Strategy Memo: The Democratic Convention and Its Effect on the Presidential Race

George W. Bush ^ | August 3, 2004

[RWR8189]

TO:  Bush-Cheney '04 Campaign Leadership
FM:  Matthew Dowd
       Chief Strategist
RE:  The Democratic convention and its
       effect on the presidential race

---

John Kerry becomes the first presidential candidate since 1972 to receive a negative bounce from his convention.  Kerry’s performance in Gallup's post-convention poll is even worse than George McGovern’s in 1972, making it the worst convention bounce in Gallup’s history of presidential campaign polling. 

"An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers.  In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention." 

-- Matthew Dowd, 7/5/04

"Poll: No Bump For Kerry After Convention"
USA Today, 8/2/04

"No Convention Bounce For Kerry"
CBS News.com, 8/2/04

"What Bounce?"
ABC News.com, 8/2/04

"A Baby Bounce?"
Newsweek, 7/31/04

Kerry's "thud" is confirmed by the Newsweek poll which showed that John Kerry received a two-point bounce from his convention (the smallest in the history of the Newsweek poll) and the CBS News poll which showed a one-point bounce.  While John Kerry initially received a boost in polling conducted Friday night, it quickly dissipated over the weekend, bringing the race back to where it was before the convention: a dead heat.

No incumbent president has ever lost re-election when leading in the Gallup poll after his opponent's convention.  As can be seen in the below chart, every successful challenger since 1964 has led in the Gallup poll after his convention, while every unsuccessful challenger has trailed in the Gallup poll after his convention.  The race now most closely resembles 1996, when President Clinton held a single-digit lead over Bob Dole immediately following the Republican convention. 

GallupPolls: Post-ChallengerConventions



Moving forward, we expect a tight race through the month of August, as well as after the Republican convention.

[Southack]

"The jobs numbers out on Friday are crucial. If the numbers come out stronger than expected, then the economy has a good chance of performing strongly throughout the fall. If, however, the jobs numbers are again dissapointing, then the slowdown can become a successful issue for the Dems. It's almost a make or break moment."

Nonsense. What mediot filled your head with such rubbish? I want her name.

Creating a quarter of a million jobs per month in the "soft landing" phase of a recovery is the *most* that can be expected. Any higher number would cause the fed to step in with yet another rate hike to slow down the overall economy some more.

Moreover, we've already got full employment. 5.6% unemployment is historically low; it's very difficult to create vast numbers of new jobs when almost everyone who wants a job is already employed, after all.

5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires

[WOSG]

Bad analogy: Wilson wasnt running *and* the economy in 1920 was in recession.

1920 was a bit like 1952 or 1968, repudiation of an incumbent no longer running.

1920 was like what 1992 would have been if Bush 41 not only screwed up the economy but had a foreign policy everyone hated.


This race has shades of 1996 and shades of 1984.

[WOSG]

Bad analogy: Wilson wasnt running *and* the economy in 1920 was in recession.

1920 was a bit like 1952 or 1968, repudiation of an incumbent no longer running.

1920 was like what 1992 would have been if Bush 41 not only screwed up the economy but had a foreign policy everyone hated.

This race has shades of 1996 and shades of 1984. BUT EVERY RACE IS UNIQUE - we should win but can take nothing for granted. Kerry has more money and the most biased media in our lifetimes on his side.

we just have the better candidate.

[bondjamesbond]

If we relax now, we are through.

One thing I have admired about the President since the 2000 South Carolina Primary is his seeminly instinctive understanding of the importance of keeping your foot on your opponent's neck when he is down. I have every reason to believe he will do so in this case, as well. If the President is up by ten, he will try to win by twenty. That just seems to be his nature.

[WOSG]

ping for a GREAT GRAPHIC!!!