Posted on 08/12/2004 10:28:34 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
Arnold Schwarzenegger (news - web sites) should be one of President Bush (news - web sites)'s secret weapons this fall. He's a popular and charismatic Republican governor with star power, a Kennedy wife and appeal to Democrats in his home state of California and beyond. Instead, the "Arnold factor" in this campaign may come down to political body language.
Will the two macho politicians, whose relationship has sometimes been strained, be able to convince California voters that they are on the same page when they differ on many cultural issues and Schwarzenegger is balking at campaigning for Bush outside his state?
Will Californians see the warm chemistry of John Kerry (news - web sites) and John Edwards (news - web sites), or the détente Bush has reached with former rival John McCain? Or is California out of reach for Bush anyway?
Although Kerry has double-digit leads in recent polls, Bush allies still think Schwarzenegger's clout could turn things around. He's the state's most popular governor in almost 30 years with an approval rating of 65%, according to a Field Poll released Tuesday. "Nothing is more important to us in the Bush campaign than Arnold Schwarzenegger's success. Nothing," says Gerry Parsky, chairman of Bush's California campaign.
But the relationship between the two camps has been tense. Some of the governor's advisers remain miffed that Bush did not give Schwarzenegger much help in the 2003 campaign and say the administration has been slow to help the state with its budget problems.
Schwarzenegger will have a prime-time speaking slot at the Republican convention. He'll appear with Bush this Thursday at a GOP fundraiser in Santa Monica. But Bush's trip to the state is his first since March.
The Bush campaign would love to put Schwarzenegger onstage with the president in closely contested states, but Schwarzenegger says he won't be able to campaign outside California. "Since I'm governor now, I have to really work for the state of California," he told National Public Radio last week.
Schwarzenegger is close to the first President Bush, who made the bodybuilder-actor head of his Council on Physical Fitness. Last month, when the senior Bush passed through Sacramento, Schwarzenegger visited his mentor. But the former president, who tries to stay out of his son's way, is not playing intermediary.
Allies of both men say talk of friction is overblown. "The governor will do anything he can to help" except campaign for Bush outside the state, says Pat Clarey, Schwarzenegger's chief of staff. "They have developed a friendship," says Karl Rove, Bush's top political adviser.
"It's true that early on, the Bush White House was not enthusiastically supportive of the recall process," says Rep. David Dreier (news, bio, voting record), a California Republican who chaired Schwarzenegger's campaign and co-chairs Bush's California effort. "People have a tendency to really exaggerate this schism. ... They both very much like each other."
Advisers to both say the climate has improved in the past couple months - an acknowledgment that things haven't always been great. Schwarzenegger's aides note that the governor sent flowers to Bush for his birthday last month and they had a friendly chat when Bush called to say thanks.
Differing opinions
Competing priorities and real or perceived grievances are an obstacle to an alliance that might have given Bush a chance to capitalize on Schwarzenegger's appeal:
• Schwarzenegger led a successful 2002 fight for passage of a California ballot proposal to fund public schools' after-school programs. Bush's 2004 budget proposed cutting funds for such programs. Schwarzenegger testified against the cuts in Congress, which restored some money.
• When California activists got enough signatures to schedule a recall election, aiming to oust Democratic Gov. Gray Davis (news - web sites), Schwarzenegger said he was thinking about joining the list of candidates to replace him. Schwarzenegger advisers, who wouldn't be identified because of the touchiness of the subject, say he wanted Bush's support before announcing he'd run. It didn't happen. The day after the announcement, Bush said only that the actor would "be a good governor."
When he was asked if he would campaign for Schwarzenegger, Bush avoided a direct answer. "I will never arm-wrestle Arnold Schwarzenegger," he said. "I'm confident the citizens of California will sort all this out." Bush did not make any campaign appearances.
It's difficult to know whether Schwarzenegger wanted Bush's help and didn't get it or whether his advisers believed he would be better off if Bush kept his distance.
A high-ranking Bush adviser who refused to be quoted by name because of the sensitivity of the relationship says Schwarzenegger's aides didn't want Bush to have a prominent role. They "told us it was vital for him to be seen as unconnected to Republican or national politics," the adviser says. Bush postponed his California fundraisers to ensure that Schwarzenegger didn't have to compete with him for donations, and he encouraged donors outside California to contribute to Schwarzenegger, the adviser says.
• After he took office, Schwarzenegger irritated some Bush aides by saying repeatedly that he expected the administration to help ease his state's budget crunch. On NBC's Meet the Press in February, Schwarzenegger said Bush's chances of winning California were "directly related to how much he will do for our state."
Bush advisers say they couldn't cut bureaucratic corners to immediately send money in a time of record federal budget deficits because they would have been accused of playing politics to help the new governor look good.
People in Schwarzenegger's camp, in turn, were annoyed that the White House didn't help more quickly. They thought Bush would want to be seen as aiding California because positive news coverage would improve his image there.
When the administration came through in May, Schwarzenegger's office didn't hold a high-profile news conference. Instead, he issued an announcement that agreements with the federal government would mean $455 million in budget savings. Schwarzenegger didn't mention Bush but thanked the "Bush administration for their willingness to work with me."
