Posted on 08/04/2004 4:11:21 AM PDT by kattracks
Kerry's a captive of the overbearing, elitist wing of his party
In 1972, The New Yorker's movie critic, Pauline Kael, won herself a place in political lore by expressing astonishment at the Republicans' 49-state landslide victory. "How could that be?" she demanded. "I don't know a single person who voted for Nixon."
I don't live in such a rarified world, but most of my friends are voting for John Kerry. And I imagine that a good many will be shocked when President Bush wins in November.
It is possible that no Democrat could beat Bush this year. The President has Ralph Nader on his side, and demography. Since the 2000 election, shifts in population have added seven electoral votes to the Red Bush states and subtracted seven from Goreland.
This alone might be enough to put Bush over the top in a tight race. But despite the polls, I don't think this election will be close, and this time the Democratic establishment won't be able to blame the Supreme Court. If they're fair, they'll blame themselves. Since this is politics, they'll blame the candidate.
John Kerry is not a bad man. He probably wouldn't make a bad President. But he is a bad candidate in a terrible situation. He represents the wing of the Democratic Party that is imbued with a sense of its own moral, intellectual, cultural and social superiority. In short, he is the standard bearer for the unbearable.
These people don't comprise a majority of the electorate or even Democratic voters (how could they and remain an elite?), but they have convinced themselves that they and their candidate - if packaged properly - will prove irresistibly attractive to lesser Americans.
Boston, with its flag-waving and saluting and balloon-blowing was supposed to be a commercial for this new and superior brand of politics. But Americans are expert TV watchers. A lot of them voted with their remotes. Those who did watch weren't impressed. The Democrats' much anticipated post-convention bump turned into a thud. George McGovern got one of those in 1972.
Kerry now has 90 days to convince voters that a Bush victory in November would be, as his wife put it in Milwaukee on Monday, "four more years of hell."
The problem is, most Americans don't regard their lives as "hell" or Bush as Satan. The economy, after all, is not really in a Great Depression. In fact, it's doing pretty well. Iraq isn't Vietnam, and won't be unless there's a draft. The Islamic jihad against America isn't Bush's fault, either. A candidate who insists otherwise is bound to strike voters as detached from reality.
Kerry ought to know this, and he may. But his party is dominated, as it was in 1972, by people who talk only to one another and who are convinced that everybody despises Bush. They will judge Kerry by how hard he goes after the Crawford Beelzebub.
Right now the polls look even. But that's an optical illusion. The President has a Republican convention coming up and the power of incumbency to shape events between now and November. In other words, he's way ahead.
Kerry is a weak campaigner. Barring some kind of national disaster, his best shot is the debates. Democratic true believers think he'll kill Bush, one on one. That's what they thought about Al Gore, too.
Calling a presidential race in August is risky, especially a race that's supposedly close. But no guts, no glory. Bush will beat Kerry in a walk. If I'm right, you read it here first. If not, well, even Pauline Kael got it wrong once in a while.
Originally published on August 4, 2004
Kerry will lose. Modern politics is more about personality than anything else.
I'd put a Bush bumper sticker on too but I'm driving a company car these days.
I take a run through DU on a daily basis for kicks and giggles. Those folks over there are the most paranoid, conspiracy breeding slugs I have ever seen. I have to admit I get really sick after reading some of their posts......
In Atlanta I saw so many leftist bumper stickers - my wife had to stop me from confronting a b*tch who had one that read "Our grief is not a cry for war" (I was working in Manhattan on 9/11, a guy I grew up with was one of the firefighting heroes).
I'm from liberalish suburban NJ and I have never seen as many limousine liberal bumper stickers in one area ever as I saw in Atlanta.
By contrast, every place else I went had tons of Bush/Cheney stickers.
Well, collectively speaking, and the socialists/commies on DU are big on THAT, they are operating on one brain cell, well, maybe two.
On a more positive note, Kerry may help scientists find a cure for insomnia (hey, algore invented the internet, it could happen).
Homo marriage and abortion is not so popular among Reagan Democrats.
Good point: the subsequent rescue was where JFK's merit was earned, with the swimming, cut feet, etc.
My wife is a Massacusetts state worker and she says everybody in her office is too depressed to even talk about Kerry.
This seems like a good thread to post this joke on. If not...
One sunny day in 2005 an old man approached the White House from across Pennsylvania Avenue, where he'd been sitting on a park bench. He spoke to the U.S. Marine standing guard and said, "I would like to go in and meet with President Kerry."
The Marine looked at the man and said, "Sir, Mr. Kerry was not elected President."
The old man said, "Okay" and walked away.
The following day, the same man approached the White House and said to the same Marine, "I would like to go in and meet with President Kerry." The Marine again told the man, "Sir, as I said yesterday, Mr. Kerry was not elected president and does not reside here."
The man thanked him and, again, just walked away.
The third day, the same man approached the White House and spoke to the very same U. S. Marine, saying "I would like to go in and meet with President Kerry."
The Marine, understandably agitated at this point, looked at the man and said, "Sir, this is the third day in a row you have been here asking to speak to Mr. Kerry. I told you already that Mr. Kerry was not elected president and does not reside here. Don't you understand?"
The old man looked at the Marine and said, "Oh, I understand. I just love hearing it."
The Marine snapped to attention, saluted, and said, "See you tomorrow, sir"
I'm sort of in the same position. I keep telling all my lefty friends to wake up and get their heads out of their Noam Chomsky books and the Village Voice. Outside of the world dominated by Air America and Ben Affleck, there's very little support for John Kerry.
He's utterly lackluster at best, and a traitorous vacillator at worst. They'll be shocked - SHOCKED - when Kerry loses by ten points in November and cluelessly blame Republican corruption and vote fraud.
This is the point of the article where I stopped reading, for exactly the reasons you stated.
Depressed that Bush is going to stomp him or depressed that Hanoi John is running?
I tend to believe this is a good indication. During 2002, in Maryland, I saw many more Erhlich stickers and signs than KKT. Then, the last week or so before the election, KKT was still trying to get her base together in heavily Dem counties. I think the bumper sticker and yard sign sightings are key indicators in this election.
I hope and pray this election isn't close for Bush. If the demos drag us though another Florida mess, I will hate them forever.
In fact, down here in FL, I've been telling people vote for Bush because Kerry's promised to drag us through hell if it's close.
I hate to advertise my ignorance, but I don't see how this helps Bush. For example, when I lived in (red state) AZ, we were inundated by (blue state) CA emigrants. Now, while this drove up real estate prices and clogged the roads, I don't have any reason to think that the Californicators suddenly got religion once they crossed the state line and started voting like proper red staters. Rather, I suspect that they kept their heads wedged firmly up their backsides and continued to buy the RAT party line lock stock and barrel, making elections a little bit tighter. So, while these red states experiencing net population transfers from blue states may be increasing their electoral clout, at the same time it is more likely that they could fall into the wrong column on election day.
Am I missing something?
THIS is a great line!
this gentleman is always great, and responds to emails
Here in FL during the 2000 election I saw tons of Bush stickers, not one Gore one. Even by election day they were few and far between. I always felt they simply didn't have them available.
Months ago, the kerry stickers started to come out, and I saw them everywhere - no Bush ones. Just now the Bush ones are coming out. I just felt the Dems didn't want to get caught short again.
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