Kerry's Convention Bounce Sets Him Up To Be One Of The Biggest Losers of All-Time

[SamAdams76]

Matt Drudge is reporting tonight that John Kerry appears to have only a 4-point convention bounce (quoting Newsweak).

If true, a mere 4-point convention bounce is a disaster for Kerry. Just disastrous.

Let me tell you why and then I'll back it up with some hard data.

When you are running against an incumbent, you need a huge bounce to keep the race competitive. Especially since the incumbent will have the last word (by having the convention last). Bill Clinton got a 30 point bounce at his convention in 1992 and he needed almost all of it to beat the incumbent Bush Sr.

By comparison, Al Gore had a 19 point convention bounce in 2000 and still lost - it wasn't enough!

Here are the convention bounces of other losers...

Bob Dole (1996) - 15 points
George Bush Sr (1992) - 16 points
Mike Dukakis (1988) - 11 points
Walter Mondale (1984) - 16 points
Jimmy Carter (1980) - 17 points
Gerald Ford (1976) - 7 points
Hubert Humphrey (1968) - 4 points

Taking the cake for the most pathetic convention bounce in modern political history is George McGovern from 1972. Minus 3 points! And we all know how THAT race turned out.

So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.

Personally, I think Newsweak is being overly optimistic. I don't sense any Kerry bounce out there. And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple.

[My2Cents]

A more HYSTERICAL America.

[smoothsailing]

Yeah and she's beautiful too!

And of course I'll give her your thanks.

[sweetliberty]

I just love good news.

[concerned about politics]

OMG! That is sooo funny. That's a great FReep sign.

[Iam1ru1-2]

The softspoken, humble, quiet, and demure demonrats at the podium: (Click link below to see them in action)

http://kerry-04.com/wildeyed.php

[Shooter 2.5]

I think the country has changed since then. There are less undecided voters than ever before. I'm seeing kerry supporters running voter registration drives. There are more kerry stickers than the gore stickers from the last election. I believe it's going to be a very tough race and Bush may lose.

[smoothsailing]

There is "no overall coherence" to his message.

Come on Threep, that's the whole point.

[Krodg]

I'm not the poster that you addressed, but I haven't seen any polls which show Nader hurting President Bush. Can you please provide links and details?

I'm ready to retire for the evening...but I will respond tomorrow.

[Zechariah11]

I think that the undecided voter, the voter who places politics on a very casual plain, will judge Kerry/Edwards on less what they said than how they came across. With that in mind they seem to have tried a little too hard to be effervescent and ended up seeming very shallow.

Kerry's wife was a huge, pompous turn-off. She compares very unfavorably with Laura Bush.

[gilliam]

They are always asking people who they will vote for, in these polls, but what about a strength of conviction type of poll? Do they have catagories like "Absolutely positive vote for Bush" or "probably Bush but not really sure?"

Zogby does. I think others do as well. And he asks the question in a couple of different ways as well. On the interactive poll he also polls some people twice with a very similar poll a few days later to double check their responses.

[prairiebreeze]

GOP viewers of Fox said "Fine, Brit, Bill, Sean, and Greta, you do your duty, but I'm going to skip you this week

This one certainly said exactly that.

Prairie

[Lady Jag]

[Dolphy]

For Bush to get any bounce out of the RNC he'll have to get a bigger audience than the DNC had.

I'm not certain. The Republicans will have the advantage of nationally known names giving speeches with sound bites that will fill the airwaves for a few days. McCain, Rudy and Arnold are well known and not "right wing extremists" that Kerry and the media would like to portray Bush to be.

I think it's the steady stream of negative news this year that are hurting Bush's numbers, not Kerry. The Republicans will have a chance to reframe the debate and so far I like the way they are going about that challenge. I think there is a good chance they get a decent bounce.

[Lady In Blue]

I just wonder why Canadians have such an interest in our elections. Most,I won't say all,are anti-American and anti-George W.Bush. I'm sorry but I don't like your country.

[sweetliberty]

Hehehehehehe....

[Mo1]

We can only hope!

LOL ... I'm thinking we'll be seeing Kerry go Wind sailing on vacation again?

[sweetliberty]

ROTFL!

[ssaftler]

Cute little dumbo you have there. But that is a REAL rat, not a DEMO-rat, not even an (ugh!) hamster.

[McGavin999]

It's going to be a close race and every vote counts.

Well I'm planning on dragging every living humanbeing who looks like they'll vote for Bush to the polls regardless of what the polls say. I want a landslide because I don't intend to spend the next 4 years like the last 4 years listening to the dems whine about stealing an election. I want there to be NO question, I want the french to shut up, I want the dems to shut up, and I want the terrorist supporters to shut up. If this country is fully behind our president the entire world will shut up!

[ableChair]

Yep, and the funny part of it is that the 4 point bounce is probably a gross exaggeration. Three other sources are suggesting a LOSS for Kerry. We'll know on Monday.