Virginia has changed greatly over the years. The suburbs of Washington, D.C., collectively known as Northern Virginia, are rapidly growing with northern migrants and government workers. These communities are more liberal than the rest of the state, and are the fastest-growing part of the state. They voted for Gore in 2000, and will support Kerry this time.
I'm not saying Kerry is favored to win, but he has a shot due to demographics.
Having lived in Fairfax County since 1976, I am aware of the infrastructure and population change of the area, but Northern Virginia went for Bush in 2000 by a little over 2%, while the Commonwealth as a whole favored Bush by about 8% over Gore. Sometimes the liberal bastions of Alexandria and Arlington mask the fact that since 1952, Northern Virginia as a whole always comes (with the exception of the Goldwater blowout of 1964) through for the Republican presidential candidate, a record that no other region of the Commonwealth can claim. Northern Virginia is doing just fine. Remember that to liberals Virginia is a black-hole in which they live to throw away their presidential votes...
Now one of the common themes in many of the above quotes is the fear that Virginia might slowly flip to the Democrats in Presidential elections because of changing demographics due to the overwhelming influx of damnyankees to what is commonly termed "Northern Virginia". I disagree. My contention is that Northern Virginia is one of the most reliably Republican areas in Presidential elections since the 1952 first-term election of Eisenhower. The margin of victory may vary, but it is victory nonetheless...
Now it is somewhat hard to pin down exactly what is meant by the term "Northern Virginia" as may be read in the article Where is Northern Virginia? by a Mr. Risse. I have my definition of "Northern Virginia" for the purposes of this political discourse. My belief is that Northern Virginia consists of the Counties of Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Frederick, Loudoun, Prince William, Shenandoah, Stafford and Warren. Inside this geographic area are the independent Cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas, Manassas Park and Winchester. (Yes there is both a Fairfax County and an independent Fairfax City inside the County for those not familiar with Virginia)
Now let us look at some Virginia voting history in the Presidential elections held since the end of Reconstruction. Virginia voted for the Democrat nominee from post Reconstruction (1876) to 1948 every time with the single exception of her 1928 Republican vote for Herbert Hoover. Virginia has voted since 1952 to the present day for the Republican nominee every time with the single exception of her 1964 Democrat vote for Lyndon Johnson.
I detect a pattern.
Virginia Presidential Voting
1892 - 2000
Year Total Vote D R I Margin %Margin Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2000 2,739,447 2 1 3 220,200 8.04% 44.44% 52.47% 2.17% 0.92% 1996 2,416,642 2 1 3 47,290 1.96% 45.15% 47.10% 6.62% 1.13% 1992 2,558,665 2 1 3 111,867 4.37% 40.59% 44.97% 13.63% 0.82% 1988 2,191,609 2 1 449,363 20.50% 39.23% 59.74% 0.00% 1.03% 1984 2,146,635 2 1 540,828 25.19% 37.09% 62.29% 0.00% 0.62% 1980 1,866,032 2 1 3 237,435 12.72% 40.31% 53.03% 5.11% 1.55% 1976 1,697,094 2 1 22,658 1.34% 47.96% 49.29% 0.00% 2.75% 1972 1,457,019 2 1 549,606 37.72% 30.12% 67.84% 0.00% 2.03% 1968 1,361,491 2 1 3 147,932 10.87% 32.49% 43.36% 23.64% 0.51% 1964 1,042,267 1 2 76,704 7.36% 53.54% 46.18% 0.00% 0.28% 1960 771,449 2 1 42,194 5.47% 46.97% 52.44% 0.00% 0.60% 1956 697,978 2 1 118,699 17.01% 38.36% 55.37% 0.00% 6.27% 1952 619,689 2 1 80,360 12.97% 43.36% 56.32% 0.00% 0.32% 1948 419,256 1 2 3 28,716 6.85% 47.89% 41.04% 10.35% 0.72% 1944 388,485 1 2 97,033 24.98% 62.36% 37.39% 0.00% 0.25% 1940 346,607 1 2 126,598 36.52% 68.08% 31.55% 0.00% 0.37% 1936 334,590 1 2 136,644 40.84% 70.23% 29.39% 0.00% 0.38% 1932 297,942 1 2 114,342 38.38% 68.46% 30.09% 0.00% 1.45% 1928 305,358 2 1 24,463 8.01% 45.90% 53.91% 0.00% 0.20% 1924 223,602 1 2 3 66,404 29.70% 62.48% 32.79% 4.64% 0.09% 1920 231,033 1 2 54,214 23.47% 61.32% 37.85% 0.00% 0.83% 1916 152,025 1 2 53,456 35.16% 66.99% 31.83% 0.00% 1.18% 1912 136,975 1 2 3 67,044 48.95% 65.95% 17.00% 15.90% 1.15% 1908 137,065 1 2 30,374 22.16% 60.52% 38.36% 0.00% 1.13% 1904 130,410 1 2 32,469 24.90% 61.84% 36.95% 0.00% 1.21% 1900 264,208 1 2 30,310 11.47% 55.29% 43.82% 0.00% 0.89% 1896 294,674 1 2 19,329 6.56% 52.50% 45.94% 0.00% 1.56% 1892 292,238 1 2 3 51,038 17.46% 56.17% 38.70% 4.20% 0.93%
Source: Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Virginia Historical
We are most interested in the margin of victory for the 1952-2000 period and what geographical areas contributed to said margin. Outside of the LBJ (D) nationwide landslide in 1964, Northern Virginia has been going reliably Republican since 1952, something which other regions of the Commonwealth can not claim. From the ever useful web based Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections come the following graphics of Virginia presidential election outcomes by County/City from the years 1960 to 2000.
