Regards, Ivan
Posted on 08/02/2004 8:26:22 AM PDT by MadIvan
That dull thud you hear may be the John Kerry flop of 2004.
The media wanted a post-convention bounce for the Democrats' presidential nominee. The Washington Post, acting as political consultant, highlighted the rosy findings of its convention focus groups among swing voters. They tried.
But polling suggests that the Boomer centric "Boston Me Party" that nominated John F. Kerry, may have been a flop. The most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Friday and Saturday (the best time to measure a possible post-convention bounce), actually found Bush ahead of Kerry 50 percent to 47 percent among likely voters and behind Kerry by three points among registered voters in a two-way race. In a three-way race this research found Bush ahead 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters and tied at 47 percent among registered voters.
This could be the bounce that wasn't.
A raft of surveys will come out in the next few days. If most of the others find the same weak response to the Democrats' convention of "strength," they will have proven our polling firm has been saying for some time now. Getting a significant bounce in a closely divided, ideologically polarized country is very difficult.
While it is clear from this research that the Kerry campaign shifted some perceptions of its product, Democratic officials have to be troubled that the Boston repackaging generated so few additional buyers.
The survey does suggest that they made the product look and feel more presidential to potential buyers. For example, 57 percent (up from 53 percent) now agree that the new and improved, extra-"strength" Democratic product has the "personality and leadership qualities" a president should have. Who knows? Maybe it was the salute.
But, don't blame the product managers. They ran a well-scripted and brilliantly deceptive convention. They hid Teresa Heinz Kerry and Teddy Kennedy in early convention speaking slots, toned down the hate, and muzzled any overt discussion of the issues that actually animate the convention delegates. They did all they could to make their product look and feel like a "strong" and moderate John McCain. They may yet be successful.
And how about that all-important "strength" metric the Democrats were trying to move? This weekend's poll suggests the new Democratic "extra-strength" product made some headway, moving from a 17-point deficit in a head-to-head match-up with Bush to a nine-point deficit. President Bush, however, is still considered the more strong and decisive candidate by 51 percent of the voters and leads Kerry by 12 points on who voters trust most to fight terrorism.
Did the Kerry campaign get a bounce for its product? At this point, the answer appears to be no.
Regards, Ivan
Ping!
The new Washington Post poll may break the no-bump consenus. This morning's edition of the Note says "hold onto your hats" and suggests Newsweek and Gallup are out of line.
Yea riiiight!
I think this convention was a success. Think about goals. The D's goal was to hold a week long convention without saying anything substantial and without revealing anything about their candidate other than a few months 37 years ago. And they needed to do that without it being an absolute catastrophe. They suceeded in revealing nothing without imploding. That is the best a party can do who is running a candidate whose campaign strategy is to remain an unknown to get the ABB vote.
I still think it was more of a Splat than a Thud. Splats are messier.
Maybe we should help raise money so the democrats could have another convention, just before the election.
TDIDS.
Make that 'hold on to your tinfoil hats'.
There was newsweek (already debunked here on FR as a biased poll that oversampled dems by 8pts to even CREATE a 4pt bounce);
there was Gallup (negative bounce)
there was Rasmussen (bounce within MOE);
there was Zogby (more of a speedbump than a bounce).
All of them show a close race as of today.
So add one more poll and 5 others should be ignored?
I dont think so!
I saw the Bush speech on Friday and the Kerry acceptance on Thursday night. Bush was relaxed confident, hit so many hot-button points in a graceful way... I felt good about his speech, his issues and where he stands vis a vis kerry - he is a superior candidate to everyone except the Bush haters.
The media can try to light a wet rag on fire, but it won't take.
Now, if the polls really move, fine, we have to deal with that, but facts are not showing it in some polls, so I'm not buying media Polloganda and taking it at face value.
ROTFLMAO bump.
ROTFLMAO bump.
**Thud: Where’s Kerry’s post-convention bounce?**
In the gutter, no, in the sewer.
It is amazing, Kerry spent 20 years in one of the most powerful positions in the world and the Dems don't spend 5 minutes talking about what Kerry has accomplished. What Kerry has stood for, what Kerry has championed. The only issue I heard even mentioned was the normalization of relations with Vietnam, which BTW Kerry's brother has about a billion dollars worth of contracts as a result. Come on, where has Kerry been? Kerry has done NOTHING for 20 years and now wants a promotion????
Kerry's sloppy salute proved again that he was what we call in the Navy a "Dilbert."
Lawn Dart Bounce.
He's been watching too many re-runs of George C Scott in Patton --
Dead hamster bounce!
Gore lost, kerry already lost. let's move on.
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