China Rapidly Modernizes for War With U.S.

NewsMax ^ | Aug. 10, 2004 | Alexandr Nemets

[hedgetrimmer]

I think they are serious. The current wargaming in the Asia Pacific is all about preparation and deterrance.

[hedgetrimmer]

The war with China will be fought everywhere but the Straits of Formosa.

China's vaunted asymmetric warfare.

[jamesissmall218]

I really do not see Russia and China joing forces or working together. Russia may right now be giving this and that to the Chinese, but in the long run China is bad news for Russia. Why? Because just north of China is Siberia - literally millions of square miles of nearly unpopulated land teeming with natural resources, especially oil. What does China need? Space and oil. In the long run, Russia's interests lay with the only country that can help it and that has an interest in helping it, and that country is the United States. As long as Russia doesn't slip into a new dictatorship (which it may), Russia and the US will eventually drift towards cooperation and perhaps even a formal alliance because of the US's need for oil from somewhere other than the middle east and because of Russia's need for protection.

[ctdonath2]

The goal of communism is world domination.

'tis a basic truth we must not forget. Unfortunately, we have forgotten.

[hedgetrimmer]

Taiwan is not worth millions of lives

America values human life. This value of human life is the basis of our Constitutional government. Taiwan is an ally. We don't have a choice, IMHO.

[Gorjus]

This is my battle plan for the invasion of Taiwan.

Not bad over all. Certainly the political aspects are paramount. However, I offer a couple of things for you to think about:

First, there will be a blockade of Taiwan. It will start off without any official declaration. Ships headed to Taiwan will be attacked without warning - probably by submarines. The US will make all sorts of angry noises and will move forces into the area, but we won't actively attack any Chinese forces until US units are attacked, and they won't be. Eventually, after Taiwan strikes at Chinese targets - probably PLAN ships in port - the Chinese will openly declare a blockage of Taiwan. It will be covered with words like 'quarantine' as the US used in the Cuban missile crisis, and it will be very strictly limited to ships headed to or from Taiwan and Taiwan Navy warships.

Second - and in parallel, not series - Chinese agents will attack US civilian targets. Look for a neutral-flagged cargo vessel entering San Francisco Bay to take out the Golden Gate Bridge. This aspect of bringing the war to the US won't be limited to support for anti-US forces in the Americas, but direct (through agents, but not through or in other States) attacks on the US.

In the political dimension, while never admitting involvement in anything except the blockade of Taiwan, China will make the point that if a ship can take out the Golden Gate Bridge, one could carry a nuclear weapon into Los Angeles Harbor - or for that matter into New York.

So, as the President, what do you do? The UN will side with China, so there won't even be any resolutions authorizing force, let alone a real UN force. (The Security Council cannot override a Chinese veto - that's what the veto is all about.) No American lives will have been lost to unambiguous Chinese action, yet thousands of lives will have been lost to 'terrorists', with the threat of nuclear attack if we intervene. Just what is Taiwan worth to the US?

In the meantime, isolated and blockaded, Taiwan can surrender or die.

Or . . . they can use their own nukes on China. That, and that alone, is the real deterrent to China right now.

[nasamn777]

Recently, I went to China and it was very clear that China is preparing to attack Taiwan. I talked to a number of the business class (my wife translated) and they said that 80% to 90% of the people were in favor of taking Taiwan by force. It is viewed by the people that any leader that would allow part of China's land to be taken over or controlled by another nation to not be worthy of rule. This is why China would attack if Taiwan declares independence.

All the focus of China's international dealings was clearly related to the Tiawan issue: giving France a 2 billion deal related to the aerospace industry; colaborating with Brazil on space technology; allowing American companies into China but requiring technology exchanges; etc. etc.

I talked with a lot of Chinese on the Taiwan issue. Specifically with one group of young professionals, I asked if they would be willing to risk the financial loss if they did attack Taiwan. "What about the Olympics" I asked. They assured me that they would be willing to take the hardship - financial or otherwise- to see Taiwan re-united with the mainland.

The most surprising exchange was with one professional. I asked about the potential conflict between the US and China, "Some Americans believe that China has a trick up their sleave against the United States."

I was expecting to hear about some military technology. Maybe something to destroy our satellites, electromagnetic weapons, or missiles designed to destroy our aircraft carriers. But the guy responded back, "Al Qaida."

The greatest fear of China is their own people. The communist system is filled with corruption. All the people I talked with complained about the corruption. You have to bribe the officials -- whether you are a small businessman or a major coorporation. Several businessmen expressed the desire to go to America where you could do business without such corruption. They listened to Voice of America to hear what is really going on. I saw several jamming stations because the government fears revolt from the mass of "have nots." In fact, some (including my wife) claim that the focus on Taiwan is to prevent a revolt of the people -- focus the attention away from the real problems of China.

