Zogby: ZERO Bounce for Kerry

NewsMax ^ | 7-30-04

[sissyjane]

No, you're not a pessimist, but a realist.

[nmh]

This is not good news for those Demoncrats.

[proud American in Canada]

"SAVE US FROM THE KING OF BOREDOM."

Insomniacs for Kerry! ;)

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

And lastly his walking around the stage just showing off his Pearson

Is that legal?

[BadAndy]

Don't expect a big bounce from either convention. The bounce is usually due to the movement of undecideds. This year the pool of undecideds is relatively small so they wil have less of an impact on the polling numbers.

[BillyCrockett]

"If more people knew he served in 'Nam - it could turn things around for him."

After John O'Neil gets done with sKerry, the Poodle might wish he never brought up Vietnam.

[gopwinsin04]

We could be right back where we are started with Bush ahead about 2-3 points by the time September rolls around..

[cousair]

Wrong! I took the poll and it was reported as zero bounce. If you didn't take the electronic poll or weren't called by phone, you would not know the results.

[twigs]

I agree with you. The sppech was good for Kerry and certainly good enough for his choir. Plus, the staging was excellent. I expect him to get a good boost; it's part of the game.

[jveritas]

How many swing voters were listening to the speech yesterday?

Do you know why we call them swing voters? Because they do not give a damn about politics and they only pay attention to the election until in the last three weeks of the campaign

The total number of people who watched the convention was very low and the super vast majority of them, 99%, where people who made up their mind.

Let us stop this crap about the swing voters…

[Sinner6]

Zogby's big claim to fame was that he nailed it 96 and noone else was even close. Since then he has been slipping. And yes he is a lefty but it USUALLY doesn't affect his numbers.

[RushCrush]

We are all dumber for having heard him blather on for 55 minutes...........

[Rokke]

When did you take the poll?

[daybreakcoming]

Those who believe in fairy/fanciful tales (AKA "the speech") will give kerry a temporary bounce. Reality will come back to some. I have turned very cynical with the poll takers (especially Zogby) after watching our country governed by so-called polls by our last president.

[Celtic Conservative]

Mark my words, there WILL be a significant bounce! I predict a 7 point bounce, who knows, maybe 10.

I tend to think there will be a bounce too. But just this morning I heard Susan "marlboro voice" Estrich say that J.effin.K might not see a post convention bounce , But then she quickly added he would definitely see a post debate bounce for sure. I dunno, but sounds like susan was hedging a bit on the likelihood of a bounce. Perhaps some of the dim faithful are concerned about the lack of bounce? Also , Susan took pretty strong exception to being introduced as a "democratic strategist" . They just should have announced her as a democrat shill, she would be mad at that too, but at least we would get a kick out of it.

CC

[Cagey]

I agree with your assessment about NewsMax. I've seen them spin headlines like a Maytag dryer many times. However, this time they got it half right. So far, no gain for Kerry, but there is some slippage for Bush/Cheney.

Below is from Zogby.com

 While Democrats Rally in Boston,
Kerry-Edwards Leads By Five Points Over
Bush-Cheney (48%-43%), New Zogby America Poll Reveals

 

While the Democratic Party rallies in Boston at the Democratic National Convention, the presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards holds a five point lead over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney (48%-43%), according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1001 likely voters was conducted from Monday through Thursday (July 26-29, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.2.

Presidential Ticket  %	July27-29	July 6-7
Kerry-Edwards	48	48
Bush-Cheney	43	46
Undecided	8	5

Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of 1001 likely voters chosen at random nationwide.  All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Monday, July 26 through Thursday, July 29. The margin of error is +/3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender and presidential voter to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[deport]

Kerry winning in the South...... Look out it's all over..... Hell is about to freeze.

.

Zogby America Poll. July 26-29, 2004. N=1,001 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2 (total sample).
General Election Trial Heats:
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Other (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	ALL	43	48	2	8
	Men	46	47	2	6
	Women	40	49	2	9
	East	33	55	-	12
	South	46	48	1	5
	Midwest	48	43	2	7
	West	42	49	3	7
	Trend:
	7/6-7/04	46	48	2	5
		Bush	Kerry	Nader	Badnarik	Peroutka	Other (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%	%	%
	7/26-29/04	41	46	3	-	1	1	8
	7/6-7/04	44	47	2	1	-	1	5
"Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be reelected as president of the United States, or is it time for someone new?" Trend includes slight variations in wording.
		Deserves Reelection	Someone New	Unsure
		%	%	%
	7/26-29/04	42	51	7
	7/6-7/04	43	53	4

[Arrowhead1952]

Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender and presidential voter to more accurately reflect the voting population.

Seems odd that they add weight for region and party in a poll. Who did they poll? If this was in Taxachusettes, what did they expect?

[txrangerette]

Someone posted that here - CNN led
pretty big with Convention viewers
and all agreed that was expected.

B/c Dems watch CNN, and that's the
main demographic watching this.

Most FReepers watched on C-SPAN,
then channel-hopped to get pundits
afterward. That isn't measured by
the ratings you mentioned.