I think the one segemnt of the population that is overlooked are the Ron Silver or Ed Koch democrats, I assume many of them spent the last 3 years in support of Bush's foreign policy but right now are undecided on old party loyalties or foreign policy agreements.
Actually, what they have a problem with is not foreign policy, but domestic policy (abortion, gay marriage, environment, etc.)
Security issues, in the end, will help them pull the lever for Dubya. I think in the post RNC Convention time period, the Swift Boat gang needs to make the Jersey Girls looking like shrinking violets...