POLLING THE SWIFTVETS AD

The Corner blog posting (NationalReview.com) ^ | August 11 2004 | Katherine Lopez (KJL)

[plushaye]

August 11, 2004

Release of: Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates 703-684-4510

“Swift Boat “controversy” gets Voters’ attention and nicks Kerry”

ALEXANDRIA, VA – Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (FMA), a Republican polling and strategic consulting firm based in Alexandria, VA, has just completed their second likely voter survey with interviews conducted ONLY in the 19 battleground states. The battleground states are defined as those in which the Bush and Kerry campaigns have been focusing their paid media efforts throughout the campaign.

Nearly 6 in 10 likely voters claim that they that they recently saw, read or heard something about the TV ad “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth” released and began airing in several key battleground states questioning the truthfulness of Senator Kerry’s Vietnam War record. Among those who claimed to have seen, read or heard something about the ad, a majority overall and among undecided voters said it would not impact their vote either way. However to the extent it did impact voting intentions, it was a negative for Sen. Kerry by as much as nearly a 3 to 1 margin.

“Make no mistake -- controversy surrounding potential “dirty laundry” still sells in American politics and this is a sterling example of it. But most surprising is that despite Sen. McCain’s swift and very public repudiation of this ad and the lingering questions on the veracity of the charges, it still ends up being a net negative for Kerry – especially among crucial undecided voters. In a close race where every little bit counts, Kerry can’t afford to sustain too many minor hits like this.” said Tony Fabrizio, who served as chief pollster for Bob Dole’s ’96 Presidential campaign.

“Recently, have you seen, read or heard anything about a TV ad being aired by a group of Vietnam Veterans who question the truthfulness of Sen. John Kerry’s Vietnam War record?”

Overall 2 Way Undecided 3 Way Undecided Yes 57.6% 48.5% 38.3% No 35.4 42.1 45.1 DK/Refused 7.0 9.4 16.6

ASKED ONLY OF THOSE AWARE: “And did what you saw, read or heard make you MORE likely or LESS likely to vote for John Kerry for President? If it didn’t impact how you would vote, just say so.”

Overall 2 Way Undecided 3 Way Undecided More Likely 19.4% 10.9% 9.5% No Impact 50.8 51.1 56.2 Less Likely 27.1 29.9 24.1 DK/Refused 2.7 8.0 10.3 Net +/- -7.7% -19.0% -14.6%

About the Poll

The telephone survey was conducted in the 19 battleground states in which the Bush and Kerry campaigns have focused their paid media efforts to this point. The sample of 1,000 likely Presidential voters was conducted on August 8-9, 2004 and has a margin of error of +/-3.1% at the 95% confidence interval. Respondent selection was at random within predetermined geographic units to reflect actual electoral vote allotment to each state. The battleground states used for the survey were AR, AZ, CO, FL, IA, LA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NH, NM, NV, OH, OR, PA, WA, WI, WV.

[HouTom]

I think McCain's sensitive point on this is that he had his own problems as one of the "Keating 5" and was able to come back. I think he feels he earned forgiveness and that it shouldn't be a fair criticism anymore. It seems to make sense of why he is such a zealot about campaign finance reform.

This situation plays into those sympathies.

[swilhelm73]

bttt

[wasnova]

"this is something you should expect from McCain"

Understood, but this was as low as he could go; particularly when he had planned to be campaigning in person with W over the next few days.

Anyone know if that's still happening?

I wouldn't think that Bush would presently share a forum with him. Because of McCain, this issue now has to play itself out first. Maybe W shouldn't have counted on him, but this was clearly a low blow by McCain.

[DoctorZIn]

This article has been posted to DoctorZin’s New News Blog!