Tropical Storm Charley About to Become Hurricane

National Hurricane Center ^ | 8/11/2004 | Forecaster Pasch

[Pyro7480]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

...CHARLEY BECOMES A HURRICANE...RAIN BANDS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT MUCH OF JAMAICA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 993 MB...29.31 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TODAY...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHARLEY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[Gabz]

None of those evacs surprise me - I'm quite familiar with the area.

[Gabz]

Good Luck.


I've got to go out for awhile, but will be back a little later.

[onyx]

New update due any minute.
Grand Cayman is getting pounded.
I know that much. Daughter's
telephone service is down.

[Gabz]

Ouch - I'll be thinking about her and will check back in a bit later.

[onyx]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 121501 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

CORRECTED FOR ADVISORY NUMBER FROM 12 TO 13

...CHARLEY GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. THE
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE
SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO
...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS FOR JAMAICA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...INFORMATION FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND RADAR FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 40 KM... NORTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.7 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[NautiNurse]

Yikes! If the storm stays on current track, Pinellas EMO said the storm surge in Tampa Bay could reach 14 feet! Storm surge for the barrier islands would be about 10ft. They are predicting low Cat 3 at landfall.

[NautiNurse]

It's so tough when communications are down during the storm. A very, very long wait. Hang in there.

[nmh]

I just called Continental. They haven't canceled flights yet but I would have to cancel by 10:45am tomorrow and then reschedule for the same class and it would be an even exchange. I will now call down to Florida and leave a message on their machine letting them know we may be rescheduling so if they are gone or still there they know our plans may be changing. I'll also send an e-mail incase they have no phone service. I hesitate to just make the change since my husband is aware of my reluctance. He'll be coming back from Europe late this afternoon and I'll let him make the cancellation/reschedule decision.

The airlines told me that Bonnie will hit today and Charley will definitely hit that area tomorrow. She advised me to definitely cancel and reschedule.

[onyx]

They'll be alright.
She's been thru this before
and she's always prepared.
It's the foolhardy who go outdoors. :)

[onyx]

I always travel on Continental.
They're good.
You won't get cheated.

[onyx]

Her cell works now as does her land line.
A man from Cayman Brac was interviewed on
her local TV station and he said the clouds
moving toward Grand Cayman are absolutely black.

My daughter said thus far they have rain and some wind
but the real storm is due to hit within the next 2-3 hours.

Be safe yall.

[NautiNurse]

Just found out that all airlines are offering flight plan changes for the storms--with the exception of Delta. My cousin was due home from Chicago tomorrow night. He working to get back tonight.

[onyx]

With the exception of Delta.
That figures. Somehow I always
asscociate Delta with CNN. The Atlanta hub.

[Libertarian444]

MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR PINELLAS COUNTY - FOR EVACUATION LEVELS A, B, & C - for 6 p.m. today pending approval by Pinellas County Commission

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/08/12/Weather/Pinellas_County_under.shtml

[Old Sarge]

In 1995, Hurricane Erin shut down the Magic Kingdom. It was the ONLY time it ever happened.

Missus and I were working there at the time. She had the day off from the park, but I had to go in to the hotel and handle the guests.

[Old Sarge]

I re-post this from another storm thread - I thought it might be pertinent, since this is becoming the Official Storm Thread.

This is a redacted blog entry I just received from my sister, living east of McDill AFB near Tampa:

---

Today is thursday--Charlie is not supposed to hit till late tomorrow afternoon. Left for walmart at 7am today--with my list of how to survive the camping thing. No water at walmart, no batteries, no flashlights and no propane tanks. Got all my groceries there. They are about out of everything. then went to home depot for the lamp oil and batteries and propane..SOLD OUT!

Went to winn dixie--no parking space anywhere. So went to walgreens and found the batteries and lamp oil--the time is now 10:20am thursday and (husband) is still out looking for propane.

I have to work from 1 to 10:30 tonight. (Friend) worked at publix till after midnight last night and they called her in at 8am today. The stores have lines a mile long and the shelves are going empty quick.

(Daughter) has decided to stick out the hurricane at her house by herself. She has to be on hospital staff all day tomorrow. I told her to put up her patio furniture and anything else out side. She will come her after work today to pick up some food and candles and batteries. (Son-in-law) is in Kiwait (sp) having a fit. I told her to pack up her papers for (Son-in-law) and the cats and get out of there and she won't do it.

Sarasota just announced that they have MANDATORY evacuations not voluntary. McDill is now empty and CENTCOM has moved. Our evacuations and school closings will be at noon. (Husband) just got back and got the propane..Found it at Sports Aurhority.

Have to duct tape the windows tomorrow. Gotta pull out trash cans and flower pots and anything else laying around outside. Have to tie down the furniture on the porch. Super shock the pool for water to wash. I can always boil it and use it to cook with if I have too. We should be fine unless a tree falls on the house. the worry we have!

(Daughter) needs to make up her mind--if she stays she might not be able to get here later with lines and trees down.

Laptop and cell phones are charged and ready too. I'll keep in touch as this gones on. (Son)

[Pyro7480]

I just thought of something. The hurricane hunters regularly go into what is probably considered Cuban airspace. I wonder what the "arrangements" are for that. Anyway, Cuba probably couldn't afford to send a couple of their aging fighters against a plane that can handle hurricanes.

[Old Sarge]

Updated Blog Entry, as of 1200:

350,000 people mandatory evacauation in pinnilas county--that's st. pete-clearwater-tarpon springs--they are all coming to brandon--My God!!!

[nmh]

Thanks. I'm anxious for my husband to get home to do this. COnsidering the situation ... it would be better if he made the changes asap. He is aware of my reluctance to go to Florida.

[nmh]

I suspect Delta will have to comply with the Gov.. I called down to Fort Myers and they have asked people NOT to come to Florida right now. You may want to inform Delta about this and make the flight changes.