[TomGuy]

Russert has a Newsweek poll that showed Kerry 47% Bush 42%.

None of these polls mean anything until maybe after Labor Day, after the Republican Convention.

October, with the debates, the polls will probably be more accurate. Too many voters are still watching summer reality shows and staying out late at the parks and malls, and are paying about zero interest in the election at this point.

[Nataku X]

You should take a look at dvwjr's excellent analysis of the newsweek poll.

MSNBC/Newsweek changed their sampling from last week's poll such that they gave 9% more weighting to Democrats. If you use the same weighting they used in their previous poll, Kerry-Edwards has a NEGATIVE bounce!

The "independents" column just plain say it all... In this week's Newsweek poll, the independents are favoring Kerry by a margin of 45 percent to 39 percent. In the previous poll they were favoring Kerry by a much more substantial 53-34 margin.

So if Newsweek/MSNBC had used consistent sampling, Kerry would have gone down by 2%, which is also in line with Rasmussen and now Gallup. Bwaaahaahaaaaaaa!

[Homer_J_Simpson]

Russert has a Newsweek poll that showed Kerry 47% Bush 42%.

Today's Rasmussen three-day rolling average poll shows Kerry picked up three points overnight and now leads by four. I wouldn't advise glomming on to whatever poll results are most favorable to Bush.

None of these polls mean anything until maybe after Labor Day, after the Republican Convention.

Concur. BTW, I think Bush will win by at least 8 percentage points.

[Eva]

Newsweek polled all adults, Gallup polled registered voters.

[WarrenC]

None of these polls mean anything until maybe after Labor Day, after the Republican Convention.

Ordinarily I'd agree with you, but for the Democrats to get such a poor result from the first polls reflecting their convention is terrible news for them. Even Mondale got a big bounce from his convention.

[jtill]

"Too many voters are still watching summer reality shows and staying out late at the parks and malls, and are paying about zero interest in the election at this point."

How can you say that? I was just told by a legislator here in CA that the reason the voters weren't paying attention wasn't because they were having fun or were too stupid - it was because they are so very busy working two and three jobs to keep their heads above water.

Unfortunately, I didn't think to ask him where they were getting these jobs since he (he's a dim) and his cohorts were telling us there are no jobs!

[Coop]

Russert has a Newsweek poll that showed Kerry 47% Bush 42%.

I watched Chris Wallace on FNC today, and all they talked about was the Newsweek poll. Which by the way showed a ten-point Kerry lead since the convention, acc to Fox. Never said a word about the CNN poll.

[snarkytart]

I thought Newsweek was registered voters not likely?