The President will do NO BETTER THAN THIS. But it will still be enough to win.
Posted on 08/04/2004 4:11:21 AM PDT by kattracks
Kerry's a captive of the overbearing, elitist wing of his party
In 1972, The New Yorker's movie critic, Pauline Kael, won herself a place in political lore by expressing astonishment at the Republicans' 49-state landslide victory. "How could that be?" she demanded. "I don't know a single person who voted for Nixon."
I don't live in such a rarified world, but most of my friends are voting for John Kerry. And I imagine that a good many will be shocked when President Bush wins in November.
It is possible that no Democrat could beat Bush this year. The President has Ralph Nader on his side, and demography. Since the 2000 election, shifts in population have added seven electoral votes to the Red Bush states and subtracted seven from Goreland.
This alone might be enough to put Bush over the top in a tight race. But despite the polls, I don't think this election will be close, and this time the Democratic establishment won't be able to blame the Supreme Court. If they're fair, they'll blame themselves. Since this is politics, they'll blame the candidate.
John Kerry is not a bad man. He probably wouldn't make a bad President. But he is a bad candidate in a terrible situation. He represents the wing of the Democratic Party that is imbued with a sense of its own moral, intellectual, cultural and social superiority. In short, he is the standard bearer for the unbearable.
These people don't comprise a majority of the electorate or even Democratic voters (how could they and remain an elite?), but they have convinced themselves that they and their candidate - if packaged properly - will prove irresistibly attractive to lesser Americans.
Boston, with its flag-waving and saluting and balloon-blowing was supposed to be a commercial for this new and superior brand of politics. But Americans are expert TV watchers. A lot of them voted with their remotes. Those who did watch weren't impressed. The Democrats' much anticipated post-convention bump turned into a thud. George McGovern got one of those in 1972.
Kerry now has 90 days to convince voters that a Bush victory in November would be, as his wife put it in Milwaukee on Monday, "four more years of hell."
The problem is, most Americans don't regard their lives as "hell" or Bush as Satan. The economy, after all, is not really in a Great Depression. In fact, it's doing pretty well. Iraq isn't Vietnam, and won't be unless there's a draft. The Islamic jihad against America isn't Bush's fault, either. A candidate who insists otherwise is bound to strike voters as detached from reality.
Kerry ought to know this, and he may. But his party is dominated, as it was in 1972, by people who talk only to one another and who are convinced that everybody despises Bush. They will judge Kerry by how hard he goes after the Crawford Beelzebub.
Right now the polls look even. But that's an optical illusion. The President has a Republican convention coming up and the power of incumbency to shape events between now and November. In other words, he's way ahead.
Kerry is a weak campaigner. Barring some kind of national disaster, his best shot is the debates. Democratic true believers think he'll kill Bush, one on one. That's what they thought about Al Gore, too.
Calling a presidential race in August is risky, especially a race that's supposedly close. But no guts, no glory. Bush will beat Kerry in a walk. If I'm right, you read it here first. If not, well, even Pauline Kael got it wrong once in a while.
Originally published on August 4, 2004
'Bout time someone said it:
A few November 3 newspaper headlines:
FOUR MORE YEARS!
Bush 307, Kerry 231
In a surprise twist, Bush wins Wisconsin and his Re-Election
Kerry applies for job with H. J. Heinz Corp, turned down for lack of experience
This is one of my favorite lines in Presidential politics. It illustrates the "bubble that Bernard Goldberg talks about in the media and politics. To these elistists, our beliefs and values are like someone who still thinks the earth is flat."
I will say that here in Akron, OH, I do see a lot of Kerry/Edwards stickers on the way to work, probably more of them than Bush stickers...but then again this town is still 90% RAT anyway...
I feel President Bush will be re-elected but what do I know....2 months ago I was ready to jump off a bridge I was so convinced Kerry would win.
LOL, I remind myself not to buy a Safeway turkey.
The election outcome of this year won't be like 1984 or 1972, but it will be very good. Although, the media says Kerry is ahead or the polls are tied, President Bush will win - adding some Gore states - and the Senate and the House will go on being Republican - more GOP seats likely. Michael Moore, Howard Dean, John Kerry or John Edwards are not like most Americans. Election night will be ours.
I like your new tag.
I'm thinking that such a debate will involve JFnK using a lot of verbal tricks against the President's very solid positions, and then looking smug, as if he's accomplishing something. And I think that will make Kerry look like even more of an effete smartass, lacking gravitas.
The President needs to bring out and put on display Kerry's ponderousness, as well as his vacillating indecisiveness. Then, when JFnK starts acting decisive and tries to portray a strong position, frontally attack his position as wrongheaded, impossible, or dangerous. IMHO.
HAHA! My old man was the master of one-liners and usually they were right on the money.
I agree. Team Bush needs to show JFnK's dorkiness with the masses, sports, and life in general. The time to play dirty is now, there is too much at stake. We need ads showing sKerry AWOL from the Senate, out chasing down rich widows, out and about as a rich elitist out of touch with Americans in fly-over country, as well as ads showing Edwards as an ambulance chasing channeler of BULL SQUEEZE! As Leo Durocher stated on more than one occasion, "Nice guys finish LAST!" Team Bush...GET HOT!
I disagree with the statement that hanoi john isn't a bad man...he's EVIL.
Not to worry. Massachusetts liberals have invaded southern NH, and being out of the hellhole of "progressivist" tax-happy Massachusetts, they forget their part in creating it - and thus vote liberal again. So even if NH leans left, it is only because of 'Rat bleedover from Massachusetts, and not indicative of trends elsewhere.
I went down to the GOP party HQ to get mine. Yard signs are not yet available. We know RATS are dirty so be sure to get more than 1 bumper sticker or yard sign when they do become available.
In 2004 Kerry is gonna do for the Democrats, exactly what Dole did for the Republicans in 1996. The real race is gonna be in 2008.
Oh, and striking any comparison between JFnK's military record and the real JFK's, if Kerry would be so bold, should open a window of attack so wide that Team Bush could penetrate all of his veils, with few but potent facts.
you stole my tagline,,I love that phrase. We ought to use it alot.
Agreed. Even JFK's military record was limpid at best. The fact that he was rammed by a DD, while in a VASTY MORE MANEUVERABLE PT Boat, doesn't say much for his captain skills.
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