Posted on 07/31/2004 3:28:22 PM PDT by NYS_Eric
For Bush, every penny counts
Bush and Kerry are in a virtual dead heat according to the Iowa Electronic Market -- a winner-take-all futures market with a great track record of picking the victors in November. At midweek, Bush was trading at 50.5 cents and Kerry at 49.9 cents. Kerry had taken a small lead going into the Democratic National Convention, his first lead of the year in the Iowa market. But Bush pulled ahead by the convention's halfway point. Looks like the Boston con game -- "We're not really left liberals who believe in soaking the rich, high taxes, massive government spending and wartime U.N. appeasement" -- is not working all that well. Between Michael Moore and Teresa Heinz Kerry -- and not to mention the Woody Allen sperm-suit picture of Kerry leaked by NASA -- the Democrats have a bit of a PR problem. Bill Clinton couldn't bail them out. Nor could any of the other big Dem guns, like Carter, Gore and Dean. True, it's not what you would call a really deep bench. But you'd think the Democrats would get a noticeable lift out of a week in the limelight. The Iowa futures contracts, however, are not all rosy for the Republicans: The GOP could lose the Senate. At midweek in the market for the Senate, the RSlose contract was trading at 45.5 cents, the RSgain was at 43.1 cents, and the RShold was at a mere 11.4 cents. For those who believe in lower taxes, this is not good. The fact that the Republican Senate can't get a corporate tax cut passed, can't make the Bush tax cuts on dividends and capital gains permanent and can't get a budget passed (all while continuing to press for a budget-busting pork-barrel highway bill) is undoubtedly playing a role in the bad news from the Iowa markets. The House, however, is in a much more bullish position. At last look, the RHhold contract was trading at 45.5 cents, the RHgain issue at 39.5 cents and the RHlose at a low 14.9 cents. When you step back and look at all these results, there's a hint that the November election could produce a Bush White House working with a Democratic Senate and a Republican House. In other words, preserving the president's pro-investor tax-cut package is possible -- but it won't be easy. Undoubtedly, results from the Iowa Electronic Market have been a drag on the stock market for many months. In fact, economists Arthur Laffer and Tom Gallagher have published tight-fitting graphs that show a clear correlation between John Kerry's rise in the Iowa and Tradesport.com markets, and the slump in cyclical growth stocks and the overall stock market. The expectation of multipronged rate-hiking by the Federal Reserve is another source of angst for the stock market. The Iowa market sponsors a pay-to-play vote on Fed monetary policy, and the news isn't great. The FRup August contract shows a very high 90 cent price for a Fed rate hike at the next open market meeting, scheduled for Aug. 10. The FRup contract for September shows a high 80 cent price probability for another rate hike at the Fed meeting scheduled for Sept. 21. Multipronged rate-hiking is not very helpful to George Bush, either. The investor class is a core Bush constituency. If investors are in a bad mood over falling stocks and rising rates, they may not turn out by sufficient margins in November to push Bush over the finish line. Pollster Scott Rasmussen finds only a 3 percentage-point advantage for Bush over Kerry when it comes to likely investor-class voters. But at this stage of a very tight game, poll watchers take good news where they can get it. After two nights of liberal shenanigans in Boston, Bush had Kerry beat by half a penny. By the Republican convention, he might have well more than a nickel's chance of four more years.
Larry Kudlow
©2004
There is no reason to think the senate will go dem. 6 democratic seats are open in southern states... look for a democratic loss in senate seats.
I really think we're being jerked around by the media, including Fox News. It's all gloom and doom for Bush and Republicans but didn't they do that same routine in the mid-term elections?
The pickup I keep dreaming about is South Dakota. But I've seen zero polling on that race so far. I've donated twice to Thune this year, but he's got a tough road to travel.
It's all gloom and doom for Bush and Republicans but didn't they do that same routine in the mid-term elections?
Very good point. However, we shouldnt let that lull us into ignoring the fact that rove hasnt been running a very effective campaign.
The general thesis around here seems to be:
gamblers can't be wrong.
LOL!
Sorry, liberal states can only elect two senators at a time... and the last I checked they are all booked-up...
I have a Post-it in my cubicle with a Larry Kudlow prediction he made on Rush's show back in November: The Dow will hit 12,500 in 2004. That doesn't look very likely right now. Neither does the chance that the Rats take back the Senate.
If the price of oil goes down, and the employment numbers are good next Friday, Bush's stock goes up. ( No pun intended). That should help the Senate/House too. It certainly doesn't help that the GOP is giving a Senate seat to the dems in Illinois by letting O'Bama run unopposed. Heck, Scott Peterson could win there if he ran unopposed.
Yes! Election afternoon, 2002, I thought the Gop was in trouble because of the media info.
Thune is requesting mega town meetings with Daschle. Daschle says no. Not a good sign.
In the senate, South Carolina, North Carolina Georgia and Florida are givens. If you don't at least agree about SC and Ga. don't read on. Fla will be a blood bath for the rats in that race. In NC eksome bowels couldn't beat Libby and she was not a good campaigner. In SD and La. the rats should not think they will walk away with it. Both seats are very winnable. John Thune will not make the mistakes he made the last time and South Dakotans like to divide their representation. The ratette winning the special for Janklow's seat was not necessarily a good thing for dash hole. Don't believe me? Ask yourself why tiny tommie would testify as a character witness FOR Janklow? Because he did not want him to get convicted and lose his seat. He knew what would happen. Colorado will soon crystalize in our favor. Colorado was a 100% red state and they will not cut W's legs out from under him.
In Alaska, the governor is using the drilling issue to GOP and his daughter's advantage. He will allow drilling on off shore state owned land and that and the conservative bent of Alaska will hold the seat. Illinois is a lost cause. So we will win anywhere between 4 and 6 seats. Hold Col.and Alaska and lose Ill. It looks like a plus 2 or 3 night for us. One last thing. The ratmedia lying bull shiite polls had Smith of Oregon, Allard and Libby Dole losing by 8 or 9 points as final numbers. All were about that number in reverse.
Help me. Whats the difference between the Republicans loosing the Senate and the Democraps gaining seats...since the minority is still the majority anyways? Even if the Repub-I Can't's win more seats, you think that Bush is going to get anything accomplished with the Democrap Bullsh!t fillabusters? As long as spineless wimps like Frist and before him Lott are in command, it doesn't matter who wins the Senate!
I disagree! Campaigns(have you been involved in one)like life,have a ebb and flow effect.Why shoot your best shots when people are not paying attention? You shoot when you see the whites of their eyes. Rove is a genius.He knows what he's doing. He's been running campaigns for a long time now.If anything you should be worried about how Kerry is running his campaign! Bush/Cheney and company know what they're doing.
NC, GA, and SC are predicted to go Rep--but we'll probably lose Alaska and Illinois (for sure). That's a +1 net change. OK will hopefully stay (R) but what about Florida? Where else can we get another? Dashle is predicted to win (sadly).
Seems that if they bring in federal election observers to the reservations, Thune should have a more than even chance. Dashle's first election was won with a "surprise" box full of votes from a reservation. Observers prevented that from happening in St. Louis in 2002 and should be required for SD this time.
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