is wrong. The gov does not vanish until Nov. Everyday he remains in office just holding it for RATS control he is a target.
How cute. Is that like saying I am an Italian American, an Irish American, a German American etc.? It has a nice patriotic ring, doesn't it? (sarcasm)
Unless he leaves before his set resignation date, the blood will still be in the water until November. As this scandal grows, and the 'gov' sticks around, this can only hurt the Dems.
The catch phrase for the Gov is--"Not straight--but completely crooked".
He is leaving office not because he is gay but rather because he is up to his eyeballs in activities that will certainly land him in jail.
Seem like this is the perfect time for RATS to demonstrate they are truly gay sensitive when it matters. How in the world is it that this Gov. has to resign for "paying his gay lover to do no work" while Jesse Jackson is still running his tax exempt organization after stealing from it and its taxper supported exemptions to pay his heterosexual--on the payroll-- lover (and mother of his child). Unless the RATS want to be unequal and clearly gay bashing--Jesse should resign as well. or is it only homosexual crooks that pay the price?
In their dreams....
More truthfully, he should have said, "I am a Corrupt-American."
Unfortunately, we have in New Jersey another Torricelli-Lautenberg situation, as others have pointed out. The question is, Will Jersey voters notice?
New Jesrsey politics have painted the state as a corrupt cesspool; for the residents of this state to continue to be supportive of this Democratic bull**** is absurd. They are getting the government and leaders they deserve.
Excellent, but consideration and priority should be given to throwing this rotting fish on the doorstep of the SCNJ for the sake of the national Republican Party, in advance of the upcoming RNC shindig right across the river.This is a statewide replay of the national Filegate scandal scenario- a partisan (Democrat-run, naturally) legislature which declines to do its duty rather than to hurt the Democratic Party. Clinton should have been impeached for filegate, just as surely as McGreevey should be impeached for an illicit sexual relationship with a high-paid subordinate (and Heaven knows what else). Open and shut case, either way.
With a record like his, McGreevey is a natural for the national Democratic ticket:McGreevey:What chance would a mere flip-flopping, slippery, traitorous, "war hero" have stood in the Democratic primaries against that slogan?Because he not only isn't straight,
he's completely crooked.
He has a homo affect.
He pushed the civil unions through.
McGreevey broke ranks with the DNC to endorse him ahead of the primaries.
Dean's wife quite famously has almost nothing to do with him.
Is that the real caption? If so, that's hilarious!
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