Posted on 08/11/2004 2:48:37 PM PDT by Republican Red
No matter how certain it looks that Bush will be re-elected, we all know that the Democrats are going to use every trick in the book (the one they wrote) to steal this election. Forget the polls and the pundits. I'm relying on the only thing that got Bush there in the first place--Prayer.
Didn't some dem judge or somebody indict a high ranking Bush official a few days before the election? This could account for this miss.
They will rush out and vote in record numbers for whatever democrat is on the ticket.
That's my call as well. Like Dukakis (who was crushing Bush Sr. at this stage), Kerry will hit a negative tipping point once the public more fully gets to know him. His ardent supporters will lose heart, the GOP base will be incredibly motivated, and the sheep and underinformed will follow Bush since that's the way the wind is blowing.
I'm an optimist, but a realistic one. And I think in December of this year, the press will laugh at anyone who thought Kerry ever had a chance.
Take nothing for granted!
Plan to vote. Make plans for transportation, time, and place.
Tell your friends to vote.
Spread the truth, and spread it far and wide.
QUESTION: Many of us (I live in Pennsylvania) have by choice had our phones placed on "Do not call lists". This is so we will not be harassed by fundraisers, product pushers, etc. I assume this also is the reason I have not been called
by anyone asking me who I plan to vote for.
If pollsters are blocked out by literally thousands, how
can these polls be accurate in any sense of the word?
Ahhh---Finally, a headline to bring a smile to the soul.
Typically, this means a 95% confidence interval around the point estimate, plus or minus the standard error. In other words, the real number will be outside of that interval only 1 time out of 20.
"If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong."
Kinda like the "gay marriage" issue will turn out the believers.
Amen! Campaign like tomorrow is election day!
Yeah, they indicted former Secretary of State Al Haig! But the real reason the model blew the 92 race was Ross Perot's historic showing for a third party, drawing disproportionately from 41. Without Perot, Clinton would have remained a little-know governor from a small southern state. His ignominious place in history is safe, as is a warm place after he leaves this earth. Perot, that is.
"Greenspan is trying along with the Arabs to sabotage Bush.
Twice they raised rates now before an election and they did not do that for years. "
You know why? Because the economy is improving! So his raising of the rates is a sign that greenspan believes the economy has been and will continue to get better. He's even said so.
Wall street knows it too.
bookmarked
Get out all voters! Don't take anyone's so-called "expert word" for it, and become compacent. Here in southcentral Penna, I'm taking 3-4 neighbors and employees to the polls, in the early morning on Nov 2.
"This is why Fair's method predicted that GHWB would beat Clinton. Because although the economy had turned around before Nov 1992, the public didn't recognize the improvement til after."
-- No. He mispredicted that one due to the Perot Factor. He got 18% of the popular vote and up to 24% in some key states, including 23% in CA (Bush won CA in '88). If Perot didn't run GHWB would have won, bottom line. Furthermore, Fair's model would have still been accurate.
"The Fair model's failure to take third parties into consideration may account for its failure to predict Bush's 1992 loss, when third-party candidate Ross Perot disproportionately hurt Bush, and Al Gore's loss in 2000, when Ralph Nader disproportionately hurt Gore."
-- How can you compare Perot's 18% with Nader's 3%???
Perot wasn't included and it screwed up the entire equation.
The Jewish vote in florida is about 3 - 4%, not chump change.
Polls this far out may be off but why then is money spent on running them? Who is throwing away the money?
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