Schwarzenegger also hoped the federal government would buy back 36 oil leases from private companies and end drilling at those sites. Schwarzenegger's aides say the administration has been receptive, but the issue is tied up in legal proceedings and has not been resolved.
• Schwarzenegger is not a Bush Republican. He's conservative when it comes to spending and making government smaller, but he supports abortion rights and opposes a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.
Nearly one in five California Democrats voted for him. His continuing popularity, despite a recent battle with Democrats in the Legislature over a budget, stems in part from the perception that he's above partisanship. His wife, Maria Shriver, is not just a Democrat but a member of the Kennedy family. While Schwarzenegger's job-approval rating is 65% in the state, Bush's is only 41% there. Aides to Bush and Schwarzenegger say talk of a feud is just low-level staff grumbling and gossip. The high-ranking Bush adviser says, "The president's not even aware of it."
"There isn't anything there," says a top official on Schwarzenegger's staff who talks often with Bush campaign strategists. Like other aides, the official wouldn't speak on the record for fear of exaggerating the perception.
Little party loyalty in California
California has 55 of the 270 Electoral College (news - web sites) votes needed to win the presidency. Since the senior Bush carried it 16 years ago, every Republican presidential candidate has said that the state was winnable. Democrats won every time.
Four years ago, the younger Bush thought he had an outside chance to surprise Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites) in California. He made more than a dozen trips to the state and spent millions. Gore, who invested little, won by 1.3 million votes.
Bush's views on abortion and gay marriage and his industry-friendly environmental policies put him at odds with many of the independent suburban voters who make the difference in statewide elections. Many of those voters supported Schwarzenegger, but they rejected conservative Republicans in the last two governor's races: Dan Lungren in 1998 and Bill Simon in 2002.
Bush ads are on national cable channels, but he hasn't bought ads in the state. Nor has he targeted ads to issues that preoccupy California voters, such as immigration. The Bush campaign has six paid staffers in the state, compared with 13 in Ohio, which is smaller but more hotly contested. But Schwarzenegger's win showed that party loyalty means little to Californians, and that gives Republicans hope. "California voters are not intensely partisan. They respond to the times," says Wayne Johnson, a GOP political strategist in Sacramento.
"Republicans have elected a governor and closed the registration gap between Republicans and Democrats to the smallest since the 1930s," Rove says. "California's the land of opportunity."
Even so, Mark Baldassare of the Public Policy Institute of California, a non-partisan think tank that does statewide polling, says Bush isn't benefiting from Schwarzenegger's popularity.
"Schwarzenegger has governed as an independent, as an outsider," he says. "His appeal to voters outside his party comes from saying, 'I'm not part of the establishment.' Bush is part of that establishment."
Say what you will about Arnold, I do think he could pull CA into play for Dubya.
I doubt that he has that much juice... but he can't hurt. The American people usually get it right in IMPORTANT elections.
I think you are wrong here. Arnold rid California of Grey Davis. Arnold is going to ask for the vote. With the exception of some daisies in SF and the Streisand factor, Bush can very well force Kerry into spending a lot of time and money there.
California is in play. The Dems are trying to pull a Florida, Kerry already won, don't bother voting.
I agree. All it takes is time and money in Cali.
A pretty big gap to close. But Arnold would be the only one who has a chance of narrowing it.
In fact, Kerry is running TV ads here in California. You have to wonder why unless he's not sure of the state.
He goes straight to the people via "personal" phone calls and mailings. Yes, he is NOT a conservative by any means. He was elected to get CA financially healthy, and so far so good. If he does his thing to help Bush, as he helped himself, CA just may turn into a red state. We'll worry about the rest later.
In fact, Kerry is running TV ads here in California.
I thought that even on the national cable channels like CNN, FOx News, etc. the commercials differed by cable company and market. So in effect two people in two different states would be watching the same show, often with different commercials. Although yes, some of the commercials are also nationwide on cabel. What proportion of loca/national commercials are on the national cabel channels is something I do not know.
I don't buy this friction story at all. Schwarzenegger may be far left of what I'd like him to be on certain issues, but for heaven's sake, look at his dealings with McClintock after he won office. He made at least one appearance helping McClinton raise money. I just don't see Schwarzenegger as a person who holds vendettas or grudges. He'll be campaigning for Bush and Newsmax and USA today should writing stories about fantasies.
LOL, like 1992 and 1996?
Kali would once again be in deep doo doo if hanoi john's tax hikes hit them. It would be in Arnie's best interest from this standpoint to back GW as hard as possible.
Perhaps Californians, just like Former New York Mayor Ed Koch has concluded, though socially liberal, prefer SAFETY over their social agenda.
If so, then perhaps, like Koch, they will conclude that having a President committed to the battle against enemies of America is preferable to the kind of appeasement that led us to the nightmare of 9/11.
Koch is right! The elements of the Far Left Democratic Party will dominate Kerry/Edwards' policies, and that will not bode well for security and safety of Californians, or the rest of America.
Just a...funny choice for a birthday present from one married, middle-aged man to another. Imagine the thought process here: choose to send a fifth of Jack, a new set of golf clubs, two tickets to a Rangers-Athletics game...or flowers.
LOL
By the way, this is just a fun little post pointing out something I found to be ironic and is not meant as an indirect way of questioning Arnold.
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