Posted on 08/10/2004 4:09:42 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.0N 80.9W 48 1 X X 49 SAVANNAH GA X X X 25 25
22.7N 82.0W 2 32 1 X 35 CHARLESTON SC X X X 24 24
25.0N 82.5W X 15 13 1 29 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 21 21
MKJP 179N 768W 82 X X X 82 WILMINGTON NC X X X 18 18
MKJS 185N 779W 72 X X X 72 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 12 12
MWCG 193N 814W 43 X X X 43 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 7 7
MUCM 214N 779W 6 2 1 X 9 NORFOLK VA X X X 6 6
MUCF 221N 805W 14 20 X X 34 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2
MUSN 216N 826W 7 28 X X 35 KEY WEST FL X 22 7 X 29
MUHA 230N 824W X 32 1 X 33 MARCO ISLAND FL X 7 17 4 28
MUAN 219N 850W X 10 4 1 15 FT MYERS FL X 3 19 7 29
MYAK 241N 776W X 2 1 2 5 VENICE FL X 1 19 9 29
MYNN 251N 775W X 1 2 3 6 TAMPA FL X X 14 14 28
MYGF 266N 787W X 1 6 10 17 CEDAR KEY FL X X 7 19 26
MARATHON FL X 19 7 1 27 ST MARKS FL X X 1 20 21
MIAMI FL X 6 13 5 24 APALACHICOLA FL X X 2 16 18
W PALM BEACH FL X 2 13 8 23 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 14 15
FT PIERCE FL X 1 11 13 25 PENSACOLA FL X X X 5 5
COCOA BEACH FL X X 10 16 26 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 5 22 27 GULF 29N 85W X X 3 16 19
JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 26 27 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 6 7
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU
C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI
D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
HURRICANE CHARLEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.5N 81.5W 49 X X X 49 SAVANNAH GA X X X 26 26
23.2N 82.5W 2 34 X X 36 CHARLESTON SC X X X 24 24
26.0N 82.5W X 10 19 1 30 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 21 21
MKJP 179N 768W 59 X X X 59 WILMINGTON NC X X X 18 18
MKJS 185N 779W 65 X X X 65 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 12 12
MWCG 193N 814W 51 X X X 51 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 7 7
MUCM 214N 779W 2 X X X 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 7 7
MUCF 221N 805W 23 9 X X 32 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 3 3
MUSN 216N 826W 26 14 X X 40 KEY WEST FL X 26 4 1 31
MUHA 230N 824W 3 34 X X 37 MARCO ISLAND FL X 10 17 1 28
MUAN 219N 850W 1 17 1 X 19 FT MYERS FL X 5 21 3 29
MYAK 241N 776W X X 1 1 2 VENICE FL X 2 23 5 30
MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 1 2 TAMPA FL X X 21 8 29
MYGF 266N 787W X X 6 7 13 CEDAR KEY FL X X 12 16 28
MARATHON FL X 21 5 X 26 ST MARKS FL X X 3 20 23
MIAMI FL X 6 13 2 21 APALACHICOLA FL X X 4 16 20
W PALM BEACH FL X 2 14 5 21 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 15 17
FT PIERCE FL X 1 13 9 23 PENSACOLA FL X X X 7 7
COCOA BEACH FL X X 13 12 25 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 9 18 27 GULF 29N 85W X X 8 13 21
JACKSONVILLE FL X X 3 24 27 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 8 9
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE BONNIE HAS MADE THE
EXPECTED SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT FOR THE FLIGHT CREW TO ASSESS A SOLID CENTER LOCATION DUE
TO THE MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BURSTS AND SMALL MESOVORTICES THAT HAVE
BEEN SPINNING UP AND SPINNING DOWN. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A
COMPROMISE OF THE LAST 4 RECON POSITIONS...SATELLITE ESTIMATES...
AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE LATEST
MODEL FORECAST TRACKS. THE ADVISORY PRESSURE IS LOWER THAN THE
RECON REPORTS AND IS BASED ON NEARBY BUOY REPORTS AND REDUCING THE
PRESSURE ABOUT 10 MB ASSUMING A GRADIENT A WIND OF 50-55 KT. A
SUBSEQUENT LATE REPORT FROM NOAA BUOY 42001 INDICATED A GUST TO 66
KT...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 55 KT. REDUCTION
OF A 72-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND ALSO YIELDS A 57 KT SURFACE WIND.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. BONNIE HAS CLEARLY MADE THE
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEING DIRECTLY
INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 18Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF BONNIE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS
SHOULD FURTHER ENSURE THAT BONNIE WILL GENERALLY MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO AND SUGGESTS LANDFALL IN
ABOUT 18 HOURS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
AFTER THE EARLIER TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE
CONVECTION HAS LEVELED OFF AND SO HAVE THE WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...
THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF A WARMER GULF EDDY
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...COINCIDENTALLY THE SAME TIME AS THE NIGHT TIME
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18 HOURS AND NORTH OF 29N
LATITUDE...SO BONNIE MAY BECOME A LOW END CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...35-50 KT 200 MB WINDS MAY
BRING ABOUT WEAKENING JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING OF THIS WEAKENING REQUIRES THAT A HURRICANE WARNING
BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AREA.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2100Z 26.7N 89.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 28.2N 87.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 30.8N 84.7W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 13/0600Z 34.1N 81.3W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 13/1800Z 38.3N 77.0W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 14/1800Z 48.0N 67.0W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
$$
They just issued mandatory evacuations for the tourists in the western Florida Keys. Also, they have issued hurricane warnings for those areas in the path of Bonnie.
000WTNT42 KNHC 112042TCDAT2TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE BONNIE HAS MADE THE
EXPECTED SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT FOR THE FLIGHT CREW TO ASSESS A SOLID CENTER LOCATION DUE
TO THE MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BURSTS AND SMALL MESOVORTICES THAT HAVE
BEEN SPINNING UP AND SPINNING DOWN.
THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A
COMPROMISE OF THE LAST 4 RECON POSITIONS...SATELLITE ESTIMATES...
AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE LATEST
MODEL FORECAST TRACKS. THE ADVISORY PRESSURE IS LOWER THAN THE
RECON REPORTS AND IS BASED ON NEARBY BUOY REPORTS AND REDUCING THE
PRESSURE ABOUT 10 MB ASSUMING A GRADIENT A WIND OF 50-55 KT.
SUBSEQUENT LATE REPORT FROM NOAA BUOY 42001 INDICATED A GUST TO 66
KT...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 55 KT. REDUCTION
OF A 72-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND ALSO YIELDS A 57 KT SURFACE WIND.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. BONNIE HAS CLEARLY MADE THE
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEING DIRECTLY
INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 18Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF BONNIE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
THIS
SHOULD FURTHER ENSURE THAT BONNIE WILL GENERALLY MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO AND SUGGESTS LANDFALL IN
ABOUT 18 HOURS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
AFTER THE EARLIER TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE
CONVECTION HAS LEVELED OFF AND SO HAVE THE WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...
THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF A WARMER GULF EDDY
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...COINCIDENTALLY THE SAME TIME AS THE NIGHT TIME
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD.
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18 HOURS AND NORTH OF 29N
LATITUDE...SO BONNIE MAY BECOME A LOW END CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...35-50 KT 200 MB WINDS MAY
BRING ABOUT WEAKENING JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING OF THIS WEAKENING REQUIRES THAT A HURRICANE WARNING
BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AREA.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 26.7N 89.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 28.2N 87.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 30.8N 84.7W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 13/0600Z 34.1N 81.3W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 13/1800Z 38.3N 77.0W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 14/1800Z 48.0N 67.0W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
But can we have at least one more swift boat thread in breaking news compared to this "non event"?
I know what you mean! When Charley was upgraded, I tried to post to breaking news, and it got cut. Charley looks like it's going to go right through the Cayman Islands.
He's being awful stubborn about leaving.
im in melbourne right now..it is mapped out to cut right across us....should be sweet...(stormchaser here), I did live in naples for over 3 yrs though..figures it would hit there right after I just moved from there.
Watch Bonnie become stronger than Charlie...I will laugh...things like that happen all of the time in the tropics.
I'm a severe weather enthusiast myself. Isabel passed through my area last year, and earlier this year, we had some funnel clouds sightings just south of where I live. I saw a small tornado when I was down in Cocoa Beach in 1990.
I was right in the middle of Andrew in 1992...it was something like this Earth had never seen before.
The MSM are already predicting catastrophic results to the stock market because these hurricanes might disrupt oil production from the Gulf. Good grief! Does anyone remember all this angst and hand wringing over hurricanes and their impact on the economy when Slick was in office?
Thanks! All prayers greatly appreciated!
seriously...keep me updated
Needless to say, I'm on vacation.
Gov. Bush Declares State Of Emergency
National Guard Activated As Charley Approaches
POSTED: 9:18 am EDT August 11, 2004
UPDATED: 6:36 pm EDT August 11, 2004
MIAMI -- Florida officials are telling visitors to leave parts of the Florida Keys as Hurricane Charley approaches.
T.S. BONNIE
Public Advisory
Discussion
Projected Path
HURRICANE CHARLEY
Public Advisory
Discussion
Projected Path
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
INTERACTIVE: Hurricanes 101
INTERACTIVE: Atlantic Hurricane Tracker
INTERACTIVE: All About Flooding
National Hurricane Center
QUIZ: Survive This Hurricane Quiz!
Gov. Jeb Bush declared a state of emergency Wednesday for the entire state, and he's activated the National Guard and said evacuations may grow.
