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How Long Will the Oil Age Last?
Popular Science ^ | August 2004 | Kevin Kelleher

Posted on 07/31/2004 1:48:26 PM PDT by SunkenCiv

Chief among the pessimists is the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, a group of European scientists who estimate that maximum oil production around the globe will peak in 2008 as demand rises from developing economies such as China... Others believe, like Maugeri, that the number of glasses is virtually limitless. John Felmy, chief economist at the American Petroleum Institute, argues that peak oil- production estimates are so far off that for all practical purposes we might as well act as if oil will flow forever. "Ever since oil was first harvested in the 1800s, people have said we'd run out of the stuff," Felmy says. In the 1880s a Standard Oil executive sold off shares in the company out of fear that its reserves were close to drying up. The Club of Rome, a nonprofit global think tank, said in the 1970s that we'd hit peak oil in 2003. It didn't happen.

(Excerpt) Read more at popsci.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: autos; bigoil; biosphere; conservation; ecology; energy; environment; gold; hydrogen; johnfelmy; kyoto; napalminthemorning; oil; opec; peakoil; pollution; science; technology
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To: Wonder Warthog
So, IOW, it's not BS, you'd just solve that particular problem differently. Driving a car is not generally a matter of cruising at a fixed speed, and that's what he's referring to.
61 posted on 07/31/2004 3:45:11 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
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To: RightWhale
"The Club of Rome is resisting the idea of developing outer space."

And what do you suppose that it could be 'developed' into?

Perhaps a giant black hole to suck up massive amounts of tax dollars?

62 posted on 07/31/2004 3:47:29 PM PDT by editor-surveyor (There are thousands of men of higher moral character than Hanoi John Kerry waiting on Death Row)
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To: neutrino
Yet I note that West Texas Intermediate has advanced in price
Plenty of oil is available, and that hasn't got anything to do with the fluctuation in price -- that's a matter of how much is available right now, and on guesses as to what the price will be in various time periods in the future. Crude used to sell at lower prices, but so did everything else. Forty years ago $2000 would buy a family sized four door car, and crude ran about $8 a barrel. Minimum wage rose to $1.15 in September of that year, and by 1974 (OPEC embargo) had risen to $2. Oil remains cheap, even though the minimum wage is only $5.15. Fuel economy of said autos has risen (not much in recent years) and that has reduced the amount spent by consumers on the actual fuel.

63 posted on 07/31/2004 3:51:56 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
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To: SunkenCiv

 

I have about ten half-filled cans of these in my garage. That's how I determine my "oil age".

 

64 posted on 07/31/2004 3:52:07 PM PDT by Fintan (You weren't expecting an intelligent response, were ya????)
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To: Wonder Warthog
IOW, no extra heating -- since the light converted in orbit would have been intercepted by the Earth anyway -- and actually cooling -- because the best available photovoltaics are only 30 per cent efficient.
65 posted on 07/31/2004 3:53:51 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
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To: RightWhale
The same cannot be said for Ginger Baker though. ;')
66 posted on 07/31/2004 3:55:21 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
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To: TexasCowboy
"Everything we do in our everyday lives depends on oil."

Everything that we do in our everyday lives will always depand on something, and there will always be doom-sayers telling us that we are about to run out of it, or that it is excessively influencing our foreign policy.

67 posted on 07/31/2004 3:58:58 PM PDT by editor-surveyor (There are thousands of men of higher moral character than Hanoi John Kerry waiting on Death Row)
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To: editor-surveyor
Tell me about these bent columns, it rings no bells.
68 posted on 07/31/2004 3:59:53 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
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To: TexasCowboy
I agree, and was aware of that. I don't think people who get sucked into the whole "greedy oil companies" rhetoric (or for that matter, "greedy Halliburton" rhetoric) think it through. Oh, well, we don't need to move around as much; we don't need paint, pharmaceuticals, polyester...
69 posted on 07/31/2004 4:02:17 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
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To: SunkenCiv

By all means, advance your arguments. I hope lots of people agree with you. It gives me more opportunity to accumulate investments that will make profits for me as oil advances.


