Posted on 07/31/2004 8:48:48 PM PDT by SamAdams76
Matt Drudge is reporting tonight that John Kerry appears to have only a 4-point convention bounce (quoting Newsweak).
If true, a mere 4-point convention bounce is a disaster for Kerry. Just disastrous.
Let me tell you why and then I'll back it up with some hard data.
When you are running against an incumbent, you need a huge bounce to keep the race competitive. Especially since the incumbent will have the last word (by having the convention last). Bill Clinton got a 30 point bounce at his convention in 1992 and he needed almost all of it to beat the incumbent Bush Sr.
By comparison, Al Gore had a 19 point convention bounce in 2000 and still lost - it wasn't enough!
Here are the convention bounces of other losers...
Bob Dole (1996) - 15 points
George Bush Sr (1992) - 16 points
Mike Dukakis (1988) - 11 points
Walter Mondale (1984) - 16 points
Jimmy Carter (1980) - 17 points
Gerald Ford (1976) - 7 points
Hubert Humphrey (1968) - 4 points
Taking the cake for the most pathetic convention bounce in modern political history is George McGovern from 1972. Minus 3 points! And we all know how THAT race turned out.
So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.
Personally, I think Newsweak is being overly optimistic. I don't sense any Kerry bounce out there. And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple.
"No one got a sense this was a party looking ahead to the future or that it was even in the 21st Century at all...
The Democrats are stuck in the 60s reliving Vietnam while the rest us are concerned with 9/11 and Islamofascist terrorism in the new millenium. No wonder Kerry didn't get a bounce."
Bears repeating. This is one of the things that is so bad about Kerry. He constantly evokes the Sixties, bringing to mind the unhappy time when LBJ was President. It's not a fortuitous association for this candidate.
Kerry acts as if he's starring in "That Sixties Show".
I agree, the country would get mad and get even. But if the worst happened in NY during the convention, it would look as if GW were incompetent...that's how RATs would spin it. 'Give Kerry a chance, he'll keep us safe, etc...'
I believe that country is completely polarized between the producers, most of whom try to practice traditional
values, and those involved in "confiscatory" activities which include leftist politicians, trial lawyers and individuals who want to "confiscate" traditional morality as taught by all the major religions. You know who they are. The producers are mostly conservative and the confiscators are mostly Democrats. However, some Democrats have not voted with that party for years, because the party of Harry Truman does not exist anymore.
Great analysis, I agree with every word, and I would add that it takes Newsweak, the biggest rat-friendly poller out there, to get that 4 pt bounce for Kerry. No Zogby bounce, no discernable Rasmussen bounce, and no one else has come out with a poll yet.
Kerry will not win. Unfortunately, it will not be a rejection of leftist policies
Can you imagine, the morons vote for personality vs. policy, these people shouldn't even be allowed to vote.
Kerry will not win. Unfortunately, it will not be a rejection of leftist policies
Can you imagine, the morons vote for personality vs. policy, these people shouldn't even be allowed to vote.
All this looking back is very pre 9/11. Nothing can predict what the next few months will bring. We need to work hard, be vigilant, and pray!
"...deer hunting on your belly...."
The most telling Kerry quote of all to my mind. The only deer hunters laying on the ground are those who fell over from drinking too much, i.e., he doesn't deer hunt, he just says he does. Another Clinton, in that he lies even when he doesn't have to, but he is not as good at it.
Carolyn
Thank you dck2.
MG999's comment is excellent.
A keeper for sure..
A Bush win will not be a gift from the Clintons. I understand they need 2008 open for Hillary, but Bush will win whether the Clintons want him to or not.
I think that's overblown. Bush has certainly flubbed some words and phrases, but have you seen him give a speech lately? I've seen him give some extremely strong, passionate, inspiring speeches.
Kerry, on the other hand, is not a good speaker. Even at his best, he's got that monotone thing going on, and he's pompous. I don't see a Kerry speech inspiring too many people.
Bush has the ability to reach people when he speaks; Kerry just doesn't.
Gallup said this in 2000 -
July 26, 2000
Average Convention "Bounce" Since 1964 Is Six Points
Clinton set the record in 1992 with 16 points
Maybe this has something to do with it - Ken Mellman of The Hill said this on 7/14/04 - "Sometimes challengers get a big convention bounce because of events that have nothing to do with their partys national convention. Going into the 1992 Democratic convention, Bill Clinton was running third and Ross Perot was in second place, garnering 30 percent of the vote.
During the convention, Perot dropped out, temporarily increasing Clintons margin by 28 points.
Clintons gain had less to do with the convention and lots to do with Perot, but Dowd gleefully uses that swing to boost his convention bounce calculation."
Wouldn't it be great if Kerry cracked toward the end and had a "Checkers" moment over the way his daughter's hamster story has been lampooned?
So the only leftists to get elected are people like Clinton (who talks about tax cuts for the "middle class," then doesn't produce) or Kerry (who does everything he can to appear to be a "war hero" and "common man").
"...I'm seeing Kerry supporters running voter registration drives."
Hehehehe, I just thought of something. From now on whenever I run into a Kerry supporter, whether it be at the office, the store or my own front door, I'm going to tell him/her/they that I'm voting for Nader, and let them waste their time trying to dissuade me while they become more and more apoplectic. As they walk off in disgust, I'll shout, "Nader in 04, guys!"
A Bush win will not be a gift from the Clintons.
Has nothing to do with it being a gift, has to do with political stategy and just how stupid at least 1/2 of this country has become. Baffles and blows me away that Kerry even has the numbers he has. Blew me away even more that Clinton pulled off a SECOND term. That is when I knew this country is in trouble and people don't vote according to what is best for this country and common sense, they are motiviated by pure emotions and the emotions of an uneducated 5 yr. old at that. Throw into the mix, the huge rise in anti-christian principles and we are indeed in a battle beween the godly and the godless. If Clintons are sitting back knowing Kerry is merely a token candidate at best, its because they too know what idiots are flocking to the dem. party. AND just how bad these idiots need the proper leader to take care of them and tell them how to live their lives and spend their money. Freedom loving, independent thinking people are becoming a minority.
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