I think there is a possiblity for US foreign policy to capitalize on the divisions in China. Many of the people (the poor have nots) are ready to revolt. Perhaps if President Bush would give a "Bring Down the Wall" speech, the China problem could be resolved without any war on our part.

[ampat]

If a dem is in power, they will start slowly to demonize Taiwan so that eventually they will convince the sheeple that Taiwan isn't worth it.

[Light Speed]

I do not percieve at present time..there being some *plan which links the two nations[Russia/China] in some stratagem to confront the U.S. Militarily.

Russia is probably nervous about to many linkages with China..as she is well aware of Chinas intrigues and decpetions when tech and fabrication are concerned.
ie..some years ago..China pretended to be inept in fabricating the fuselage of the SU-27.
Later..Sukhoi learned that their techs were being plied with Booze,Girlies and coin.
all manner of *off the table goodies were schemed by China..especially in the computer suite dept of SU-27.

China is still liscensed to build SU-27's....yet Russia is aware that China has the details on the superior Sukhoi engines withheld..allong with modifications to the SU-27's computer suite....which had limitations according to the foreign sales contract.

ie..changing the computers targeting ability..increasing it from 4 tracks to 8.

Wonder if some Sukhoi techs ended up in a Gulag : )

[LonghornFreeper]

>>We should not betray the trust that the Taiwanese have in us.
>>Agree? Disagree?

I agree, but at the same time the Taiwanese are betraying our trust to a certain extent. We have offered them advanced weapons, including our newest PAC-3 anti-ballistic missiles, and they have so far not purchased them. Their parliament is more interested in spending money on "social programs".

There comes a point where the US must say, "If you want us to defend you, then put your money where your mouth is."
If Taiwan won't spend their own money for their own defense, I am not sure why we should spend our lives and money defending them.

[ponder life]

Mr. Nemets throw out numbers that certainly sound impressive (or more accurately, threatening). But, if a reader objectively sat down and compared the number of China's modern military equipment to those of developed nations, they would realize that China's recent military build up is not up to par when compared to a developed nation of equivalent GDP (such as France or the UK).

If the reader were to use population as a comparative gage, China has considerbly less. Consider their population of 1.3 billion people (which is more people than the European Union and North America combined). China has nowhere near the armaments as the combined forces of NATO and the US.

[SQUID]

If this society valued human life to the extent you think it does then there would be no such thing as right to choose nor would there be over 1 MILLION dead in Sudan.

Get real

[beaver fever]

"The most surprising exchange was with one professional. I asked about the potential conflict between the US and China, "Some Americans believe that China has a trick up their sleave against the United States."

The real trick is Chinese ownership of US Treasury paper, not Al Qaeda.

Goto http://www.etaiwannews.com/Business/2004/08/09/1092016098.htm

[neutrino]

Interesting!

[ponder life]

You have a very good point. A well known Christian worker who helped push for more open trade with China as a means to further the cause of human rights in China also pushed Congress to intervene in Sudan. When it came to Sudan, he said it fell on deaf ears. One wonders why such a big concern about human rights in China when people are being mutilated in Sudan and it barely makes the news.

[hedgetrimmer]

I am very real. Some of us still hold old fashioned America ideals, and we want our children to have the same values.

Why sell out the country because the idea that human life has no value to some people exists? Why not promote the American ideals so that some day these same people might come to an understanding of life that they can adopt these values? It can only help the world, IMO, not hurt it.

[however1]

I don't think there is harmony between Russia and the US. If Russian wants the same status as the american, they will conflict with the US even if they are democratic. They are just too big.

[however1]

Even if they buy this time, ultimately, they can not afford the weapons which they need to compete with mainland China. There might be reasons that some Taiwanese are daydreaming that the americans will protect them for free, however, I would rather believe that they can not afford this time. I heard that the Taiwan government has to liquidate some government-owned properties to seal the shortage of the money.

[ZULU]

With OUR money thanks to OUR corporations.

We can lay the blame as far back as Bush who "opened the door" to these monsters, as well as to Bush I who carried on business as susual with them, to Clitnon for providing them with technological expertise (probably in return for campaign dollars or jewels for Hitlery).

[Golden Eagle]

Great read, thanks.

Hu emphasized the need for further integrating information technology (IT) into the PLA and mobilizing China’s entire scientific and technological potential for PLA’s needs.

The center of their IT universe is getting free Linux from here in the U.S., they take a free copy of "Red Hat" and rename it "Red Flag", which they recently used to crack the top 10 in supercompters for the first time. Can you imagine that happening under Reagan?