Kerry's Convention Bounce Sets Him Up To Be One Of The Biggest Losers of All-Time

[SamAdams76]

Matt Drudge is reporting tonight that John Kerry appears to have only a 4-point convention bounce (quoting Newsweak).

If true, a mere 4-point convention bounce is a disaster for Kerry. Just disastrous.

Let me tell you why and then I'll back it up with some hard data.

When you are running against an incumbent, you need a huge bounce to keep the race competitive. Especially since the incumbent will have the last word (by having the convention last). Bill Clinton got a 30 point bounce at his convention in 1992 and he needed almost all of it to beat the incumbent Bush Sr.

By comparison, Al Gore had a 19 point convention bounce in 2000 and still lost - it wasn't enough!

Here are the convention bounces of other losers...

Bob Dole (1996) - 15 points
George Bush Sr (1992) - 16 points
Mike Dukakis (1988) - 11 points
Walter Mondale (1984) - 16 points
Jimmy Carter (1980) - 17 points
Gerald Ford (1976) - 7 points
Hubert Humphrey (1968) - 4 points

Taking the cake for the most pathetic convention bounce in modern political history is George McGovern from 1972. Minus 3 points! And we all know how THAT race turned out.

So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.

Personally, I think Newsweak is being overly optimistic. I don't sense any Kerry bounce out there. And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple.

[sonserae]

Even the leftist people I work with don't like Kerry but are going to vote for him anyway because they don't want Bush. Kerry is NOT a likeable guy. He is creepy in some weird way. I mean...is THIS the best they can do???

[SEA]

You said: Sadly, as much as I hope for a Kerry defeat, I've no joy at the prospect of four more years of socialist agenda by the Bush Administration.


I couldn't have put it any better.

[Intolerant in NJ]

And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple...and that doesn't even include the debates, in which Bush should demolish Kerry - just wait 'til the blue bunny has to try to explain some of his anti-military, anti-security votes on stage with no place to hide.......

[ableChair]

Good link, thanks.

[Musket]

ABC Radio News just reported a 2 to 4 point bounce. Considering a 2 to 4 point margin of error, that comes out to exactly - um - let me see - yup, that's what I thought, NUTHIN'.

And that's exactly what they deserve.

[Rate_Determining_Step]

> I'm gonna enjoy the ride. Not that there isn't allot of hard work left but...it's already over.

Two things to do for sure. WORK for the cause - wherever it will do the most good. I don't have a lot of time, but I will be working for the cause this time. Plus, working on a winning effort is sooo fun. This might be a congressional race somewhere if you're in a hard-core blue state.

I'd like to see this like a Reagan II thumping. Not just a win, but a vaporization.

2, save all the butt-kissing media quotes and resuscitation efforts. They need to have their noses rubbed into it when they start again for Hillary in 08.

[Atchafalaya]

Agree, this is all smoke and mirrors. Hillary is stealth and has done a good to great job portraying herself as a mainstream (read) moderate hawkish senator from NY. She is in the catbird seat with the wind in her nose. Yon stands Hillary with a lean and hungry look. The Dem left is going batshit and when they loose they are going to go critical; she will be the voice of moderation and be the party savior. Pubs better start thinking now to counter because she will show up to play and I say her running mate will be Obama or Ford. Politically things could not be better for her. Merde!

[puroresu]

Good point about not being complacent, and it will still be a tough race.

But in the case of Humphrey, it was Wallace who made that a close race. Wallace cost Nixon the electoral votes of at least six states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas). Without Wallace, Nixon would have beaten Humphrey by a wide popular vote margin.

[ntnychik]

I wondered why Buchanan and Scarborough changed their tune. They should resign, together, with a press conference to state the reason. Both have the ability to obtain other employment. No respect for either one any more.

[radiohead]

Even the leftist people I work with don't like Kerry but are going to vote for him anyway because they don't want Bush.

Most of the leftists I see on campus scream and moan, but when you press them, you find out they don't actually vote. As much as Bush=Hitler to some of them, I wonder if they will vote since Kerry is such an unlikable guy?

I mean, why bother for someone who doesn't excite you? I could see it for Clinton, and these people didn't even go out and vote for Clinton, so I'm not so sure they will haul themselves out of their leftist self-satisfaction long enough to go vote for Hamsterboy.

[lewislynn]

My wife is a registered Democrat and she'll tell anybody that she's voting for President Bush.

What does that say about Bush?

[wardaddy]

This is great but.

The left is motivated not by Kerry but by their hatred for GW. I have never thought we would not prevail but we must continue to give our time and money and pester our friends etc to keep up the fight.

It's ours to lose. My old Omega broke down this week. I almost bought this(below)...a rare treat for a head of household with 6 direct and 3 indirect dependents but the watch can wait...vanquishing the domestic destroyers of our culture is a bit more pressing. I gave the money to GW's gals here in Nashville and specified it for right now on the Presidential only....everyone has to do this to the best of their abilities. The money Kerry has raised in the past month is astounding and I have never seen the media carry anyone's water like they are now....never.

for unique timepiece lovers...

[smoothsailing]

"I couldn't have put it any better"

Why not?

[goldstategop]

And unlike 1968, Nader threatens to cost Kerry many weak Gore states. There's no such unity among the Left. The Democrats have the Hate Bush vote locked up but they have yet to attract people who don't hate Bush but think he's not up to the job and there needs to be change of the guard at the White House. I didn't see Kerry getting them yet. And his pseudo-Bush tone at the Convention ironically, may end up alienating quite a few of the Hate Bush crowd who are repulsed not only by who Bush is but by the Bush policies, period. The other guy still has a lot of work to do to win this race.

[DaiHuy]

You forgot Let America be America again.

[Post Toasties]

Your premise regarding Canadian tampering in the US electoral process does not justify your conclusion in this post.

[Dave S]

It was like 43%-43% with George Wallace taking the rest.

And remember the 1968 convention was probably one of the worst conventions the dems ever threw. There was rioting inside and outside the Chicago convention. Back in those days I was for McCarthy and then Kennedy before he was assainated but I ended up voting for Nixon. The Dem party back then was far from united. It was losing both the anti-war crowd and the redneck wallace folks. Its a miracle that Humphrey did so well. Im surprised Humphrey got any positive bounce from Chicago.

[smoothsailing]

I think I'll just let you figure that out.

FRegards..

[nopardons]

Interesting watch. :-)

The GOP/RNC already has my time,effort,and cash,with more one the way.

[willyboyishere]

I think Bush got a bigger bounce than Kerry for falling off his bike again.