Warm Bread: Bush's grim poll numbers.

Slate ^ | Tuesday, Aug. 3, 2004, at 3:48 PM PT | William Saletan

[COURAGE]

If you've read or watched news reports about polls taken since the Democratic convention, you've probably heard that John Kerry didn't get much of a "bounce." These reports miss the important data. Let's look at the numbers.

1. What's changed. Three major media polls have been taken since the convention: ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News/New York Times, and CNN/USA Today. Prior to the convention, Kerry's favorable rating was nine points higher than his unfavorable rating in the ABC poll. Since the convention, this margin has grown to 19 points. Bush's positive margin on the same question is just two points.

[COURAGE]

If the election was held today, which would be unconstitutional, it would be Kerry 296, Bush 242. And we coming to bat.

[Kenny500c]

Today's Rasmussen: Bush 46%, Kerry 46%

[flashbunny]

1984 Flashback: Convention bounce puts Mondale even with Reagan.

[SerpentDove]

Patience.

Kerry will be hemorrhaging after the Republican convention. He will be on life support after the debates. And he will be buried in November.

[COEXERJ145]

To quote the Gipper: "There you go again".

Now please go crawl back under your bridge.

[PeterFinn]

The only poll that matters is the one held on the first Tuesday in November.

[lormand]

I mean no disrespect to the poster, but it seems that 1/3 of articles posted here are about Polls.

When there isn't anything "newsworthy" for the media, then they dredge up news about polls.

As my tagline says...

[KC_Conspirator]

This is wishful thinking on Salentan's part. Last week was the biggests flop since 72'.

[beaversmom]

"Wow," exclaimed Ferraro, after learning about the poll in her Queens, N.Y., district.

Yup, having Mondale and Ferraro as President and Vice President was sure a tough 4 years but we survived. The author of the Slate article is doing a lot of wishful thinking IMO.

[OpusatFR]

This flies in the face of Gallup polls. I have a problem with the Newsweek and CBS polling data.

[RockinRight]

More doom-and-gloom from Mr. Courage.

[KellyAdmirer]

Kerry is that close to making a Bush victory mathematically impossible.

LOL, that's the funniest thing I've seen today. Yep, it's mathematically impossible, boys, time to call 'er a day, lol.

[veronica]

"Four years ago, based on numbers less grim than these, I said Bush was toast. Gore had passed Bush, and I thought the numbers couldn't turn around. I was wrong. They could, and they did, and they could again.

[claudiustg]

Whatever.

[My2Cents]

Thanks for the post, but personally, I'm really weary of Rasmussen's polls. What's the point of doing a rolling average, published daily, when the results are never outside the margin of error? Today, it's Bush and Kerry tied at 46%. But it could be that Bush is ahead 50-46; or Kerry could be ahead 48-45 -- all based upon Rasmussen's rolling average and margin of error.

In sum, until one of the candidates breaks out of the margin of error, and/or establishes a trend rather than the see-saw we see in these polls, I think Rasmussen's daily report is worthless.

[Mike Darancette]

Tastes GREAT"

[RichInOC]

Man, that Mike Dukakis was a hell of a president, wasn't he?

[SunStar]

Warm Bread: Bush's grim poll numbers.

So, Bush's numbers rising after the DemRat convention means they are "grim". OK, got it. (I have to sort out the "take it in backwards" world of the American left...)

[cake_crumb]

I am now thoroughly tired of all these people pretending Kerry got some sort of real bounce from that dismal circus they flatter with the term "convention."

He didn't get a bounce, he didn't get much of a bounce, he got a big bounce but only when ABC is loading the poll questions, he didn't get a bounce due to a conspiracy by the Bush administration...yada yada yada.

BTW, today Kerry stole yet another keyphrase from the president "turning the ecorner"

Kerry believes that if he continually plagiarizes the Republicans, Republican candidates won't have any left to use...our issues will morph into their (subtly redefined) issues and bamo, we're back in the USSA (United Soviet Socialist America)

On the other hand, it might come back to bite Kerry as so many other things have.

[Rummyfan]

Agreed! I don't give a rat's rear about polls in the first week of August. There is a loonngg way to go to November and who knows what will happen. OBL's head on a pike would be a big boost to the President for example (of course, since he's buried in Tora Bora I don't think that's gonna happen).