Posted on 07/30/2004 6:36:51 AM PDT by jmstein7
It didn't even play in Martha's Vineyard. They are dedicated Clintonians there.
Kerry talks about uniting the nation. He can't even unite the Party. There are two definite wings to the Dem Party--the Kerry/Ted Kennedy, and the Bill/Hillary Clinton.
And they hate each other's guts.
"I wonder about that. I think that this time the electorate is so strongly polarized to one side or the other by now that the undecided pool to get a bounce from is small compared to past elections."
Maybe, we won't know for sure til November. What I think has to be of primary concern is there isn't ANY movement in the overnight polling data.
Given the huge amounts of cash spent, and the four nights of coverage, I think no movement at all was inconceivable to any political operative.
If his keynote address bored everybody to the point nobody cared....that would explain no movement in the polls.
"Cahill's Gambit" is what I'm calling it for now, in honor of Mary Beth Cahill, Kerry's Campaign manager.
It will either be used in the future as a punchline, or as a viable strategy.
I suspect punchline is far more likely.
On the other hand, after $85 million spent on opposition adds the GOP is still, at best, neck-and-neck with Kerry. Their best effort to define the man and it was a flop. I don't think anyone expected that to result in no movement.
I don't know, this time around. This is a strange one. I talk to people and I can't believe how strong opinions are. I literally do not know a single undecided. Everyone I know is either pro-President or else want him out so bad that they can taste it. Not even Reagan's reelection comes close to it in terms of vehemence, and people talk about the throw-the-bum-out Democrats from that one. And people keep saying that the anybody-but-Bush people are weak support for Kerry but I disagree. When you don't care who you vote for so long as you vote out Bush then there is nothing Kerry could possibly to to change their vote away from him. So I don't think that there will be a bump from the DNC or the RNC. I don't know if the few remaining swing voters out there will be converted to either side, or if they'll just stay home come November. This election is definitely one for the books.
"On the other hand, after $85 million spent on opposition adds the GOP is still, at best, neck-and-neck with Kerry. Their best effort to define the man and it was a flop. I don't think anyone expected that to result in no movement."
I think you miss what that 85 million actually bought.
That "defining" of Kerry as a liberal was so effective the Senator couldn't mention his 19 years in office at that level. Kerry couldn't say anything about Gun Control, couldn't say anything about Welfare Reform, couldn't say anything about Taxes. It was so effective, the entire liberal rants and raves were cut from the convention, with the exception of Al Sharpton, who nobody takes seriously.
I know what you mean about people having made up their minds already. Here in southern Ohio, its Bush country 100%. Up around Cleveland, it clearly isn't. Center of the state reflects its location between the two points.
Where we differ is I don't believe enough people will go out of their way to vote come November for a man, Kerry, that they don't strongly believe in. I suspect the Democrats are going to be stunned by the low turnout, in much the same way Dean was stunned by the low turn out of the Deaniacs during the primaries. Remember, the Dem primary in Iowa was going to be dominated by those cute orange hats of the Deaniacs.
Thats the "core" of the support to replace Bush. To date, they have not showed up at any polling booth in the primaries, which is how Kerry got the nomination.
The internet is a great tool, but the Dean campaign shows just how illusory "posted support" can be when required to go beyond the virtual world we inhabit here at FR, or over at DU.
Either way, both of us will be watching this play out with great interest.
bttt
Nothing for the Breck girl - nothing from a week long convention. Just wait until folks actually get to know them!
I get polled by zogby about once a week, via an online form. Kinda cool.
French poodles bounce. In 1991 when Clinton was elected I kicked one over a hedge and he bounced several times.
And sometimes, Judith, the bump NEVER SHOWS UP!
After watching the convention as dispassionately as possible, our son observed that if Kerry wins this election, it was rigged from the start.
"If more people knew he served in 'Nam - it could turn things around for him."
I don't know if you know this, but he got 3 purple stars. That's almost one per months of service (/sarcasm).
Bush on the other hand has the chance to win back a lot of votes with a strong campaign and a clear message at next month's convention.
Thus I see a "bounce" for George Bush during the next 6-10 weeks. By the time of the debates, I expect Bush to be close to a 10 point lead in these much-ballyhooed daily tracking polls.
If Bush is able to make mincemeat of Kerry at the debates, Bush might beat Kerry by even a wider margin than the one that his father beat Mike Dukakis by.
**the Kerry Edwards ticket has failed to add even a single percentage point to its support.**
I predict that they will be down by four or five points next week.
yes...but we must remain earnest in pursuit of our victory.
I think Gore had even a bigger bounce in 2000. A huge bounce. If I'm not mistaken, Bush went from 17 points up to 10 points down in about a week. That's a 27 point bounce! And remember that the RNC convention was held first that year so some of us thought Bush was toast.
I remember Rush practically having a heart attack over this and many of us here were in shock as those post-DNC polls came out.
I think Gore had even a bigger bounce in 2000. A huge bounce. If I'm not mistaken, Bush went from 17 points up to 10 points down in about a week. That's a 27 point bounce! And remember that the RNC convention was held first that year so some of us thought Bush was toast.
I remember Rush practically having a heart attack over this and many of us here were in shock as those post-DNC polls came out.
As I have said before...Zogby skews stuff pretty favorable for dems.
So I never worry when they say things like..."Kerry leads in the South". If you look at their internal data.....a lot of times it does not add up. And their sample is always in an area the gets them what they want.
Did anyone else find it a little "weird" tat Kerry took a movie camera with him to VietNam???? Also, we have a disconnect here, unless I missed something during Steven Speilberg's ad naseum video tribute. The narrator said: In 1966 he volunteered to go to VietNam to serve his country. If he came back in 1971 to start his anti war antics with Jane Fonda, and only served 14 weeks in VietNam due to "wounds" from paper cuts, what did he do the rest of the time???
Also mysteriously missing was his great accomplishments in the U.S. Senate.
This jerk REALLY is the Manchurian Candidate!!! Be afraid. Be VERY afraid!!
Acually, the Zogby polls appear to show a bounce. The Newsmax article describes the Zogby results in a deliberately confusing manner. Before, Zogby reported a 48/46 split. Now, Zogby reports a 48/43 split, with more undecided. By my book, that is a move from up 2 percentage points to up 5. Not much of a bounce, but a bounce. It's true that Zogby reports Kerry's percentage has stayed constant, but it's the difference between the 2 candidates' numbers that counts. I am quite convinced that Zogby is an unreliable, pro-Democrat pollster, but it doesn't help our cause to distort or "spin" Zogby's results.
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