70 posted on 07/31/2004 4:05:04 PM PDT by neutrino (Lord, what fools these mortals be! (William Shakespeare, Midsummer Nights Dream))
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To: paleocon patriarch
Were the energy cost to extract a barrel of oil to approach a barrel of oil, productivity would fall, because the energy cost of doing pretty much everything would rise, leading to so-called COLAs in labor contracts and so forth, wild wild inflation, etc, worse in degree but similar in quality to what happened in the early to mid-1970s. However, saying that will happen is like saying Soylent Green is a documentary -- the price will rise over time, and as it does, other sources become economical to use. And all the time, the efficiency of various processes (including transportation) will increase, reducing the amount spent. As the late Julian Simon wrote, what does and doesn't constitute a natural resource is a function of human ingenuity.
71 posted on 07/31/2004 4:09:57 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
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To: Fintan
:'D
72 posted on 07/31/2004 4:11:12 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
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To: bert
The oil age will last until replaced by the Fusion Age.

Perhaps even the Tesla Age.

73 posted on 07/31/2004 4:11:45 PM PDT by William Terrell (Individuals can exist without government but government can't exist without individuals.)
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To: SunkenCiv
"Tell me about these bent columns..."

I believe that it was 1989, or 1990, when two researchers, working on ideas similar to Pons and Fleischman's work, had made a tightly sealed vessel of about 1 liter capacity to contain their experiment. The experiment was only about 20 seconds old when the vessel ruptured catastrophically, killing both men and badly damaging the columns.

Nobody has ever fessed-up about what was in the vessel, but witnesses said that it was quite benign for the 24 hours that it had rested on the bench before being closed. It was fully self contained, and was not heated, or even connected to anything else.

74 posted on 07/31/2004 4:15:01 PM PDT by editor-surveyor (There are thousands of men of higher moral character than Hanoi John Kerry waiting on Death Row)
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To: bikepacker67

....I want to know why we aren't generating electricity using the Fission age......


It's quite simple. The leftist who are now supporting John Kerry told and believed the big lie..... Nucs kill.

They kept adding trivial safety measure after trivial safety measure until the cost and complexity were overwhelming. It was death by a thousand adds. Each drew a drop of blood and the cumulative effect was death.

"A little Nookie never hurt anybody."


75 posted on 07/31/2004 4:16:44 PM PDT by bert (Peace is only halftime !)
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To: neutrino
from "Wired" though probably a dead link, I didn't check:
Neutralizing Diesel's Idle Threat
by John Gartner
02:00 AM Oct. 10, 2002 PT


George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

76 posted on 07/31/2004 4:18:17 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
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To: bert

The longer we can hold out with oil the more advanced the technology to replace it will be. Oil is cheap compared to all the other energy sources, so drill, drill. drill !


77 posted on 07/31/2004 4:21:25 PM PDT by John Lenin
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To: William Terrell
I like how you think. :')
"Ere many generations pass, our machinery will be driven by a power obtainable at any point in the universe. This idea is not novel... We find it in the delightful myth of Antheus, who derives power from the earth; we find it among the subtle speculations of one of your splendid mathematicians... Throughout space there is energy. Is this energy static or kinetic.? If static our hopes are in vain; if kinetic - and this we know it is, for certain - then it is a mere question of time when men will succeed in attaching their machinery to the very wheelwork of nature." -- Nicola Tesla, late 19th century
Tesla: Man Out of Time Tesla:
Man Out of Time

by Margaret Cheney


78 posted on 07/31/2004 4:23:11 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
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To: John Lenin
I couldn't agree more, and let's start with the ANWR!
79 posted on 07/31/2004 4:24:08 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
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To: bert
It's quite simple. The leftist who are now supporting John Kerry told and believed the big lie..... Nucs kill.

I'm an angler/backpacker/MTB'er and these guys are IDIOTS.

Yes, nuclear waste is dangerous and must be securely stored. But it's overall amount compared to the tons and tons of sulfides that coal and oil power-plants produce is far more dangerous to ecosystems.

We could be producing googlewatts (kidding) of electricity via modern nuclear power-plants - and use the extra to produce H2 for fuelcells.

80 posted on 07/31/2004 4:26:06 PM PDT by bikepacker67 (Sandy wasn't stuffing his socks, he was stuffing A sock.)
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