Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Kerry's Convention Bounce Sets Him Up To Be One Of The Biggest Losers of All-Time

Posted on 07/31/2004 8:48:48 PM PDT by SamAdams76

Matt Drudge is reporting tonight that John Kerry appears to have only a 4-point convention bounce (quoting Newsweak).

If true, a mere 4-point convention bounce is a disaster for Kerry. Just disastrous.

Let me tell you why and then I'll back it up with some hard data.

When you are running against an incumbent, you need a huge bounce to keep the race competitive. Especially since the incumbent will have the last word (by having the convention last). Bill Clinton got a 30 point bounce at his convention in 1992 and he needed almost all of it to beat the incumbent Bush Sr.

By comparison, Al Gore had a 19 point convention bounce in 2000 and still lost - it wasn't enough!

Here are the convention bounces of other losers...

Bob Dole (1996) - 15 points
George Bush Sr (1992) - 16 points
Mike Dukakis (1988) - 11 points
Walter Mondale (1984) - 16 points
Jimmy Carter (1980) - 17 points
Gerald Ford (1976) - 7 points
Hubert Humphrey (1968) - 4 points

Taking the cake for the most pathetic convention bounce in modern political history is George McGovern from 1972. Minus 3 points! And we all know how THAT race turned out.

So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.

Personally, I think Newsweak is being overly optimistic. I don't sense any Kerry bounce out there. And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: dncconvention; kerry; kerrybounce; newsweak; polls
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 81-100101-120121-140 ... 301-320 next last
To: concerned about politics

Did you get that FOX poll data from the website or the tv? Just want to know so I can find it. Thanks


101 posted on 07/31/2004 9:39:44 PM PDT by ableChair
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Zechariah11
Kerry's wife was a huge, pompous turn-off. She compares very unfavorably with Laura Bush.

That's why the Dems have apparently turned her into a Stepford Wife for the rest of the campaign after that finger-pointing incident - just like they did with Hillary in 1992 (remember how she suddenly started baking cookies with her daughter?).

We probably won't see the real Teresa Heinz again until after the election. And so long as Kerry loses, we won't have to care.

102 posted on 07/31/2004 9:40:15 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (High tide has passed and is running out for John Kerry)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 89 | View Replies]

To: BriarBey
They picked a dud for a reason. Clintons OWN Kerry, he is merely a puppet, dems win this election and Hillary doesn't have a chance in 2008.

My husband calls him "the sacrificial lamb." He has to be dumped. If his poll number remains too high close to the election, expect a "anonymous" leak that'll nail him, and it won't be leaked by us.
Hillary will have to run against an incumbent from her own party rather than fresh meat if she "allows" him to win..

103 posted on 07/31/2004 9:40:34 PM PDT by concerned about politics ( Liberals are still stuck at the bottom of Maslow's Hierarchy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 61 | View Replies]

To: binger

Fabulous!!


104 posted on 07/31/2004 9:40:43 PM PDT by Zechariah11 ("so they weighed for my hire thirty pieces of silver")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 42 | View Replies]

To: SamAdams76

Interesting.


105 posted on 07/31/2004 9:41:25 PM PDT by FourPeas (Kerry Edwards back home.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: doug from upland

When the undecided/uncommitted decide our elections, you get the same result as Leno gets on his jaywalk bits.

The fools who can't make up their minds or see that Bush is leagues better than Kerry are going to decide to vote on crap like who has the better haircut. Ugh!


106 posted on 07/31/2004 9:41:57 PM PDT by RicocheT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 79 | View Replies]

To: Salvation

just glad to see the younger americans out with bush signs. you would think, as the media portrays, the younger crowds are for the breck boys.


107 posted on 07/31/2004 9:42:08 PM PDT by rineaux (hardcore)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: gorebegone

ROFL

Perfect!


108 posted on 07/31/2004 9:43:24 PM PDT by Shortstop7
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SamAdams76; Howlin

This is so very excellent and spirit lifting.
Thanks Sam and thanks for ping Howlin.
Bookmarked.


109 posted on 07/31/2004 9:43:28 PM PDT by onyx (The FRENCH capitulate. Are you FRENCH or GOP? BUSH/CHENEY '04.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: McGavin999

WOHOOO .. GREAT POST!!!

