BUSH BY A LANDSLIDE

National Review (The Corner) ^ | 8-3-04 | Peter Robinson

[veronica]

BUSH BY A LANDSLIDE

A Yale economist, Ray Fair has constructed a model that predicts the outcome of presidential elections using economic data alone. The model’s predictive power? As good as that of any model and better than that of most.

What does the Fair model predict for 2004? Bush will win in a landslide, capturing more than 57 percent of the vote. To see for yourself, click here...

Presidential Vote Equation

The following paper presents the November 1, 2002, update of the vote equation. No specification changes were made for this update from the previous update (in November 1998), which itself was unchanged from the update before that. The equation was simply reestimated using the latest data. This paper also contains the first prediction for 2004 using the 2002 update.
November 2002 update paper and the November 1, 2002, prediction

Compute your own prediction for 2004 using the 2002 update

Predictions for 2004 using 2002 update:
January 30, 2003, prediction
April 25, 2003, prediction
July 31, 2003, prediction
October 31, 2003, prediction
February 5, 2004, prediction
April 29, 2004, prediction
July 31, 2004, prediction

Earlier update papers:
1982
1988
1990
1996
1998

Original paper:
1978

Non technical discussion:
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things (Chapters 1, 3, and 4)

Old site material for the 2000 election

Note to the Media: July 31, 2004

[bellas_sister]

But does it factor in people being brainwashed by Michael Moore and the liberal media? Wild-card.

And all the MTV get out the vote, all the celebs that are working hard for Kerry. I went to the opening nite of F911 in Liberal Westwood with some of my Bush/Cheney rally girls to hand out info on how Micheal Moore hates America and they had a voter registration and I filled one out with a crazy name and info but checked REP and the woman didn't want to take it. She said I should turn it in myself and that they are only signing up Demorats.

I think all the polls are talking about "likely" voters and the left has done an amazing job of registering thousands of "unlikely" voters.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Lord help us if that's the case. Guilty Republican's of states that voted for Kerry will probably cave onder the pressure that WILL be exerted by the media.

[SuperSonic]

Thanks! It certainly was an interesting read.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"This logic is flawed. Kerry will get CA and no doubt get HI. Maybe MN, maybe OH."

---

And if Kerry wins those states, Bush will get between 45%-51% of the national vote, not 57% of the national vote, which was the stipulated premise.

[LouisWu]

"most of the libs are anti-gun."

They're also against censorship and hate speach... except when used against a Christian or conservative or Republican. I cannot believe their pacifism will be any less fleeting when they get angry enough. It's never about principles, it's only about partisanship and hatred.

[POA2]

GWB is looking in much better shape - The lack of any bounce out of the DEM convention hurts Kerry -

It is now a plan of simply getting our message out - The WH and RNC need to be on top of their game for the next 90 days - Turnout will still be key in many of the battleground States -

I really doubt any candidate could gather 57% of the vote though - That is just too high - I can't even see how a candidate can win by 10% anymore -

[veronica]

Feel better now?

No. LOL!

[Rooivalk]

I started out thinking this election would be a Bush by a landslide win. Then i became much less sure and even worried that Bush could lose this one. Now I'm back to thinking it will be a Bush win by a fair margin of at least 10%.

It WILL be a landslide if we the people who care about America get out there and do the grunt work needed to ensure said landslide. We must not become complacent

Lets all work to re-elect the President

[I_dmc]

You forgot MN (if I recall correctly) where folks could vote online, and some students voted 600 times for Gore.

[MrChips]

oops! mea culpa!

[I_dmc]

What do folks think of this approach?

 Title: America's Choice(s) in 2004.

List of "problems", such as rising cost of health care, economy, etc. Side-by-side list of each candidate's proposed "solutions". (why quotes? Because I question focusing on problems and solutions and the desire to have the President "fix it". Some things just are what they are. However, it appears thats how most voters think)

Brief comparison and analysis of each.  Possible section title: The Truth

Example: Is it better to focus on what is causing health care costs to skyrocket or to focus on having "the government" pay for health care, freeing (supposedly) individuals and businesses from paying for health care. Show who really pays for each choice...and perhaps more importantly, who does not. Possibly two columns: Who Pays? Who Does Not Pay?

Message: Which choice is best for you? Which choice is best for the country?  If the answers differ, can you place yourself above your fellow citizens in good conscience? Are we children or are we adults?