Video
Gulf Coast Braces For Storms
Emergency officials in the Keys are urging visitors to leave the parts of the island chain under a hurricane watch. Residents aren't being told to leave. Evacuation of the chain can take hours because there's only one road out.
The manager of a hotel in Key West said she's telling visitors to leave but plans to stay put. She said Charley "isn't a big one."
The tropical storm strengthened into a hurricane Wednesday afternoon. The hurricane has top sustained winds of 75 mph and is expected to get stronger.
Bonnie Takes Aim At Panhandle
There's now a tropical storm warning posted for the Florida Gulf coast from the Alabama state line eastward to the Suwannee River, ahead of Tropical Storm Bonnie.
There's also a hurricane watch in effect for the same area. Forecasters said Bonnie is getting better organized as its forward speed increases just a bit.
Bonnie is now centered about 205 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Movement is to the north-northeast at 12 mph, with an increase in forward speed expected later Wednesday. A turn more to the northeast is also expected.
The storm has winds of 65 mph. Forecasters look for that to increase a bit, and tropical storm-force winds now extend out 70 miles from center.
Experts now think Bonnie could reach hurricane strength before landfall Thursday -- reconnaissance aircraft said a small eye may be forming. But they also look for the system to face some shearing just before landfall. There is also some indication Bonnie could make a sharp turn to the east-northeast just before landfall, thanks to surrounding weather.
Recent heavy rainfall over the Florida Panhandle has saturated the ground. Additional rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches can be expected with isolated higher amounts.
At Fort Walton Beach, high winds and high surf caused officials to urge people to prepare for a hurricane. Boats have toppled over, and a red flag warning was issued.
In Panama City, the city's streets are deserted as businesses and government workers busily prepare for the storms. Marina workers have been hauling private boats out of the water and securing them on land.
"We started yesterday at 5 a.m., and we worked until late yesterday afternoon," said marina owner Johnny Morris. "We'll be here until late this afternoon.
Already, Panama City has received enough rain to cause some streets to flood. Emergency managers said rain, not high winds, is their big worry.
"Our main concern with this system is the amount of rainfall that may come with it. We've had some pretty significant rainfall over the last 24 hours, and we think we're going to continue to see rain throughout today," said emergency services chief Robert Majka.
A private zoo owner is removing smaller animals and putting them in a more secure location.
Throughout the Panhandle, grocery stores are doing brisk business -- even in Tallahassee, which is about 35 miles inland.
Greg Wilson said he has a plan for his family in case the storm knocks out power to his house. He loaded up on bottled water, snacks and batteries Wednesday.
Wilson said his teenage sons will appreciate the snack food if they get stuck playing board games by the light of a flashlight.
Many Residents Take Storms In Stride
On Alligator Point, an area carved by the Gulf of Mexico, county road-workers scrambled to install rock and sand jetties where homes once stood. Some of those houses were washed into the Gulf by past storms.
Oscar Sanders has been building barriers for 25 years. He said workers construct them to try to hold off some of the waves that are caused by storms. He said many of his barriers have been washed away over the years, but the roads have almost always remained safe.
"I've always heard about the Florida hurricane season, but I tell you, I am worried," said Lisa Tucker, who recently moved to Apalachicola from Atlanta.
However, many long-time residents said they aren't too worried about the approaching tropical storm.
"It looks like the wind speeds are fairly low, and I'm not particularly concerned about it," said Guyte McCord.
Schools And Government Offices Close In Advance Of Storms
Public schools will be closed Thursday in Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Liberty, Walton and Washington counties because of Bonnie. Monroe County schools, which are in the the Florida Keys, will be closed Thursday and Friday because of Charley. The Florida School for the Deaf and Blind in St. Augustine also closed.
Liberty County local government offices and the Calhoun County courthouse will also be closed on Thursday.
Peanut Growers Welcome Storms
Not everyone is fearing the wrath of the coming storms. Georgia peanut growers, plagued by weeks of dry weather at a critical time in their crop's development, said they welcome the storms and hope they bring enough rainfall to sustain their underground legumes until next month's harvest.
Don Koehler, the executive director of the Georgia Peanut Commission, said he's not worried about the storms causing problems. He said growers would have been in a "disaster situation" if they had gone another 10 days without rain.
Growers hope, of course, that the region is spared from the devastation caused in July 1994 when Tropical Storm Alberto stalled over Georgia and dumped nearly two feet of water in 24 hours. Flooding along the Flint and Ocmulgee rivers left 31 dead, forced thousands from their homes and caused millions of dollars in property damage.
Look at that. 2PM Saturday and it might be in my backyard. Again. I've just about had it with hurricanes. I lived within 20 miles of the ocean from birth until age 22. Did I ever experience a hurricane? Noooooooooooo! So I move to smack dab in the middle of the state and get hit with Fran, Floyd and Isabel. We didn't get the worst of those storms in my area, but it was bad enough, especially Fran.
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