Send them a message they will hear LOUD AND CLEAR!!


110 posted on 07/31/2004 9:45:30 PM PDT by Mo1 (Kerry & Edwards .... they will leave no Special Interest Group behind)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 99 | View Replies]

To: ableChair
Did you get that FOX poll data from the website or the tv?

Heard it on TV. They were discussing it. I remember because I watched Kerry's speech, and expected a sudden drop. I was surprised he got the 2.8. I felt it was way too much.

111 posted on 07/31/2004 9:45:46 PM PDT by concerned about politics ( Liberals are still stuck at the bottom of Maslow's Hierarchy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 101 | View Replies]

To: concerned about politics

My husband calls him "the sacrificial lamb."
***

Good analogy cause that is exactly what he is.


112 posted on 07/31/2004 9:46:10 PM PDT by BriarBey
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 103 | View Replies]

To: ableChair
Yep, and the funny part of it is that the 4 point bounce is probably a gross exaggeration. Three other sources are suggesting a LOSS for Kerry. We'll know on Monday.

I'm surprised it's taken this long for the polls to start coming out

I expected to see an overnight poll on Friday ..

113 posted on 07/31/2004 9:47:06 PM PDT by Mo1 (Kerry & Edwards .... they will leave no Special Interest Group behind)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 100 | View Replies]

To: rwfromkansas
There are not that many undecideds to swing back and forth with a convention.

Yea, that's the Dems pitch all right. We will see how strong their people are for Kerry.

114 posted on 07/31/2004 9:47:17 PM PDT by gilliam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: SamAdams76

What makes me a little nervous about this is that in 1968 Hubert Humphrey BARELY lost to Richard Nixon. Had it not been for George Wallace, Humphrey would have won.


115 posted on 07/31/2004 9:48:38 PM PDT by no dems (Stupid people get on my nerves; for real.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

You might have a good point. It seems to me that the actual platform of the DNC is a rickety construction because of the theoretical goals of the different parts of the Democratic party. Femiminism, Identity politics, marxism, democratic socialism, and labor unionism are all there in their base.

So, I suppose you are correct to say that they lack a coherent message, because they have about *five* coherent messages going at once. All of which are contradicatory. That could explain why the Kerry message and slogans keep changing. They have to.

The problem for them is that Conservatives don't have this problem. A libertarian and a complete RINO probably believe mostly the same things, but they believe them at totally different levels of intensity. Same ideas, different volume level. That might be why Bush can stay on message so effectively, and Kerry has to waffle.

It's a thought.


116 posted on 07/31/2004 9:48:38 PM PDT by Threepwood
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 87 | View Replies]

To: SamAdams76

MSNBC Polling shows 5 pt. bounce, but the numbers overall aren't pretty and we've got a lot of work to do:

THURSDAY SAMPLE
BUSH/CHENEY 47
KERRY/EDWARDS 49

FRIDAY SAMPLE
BUSH/CHENEY 41
KERRY/EDWARDS 54


117 posted on 07/31/2004 9:49:18 PM PDT by mastequilla
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: concerned about politics
Yes, but they look like they're deeply in love. It's great for the fudge packer and thong snapper vote.

Honestly, I would not put it past them to do it AND then say they are fudgepacking each other, just to appeal to the homo sector of society!!

118 posted on 07/31/2004 9:49:18 PM PDT by prophetic
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: Lady In Blue

Canadians have an interest in your elections because they affect us. If you don't like that, find a way to not affect us anymore. I'm going to ignore the rest of your post, because it wasn't indicative of serious thought.


119 posted on 07/31/2004 9:51:29 PM PDT by Threepwood
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 94 | View Replies]

To: hinckley buzzard
I hope you are right, of course, but just for the record, Hubert Humphrey came within a hair of winning in 1968. It was like 43%-43% with George Wallace taking the rest.

True, but Humphrey was the incumbent VP and Nixon won the electoral vote 301 to 191 (56% to 36%). Of course, there was the little matter of the Vietnam war.

120 posted on 07/31/2004 9:51:29 PM PDT by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 81-100101-120121-140 ... 301-320 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson