Posted on 08/09/2004 7:56:32 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Sen. John Kerry orchestrated the smooth and unified convention he needed, but still failed to get the bounce out of Boston he wanted.
With the nation’s attention suddenly diverted by new terror warnings, President Bush will get his own opportunity this month to use his party’s convention to beat back Kerry’s advance.
With the luxury of holding its New York convention after Democrats, the GOP is looking to incorporate a few tactics from Boston while trying to reestablish Kerry’s negatives and present a clear and convincing case for Bush’s reelection.
Democrats, generally pleased with Kerry’s hard-hitting acceptance speech, are crowing about the extraordinary unity that was achieved among the party’s often-fractious coalitions, enhanced by an intense desire to beat Bush.
Kerry “deliberately established his military credentials,” said Rep. Jim Moran (D-Va.), a centrist Democrat. “He went at Bush’s strength. … Kerry established himself as a real warrior.”
Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii) added, “This is the greatest display of strength and unity I’ve seen since Gore and Clinton came roaring out of ’92.”
Even some Republicans gave the Democrats kudos, although the official Bush campaign position is that the Democratic convention failed to inoculate Kerry from GOP charges that he’s a flip-flopper weak on defense.
“They were almost Republican in silencing their extremes — in their discipline,” said Jack Horner, a former aide to the House Republican Conference now at the Consumer Product Safety Commission.
Protests in Boston were minimal and largely ignored by news media. Controversy over same-sex marriage and abortion was buried. Democratic operatives expressed amazement that the campaign was able to avoid squabbles over floor time, speaking order and the party platform. Some acknowledged that Democrats took their cues from prior GOP conventions, which are known for their precision.
“The intense control of the message was impressive,” Moran said. “This was the opposite of 1972, when they had George McGovern speaking at 1 o’clock in the morning because we couldn’t get our act together.”
But even in this near-ideal environment, Kerry’s numbers against Bush haven’t moved much, if at all, based on a sampling of polls since the convention.
“Here they had their guy [for] one hour,” GOP pollster David Winston said. “He can say whatever he wants — deliver the message in the best possible light — and they put him on for an hour, and nothing happened. That’s just got to send shivers down their spine.”
An ABC News/Washington Post poll completed Sunday showed Kerry leading Bush 50-44 among registered voters — a slight improvement from just before the convention.
A CNN/USA Today poll had Kerry leading Bush 50-47. But when the same poll queried those who considered themselves likely to vote, rather than registered voters, Bush lead Kerry 50-47.
A Newsweek poll conducted Thursday and Friday had Kerry leading Bush 49-42 among registered voters, about a four-point bounce from Newsweek’s pre-convention polling. Historically, the nominee has gotten even more movement in the polls from his convention.
Winston said the Democrats made a “significant error” in one of their assumptions. They failed to appreciate that Kerry’s negatives — as driven up by Bush campaign ads — were real. “They thought they were just introducing Kerry to the country because they thought those negatives were not real. As a result, they didn’t address what people really believed.”
Nevertheless, Kerry was able to introduce himself to millions of television viewers who may not have been familiar with his biography or combat service in Vietnam, with warm endorsements by family members and military comrades.
Issue-by-issue polling indicates that Kerry has improved his standing on defense issues and combating terrorism, even beating Bush in the Post poll when asked who would be a better commander in chief. Kerry, who was introduced by former Sen. Max Cleland (D-Ga.), a Vietnam War veteran, laced his speech with tough talk and military references.
But Republicans and some Democrats say Kerry could have done better at defining his campaign priorities, or structuring his ideas around a more memorable theme.
The Bush campaign, which came into office in 2000 with a simple four-point plan, vowed to do a better job of presenting the arguments for Bush.
“The main difference between the Democratic convention and the Republican convention will be that our convention will highlight the president’s own record of results — something that was incredibly left out of the Democrats’ convention,” said Leonardo Alcivar, press secretary for the GOP convention.
There appear to be a few innovations from Boston that Republicans can co-opt. The Kerry campaign is ecstatic about online fundraising numbers during the convention — including $5.7 million raised online on its final day. Republicans are expected to mount a similar appeal for computer cash.
Democrats also crammed their convention full of celebrities and popular musical groups as a way to motivate delegates and reach out to particular demographic groups. Motown music echoed throughout FleetCenter during the convention.
“Americans can expect some additional speakers” in New York, Alcivar said. “They can expect other celebrities and others from outside the political walk of life.”
But Alcivar also claimed the use of celebrities, including convention-floor performances in Boston by John Mellencamp, Willie Nelson and the Black Eyed Peas, amounted to “gimmickry” that was “an indication of Democrats’ inability to put forth a specific vision for what they would do.”
Referring to the balloon drop at the end of the Democratic convention, Alcivar said he was certain that the GOP balloons would fall down as planned — rather than in the slow-motion sequence caused by an apparent malfunction in Boston.
One "event" that I am looking for in Iraq, would be the trial of saddam hussein. When the American public is reminded what a monster husssein was, that should help W. at the polls.
Specifically, he said we need another 40,000 in umiform. And that the part-timers, National Guard and such, need to be returned to the weekend service they signed up for, RIGHT NOW.
I agree with both goals (mebbe we need another 250,000 in uniform if we're going to continue to outsource our energy production). Trouble is, the only way it can be done is with the draft. John Dingell already introduced that bill. Just mention these two promises to Kerry voters and they turn green, you don't even have to ask if the feel a draft.
He also definitively said USians should be allowed to buy their drugs wherever they please, such as Canada. I'll go for that too. Keep in mind we are being grossly overcharged for our meds and that this money is being used to pay for medical care for some 40+ million illegals, and the alcoholically disabled Medicaid patients. This tax is going to pop up some place else, you betcha.
Ah yes, press self censorship, ya gotta luv it.
I personally believe Bush will get a better-than-expected bounce. He will talk unfiltered to the American people, and he will remind them of his values and policies. Without the MSM telling you 24/7 why you should hate the president, he gets a lift.
Same thing happens with every major speech he gives, such as State of the Union addresses.
The pundits like to say the electorate is evenly divided, thats why hanoi john got no bounce. Not true. 41% of Americans call themselves conservative, 19% liberal. With the race basically in a dead heat at 45% or so, all, this means that hanoi john already has 26 of the independent minded points, Bush only has 4. hanoi john has topped out, President George W. Bush has plenty of room for a bounce. I predict at least a 10 point Bounce for Bush.
Forty-one percent of people might CALL themselves conservative, but only a percentage of these people are really conservative as we understand it.
This is the kind of talk that establishes the Swift Vets their right to speak out, too.
We got a healthy dose of Sept. 10th at the dem conventionl. Reality will set in if the GOP gives a Sept. 11th convention. Fighting and defeating terrorists in the last 3 years is much better than Vietnam service over 30 years ago.
I predict that the LSM will cover only the protests and not a mention of the GOP convention.
also as far as a bounce in the polls? if it helps the President I dont believe they will report on it.the press will ignore any bounce for as long as possible intill they are forced to make comment. these people are pigs and sluts pimping for the DNC.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.