Posted on 08/03/2004 9:25:45 AM PDT by presidio9
So the polls have arrived, and they report virtually no bounce at all for the Dems from last week’s convention. Indeed, among registered voters, Kerry actually dropped a point. Among all adults, the results after Kerry’s best week of the year stand at 50-46 according to Gallup. Kerry now has nowhere to go but down.
The Dems are blaming low viewership for the weak result. Still, it could have been worse: If more people had tuned in, and actually seen John Kerry speak, the Dems might actually have lost ground.
Pride Goeth ...
Almost every report from Boston agrees that the Dems are hugely confident that they will win in November, and possibly win big. That certitude explains a number of details that otherwise boggle the mind – such as John Kerry’s salute at the beginning of his speech. Memo to Kerry’s speechwriters and handlers: When you have a man as naturally solemn as John Kerry, you work with that. You try to persuade voters that he is not so much solemn as sad, and sad because he has seen too much, suffered too much, on behalf of his comrades and his people. You don’t, don’t send him onto the stage to perform operatic gestures in the style of Douglas MacArthur.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Well, the Rasmussen poll is troubling, showing Kerry up by 3 now, although it has always been a little weird. Still, Ras has Bush at 50% job favorability---he has not been below 50% in months.
SO I wonder wat the viewership numbers will be for the GOP Convention and how high of a bounce the President will recieve?
Prov.16:18
[18] Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.
Right now, Kerry is in self destruct mode. He will lose this fall.
Spin. The negabounce and the weak viewership are symptoms of the same thing: no one is excited about this ticket. The low viewership and the negative bounce are a continuation of a phenomenon seen in the primaries, which attracted few voters. There is no fire, no conviction, no real emotion among Democrats for John Kerry. The fire-breathers who live, eat, sleep, breathe "Bush Lied!", represent a minority even within the party. Bush's supporters, on the other hand, are pumped.
This does not bode well for Kerry, regardless of how close the race appears. It's one thing to corner some poor soul and ask them who they intend to vote for. It's easy to say, "Well, Kerry, I guess." It's another thing to get that bored party member to the polls. And if events are such this fall that things are flowing in GW Bush's direction, many of those weak Kerry supporters of today may decide to jump over to Bush.
Rasmussen's results have been so sporatic (all within the margin of error, mind you) that I don't give him much credence.
"The Dems are blaming low viewership for the weak result. "
No surprise, they said in 94 they lost because they "didn't get their message out"...and said it again with each loss since then.
Which tells us that liberals are incapable of admitting an error, incapable of changing in a meaningful way so as to represent "We the People".
They get their message out.....nobody is buying it.
McArthur: "I shall return!"
Kerry: " 'I shall re...' uh... well, let me consult with our foreign partners before I commit myself to any particular course of action... we need to make sure we have investigated all the nuances of the situation... I believe the UN should me more inv... well, that may be a bit premature... the Island of Tonga has not yet been consulted... so...
'I shall make every effort to thoroughly investigate the wisdom of embarking upon a course of action... which I won't disclose until after the election... which may or may not result in the best selection of all possible actions in a virtual analysis of the pluses and minuses of perhaps deciding upon a course of action that might involve my once ageain appearing at the aforementioned scene...'"
O so let's make sure sKerry and T Rex get lots of air time.....The more people see them the lower their oer centage.
Kerry's Potemkin village mask is failing to cover all his warts.
Could have, would have, should have!
(Left to Right): Hope, Help, Hope, Help, Hope
Score: 2 chose "Less Filling", 3 chose "Tastes Better"
Question: Why is there no bounce?
Answer: It's a still photograph.
The JA number is encouraging. Rasmussen is showing very little change from a month ago, which is also encouragin. If the JA number stays up, the horse race numbers should improve.
Rasmussen gives an optamistic result for Kerry by about 2 points compared to some other polls (like IBD for example) because of assumptions regarding turnout and Nader. (Dem turnout will be very high, Nader will not be a factor at all), so showing Kerry at +3 is a toss-up, which is fine for Bush being right after the Dem convention.
>they said in 94 they lost because they "didn't get their message out"...
And these guys ARE the media!!! I tend to think the reason the Dems are on the wane is because they HAVE gotten their message out.
I saw this last night on "Real Time with Bill Maher" on HBO, but there were majior contradictions between what they said and what they did. Two of the panelists were Michael Moore and a guy from Bush-Cheney 04 (whose name I don't remember).
Michael Moore displayed a great deal of confidence that Kerry would win -- he said it several times. Then, when the BC04 guy made a statement, Moore interrupted to say that the statement from the BC04 guy showed that the Republicans were "scared about November 2nd." He said that Republicans knew they were going to lose.
Then, at the end of the show, Ralph Nader showed up. Moore, Maher, and the third panelist (former pm of Canada) began in earnest to try and convince Nader that his candidacy was a mistake. Moore and Maher even GOT DOWN ON THEIR KNEES AND BEGGED Nader to drop out.
If the dims are so confident about winning, why the begging for Nader to drop out? Who is really afraid of Nov 2?
One Democrat is rejoicing in these polls...Hillary Clinton. She is counting on the Kerry-Edwards ticket to crash and burn in November so she can rise phoenix like from the ashes as party leader and 2008 presidential candidate.
My take on this is that time was before 911, where security issues are serious and real. The dumbocrat convention avoided that entirely
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