Counties and Cities
1960 - 2000
Blue - Republican
Red - Democrat
Green - Independent
Virginia 2000 by County/City:
Virginia 1996 by County/City:
Virginia 1992 by County/City:
Virginia 1988 by County/City:
Virginia 1984 by County/City:
Virginia 1980 by County/City:
Virginia 1976 by County/City:
Virginia 1972 by County/City:
Virginia 1968 by County/City:
Virginia 1964 by County/City:
Virginia 1960 by County/City:
Source: US Election Atlas - Virginia - Presidential Election Map Comparison
Now people are always worried about the changing demographics in Virginia, especially Northern Virginia, but forget that for every liberal damnyankee who moves to this region of the Commonwealth is balanced by military retirees and defense contractors who decide to live and work in Northern Virginia. It is true that there are pockets which heavily favor Democrats such as the City of Alexandria and the County of Arlington. However, these two Democrat bastions are counter-balanced by the rest of Northern Virginia.
I have selected the detailed information for the Northern Virginia area for the elections years 1960, 1980, 2000. With these elections separated by twenty years, the two 'book-end' elections had no incumbent running for re-election; all three elections had third parties to split off the weaker Republicans and Democrats; consists of two close national elections and one national blow-out. Here is the data on how the Northern Virginia votes total in each election and how the region fares against the results and victory margin of the whole Commonwealth of Virginia.
2000 1980 1960
Counties ------------------------- -------------------------- ---------------------------
Arlington Gore 60.10% 50,260 Carter 39.60% 26,502 Kennedy 48.10% 22,095
Bush 34.20% 28,555 Reagan 46.10% 30,854 Nixon 51.40% 23,632
Nader 4.70% 3,952 Anderson 12.00% 8,042 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 0.90% 792 Other 2.20% 1,463 Other 0.50% 250
Clarke Gore 41.00% 2,166 Carter 35.40% 1,156 Kennedy 53.20% 923
Bush 54.60% 2,883 Reagan 57.40% 1,876 Nixon 46.30% 804
Nader 3.70% 195 Anderson 5.40% 177 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 0.80% 40 Other 1.70% 57 Other 0.50% 9
Fairfax Gore 47.50% 196,501 Carter 30.80% 73,734 Kennedy 48.10% 26,064
Bush 48.90% 202,181 Reagan 57.40% 137,620 Nixon 51.70% 28,006
Nader 2.90% 12,201 Anderson 10.30% 24,605 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 0.70% 2,892 Other 1.60% 3,746 Other 0.30% 149
Fauquier Gore 35.30% 8,296 Carter 35.30% 4,119 Kennedy 47.80% 1,958
Bush 61.60% 14,456 Reagan 58.10% 6,782 Nixon 51.90% 2,123
Nader 2.40% 570 Anderson 4.70% 548 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 0.70% 159 Other 1.90% 221 Other 0.30% 13
Frederick Gore 32.00% 7,158 Carter 27.30% 2,948 Kennedy 45.80% 1,757
Bush 65.10% 14,574 Reagan 67.60% 7,293 Nixon 53.70% 2,061
Nader 2.20% 483 Anderson 4.20% 455 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 0.80% 177 Other 0.80% 91 Other 0.40% 17
Loudoun Gore 40.90% 30,938 Carter 32.70% 6,694 Kennedy 48.40% 2,399
Bush 56.10% 42,453 Reagan 58.90% 12,076 Nixon 51.00% 2,526
Nader 2.20% 1,665 Anderson 6.40% 1,312 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 0.80% 597 Other 2.00% 410 Other 0.60% 29
Prince William Gore 44.50% 44,745 Carter 32.70% 12,787 Kennedy 53.00% 2,987
Bush 52.50% 52,788 Reagan 59.00% 23,061 Nixon 46.50% 2,624
Nader 1.90% 1,927 Anderson 6.80% 2,676 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 1.00% 1,051 Other 1.50% 595 Other 0.50% 28
Shenandoah Gore 30.60% 4,420 Carter 28.00% 3,137 Kennedy 33.10% 2,053
Bush 66.70% 9,636 Reagan 67.10% 7,517 Nixon 66.80% 4,144
Nader 2.00% 294 Anderson 3.40% 385 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 0.70% 102 Other 1.50% 164 Other 0.00% 2
Stafford Gore 36.80% 12,596 Carter 34.90% 4,211 Kennedy 50.40% 1,494
Bush 60.50% 20,731 Reagan 58.80% 7,106 Nixon 48.80% 1,447
Nader 1.90% 657 Anderson 5.20% 623 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 0.80% 262 Other 1.10% 135 Other 0.80% 24
Warren Gore 38.60% 4,313 Carter 37.50% 2,597 Kennedy 49.70% 1,850
Bush 56.70% 6,335 Reagan 55.80% 3,861 Nixon 49.50% 1,842
Nader 2.30% 260 Anderson 4.30% 297 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 2.30% 258 Other 2.40% 165 Other 0.80% 28
Cities
Alexandria Gore 60.90% 33,633 Carter 42.40% 17,134 Kennedy 52.10% 9,662
Bush 34.50% 19,043 Reagan 44.20% 17,865 Nixon 47.60% 8,826
Nader 3.80% 2,094 Anderson 11.30% 4,546 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 0.80% 429 Other 2.10% 843 Other 0.30% 63
Fairfax Gore 45.60% 4,361 Carter 32.70% 2,614 Part of Fairfax County until 1961
Bush 49.80% 4,762 Reagan 55.90% 4,475
Nader 3.70% 352 Anderson 10.00% 800
Other 0.80% 81 Other 1.40% 115
Falls Church Gore 55.60% 3,109 Carter 35.80% 1,703 Kennedy 51.50% 1,629
Bush 38.10% 2,131 Reagan 52.20% 2,485 Nixon 48.20% 1,525
Nader 5.10% 285 Anderson 10.40% 497 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 1.20% 68 Other 1.50% 73 Other 0.30% 11
Manassas Gore 42.40% 5,262 Carter 31.60% 1,565 Part of Prince William
Bush 54.40% 6,752 Reagan 60.80% 3,009 County until 1975
Nader 1.90% 230 Anderson 6.40% 318
Other 1.30% 166 Other 1.20% 60
Manassas Park Gore 40.60% 1,048 Carter 35.60% 447 Part of Prince William
Bush 56.60% 1,460 Reagan 58.10% 729 County until 1975
Nader 2.00% 51 Anderson 4.10% 52
Other 0.80% 21 Other 2.10% 26
Winchester Gore 42.10% 3,318 Carter 30.30% 2,006 Kennedy 33.90% 1,203
Bush 54.70% 4,314 Reagan 64.00% 4,240 Nixon 65.60% 2,326
Nader 2.70% 209 Anderson 4.80% 320 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 0.60% 45 Other 0.90% 57 Other 0.50% 16
------------------------- -------------------------- ---------------------------
Northern Virginia Gore 46.95% 412,124 Carter 33.47% 163,354 Kennedy 47.97% 76,074
Bush 49.34% 433,054 Reagan 55.49% 270,849 Nixon 51.63% 81,886
Nader 2.90% 25,425 Anderson 9.35% 45,653 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 0.81% 7,140 Other 1.68% 8,221 Other 0.40% 639
========================= ========================== ===========================
Total 100.00% 877,743 Total 100.00% 488,077 Total 100.00% 158,599
Margin 2.38% Bush Margin 22.02% Reagan Margin 3.66% Nixon
Virginia (Total) Gore 44.44% 1,217,290 Carter 40.31% 752,174 Kennedy 46.97% 362,327
Bush 52.47% 1,437,490 Reagan 53.03% 989,609 Nixon 52.44% 404,521
Nader 2.17% 59,398 Anderson 5.11% 95,418 Unpledged 0.00% 0
Other 0.92% 25,269 Other 1.55% 28,831 Other 0.60% 4,601
========================= ========================== ===========================
Total 100.00% 2,739,447 Total 100.00% 1,866,032 Total 100.00% 771,449
Margin 8.04% Bush Margin 12.72% Reagan Margin 5.47% Nixon
Source: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Virginia
So what results do we have to compare wtih two non-incumbent elections sandwiching a Southern Democrat President running for re-election in Virginia? It will be interesting to see how a Southern Republican President running for re-election fares in Virginia in 2004.
In 1960 Nixon defeated Kennedy in Virginia by 5.47%, in Northern Virginia by 3.66%. In 1980 Reagan defeated Carter in Virginia by 12.72%, in Northern Virginia by 22.02%. In 2000 Bush defeated Gore in Virginia by 8.04%, in Northern Virginia by 2.38%.
Between this data and the above listed County/City maps of the Commonwealth, I think that there is a bit too much "the sky is falling" worry by those who don't see the demographics as a roughly equal change for both Republicans and Democrats in the Northern Virginia region, which has had a Republican lead since 1952.
I hope that John Kerry throws his advertising money away in Virginia, it will do him no good in the end. Virginia (and Northern Virginia) will go for Bush in 2004, win or lose nationally. The spirit of the Army of Northern Virginia lives on...
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