Posted on 07/28/2004 12:38:25 AM PDT by JohnHuang2
With the Sept. 11 commission report pointing fingers of responsibility at Iran and Tehran inching closer to the development of a nuclear arms program, is it only a matter of time before Israel strikes the country's nuclear facilities as it did in Iraq in 1981?
Israeli planners tell Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin a strike at Iran's nuclear plant would hardly resemble the attack on Iraq's Ossirak plant 23 years ago.
For one thing, the element of surprise is all but gone.
The Ossirak destruction happened under relatively quiet conditions in the region and was a classic first-time unpredictable attack. The Iranian setting is completely different. It is important to understand, and be aware of the fact Iranian military planners are active in assessing the risk factor for their nuclear complexes, and they are taking all necessary and possible counter measures available to them.
From a pure military position the destruction of the Busher complex, say the sources, does not require an exceptionally sophisticated maneuver. There is no need for a cloak and dagger operation to discover the sites which are well observed through a series of satellites. A regular iron bomb could flatten the dome or destroy other nearby facilities, not to mention the use of smart bombs, which in theory cannot miss. The risk level would be for the crews burdened with executing such an air raid.
Israeli experts stress there are less than three years before the site goes warm. In planning the Ossirak operation the Israeli air force carefully considered the stage of the nuclear reactor. It was of paramount importance to destroy a cold reactor, knowing the destruction of a warm one could lead to a new Chernobyl-like ecological disaster.
Israeli planners are obviously working under the pressure of a timing factor, probably trying to figure out if and when the Iranian reactor will go warm. Scientists carefully bear in mind the ripple effect of such a scenario, saying that although the Busher province is sparsely inhabited, it is close to other centers on both sides of the Persian Gulf.
If attacked while in operation the danger to civilians and allied forces and navies, could be significant, including the possibility wrong timing from a meteorological point of view could cause a huge area to become contaminated with radioactive fallout.
A review of the regional map, and analyzing the Israeli air force capabilities, suggests an aerial penetration of the Busher area could come through the air space of Arab states such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and even through Syria and Iraq. The Israeli air force has successfully proven, on more than one occasion, it possesses some of the best technology to enable such a move. As a matter of fact, in a number of instances the Israeli air force demonstrated its technological-scientific know-how, described by experts as most probably having an "electronic stealth capability."
Other options, such as a long range flight over the Red Sea and around the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula all the way to Busher and back, would require a high level of cooperation with many air forces operating in the area. An approach to Busher from the south would be almost impossible due to the density of military air activity in the region.
A retired Israeli air force general, a veteran of many sophisticated operations, told G2B: "There is no problem to plan an operation and to destroy the complex, but the skies of the Middle East are not as open as they were 23 years ago."
The general added that the Gulf area alone has today one of the largest concentrations of air activity including counter, detection and monitoring measures. He added that density could on the other hand be an asset, helping to disguise the movement of a few aircraft, though only with the full cooperation of friendly air forces will the attackers be able to return home safely.
Military options go far beyond an air raid. Here are a number of alternative options:
Nobody, with the exception of a very small group of Israeli planners, probably headed by the prime minister himself, is fully familiar with the specifics of the option to be selected, the timing of its execution or even whether an attack will indeed come.
One Israeli analyst talking to G2B said: "Such decisions are made in a very lonely environment with no friends to share the burden."
He also used a western metaphor by comparing Gary Cooper cleaning up a town with no support coming from those who were affected by a dangerous hoodlum. He summarized his assessment by saying: "For Israel the decision will come at 'high noon' with no partners and no support other than her own resources and risk taking."
Another option might be to make sure that Israel and other friendlies have the best ABM defense and counterstrike ability that we can give them. That might later divert the Iran threat to those particular Euros and northern Asians who are now resurrecting NAZI conspiracy stories and taking the Iranian Ayatollah side.
Otherwise, do the missile strike thing, and make it look like Russia or France launched 'em.
"Q) If The Most Holy One of Israel is for you, does it matter who's against you or on you side? A) NO!"
Godspeed Israel!
b
You would think the Arabs learned their lesson in 1967...
Iran is going to get whacked…not if but when…
And this is going to set the stage for something BIG.
It is a race. Before Israel launches, Western interests will sttempt to change the government by coup. Failing that, there will be a strike.
Timeframe with Bush - 8-12 months till site is destroyed.
With Kerry - Iran has nukes in three years.
A missile launch from a disguised freighter or camouflaged tanker armed with surface-to-surface missiles. In such a case the launch can come from anywhere in the region and evidence could be immediately disposed of by scuttling the vessel.
Let's hope the Iranians have dealt with those Mad Mullahs, before it is necessary, otherwise this option sounds perfect.
If not then
That picture has made the rounds in the law enforcement bomb disposal community for years, but you give it a whole new twist!
LOL!! You're just too much!
Between my main computer getting Zotted, minor car trouble, and other time-consuming events I've been very busy lately. Hopefully things will die down soon, and I'll be back up to normal Freeping level.
A launch from a submarine would be much easier to execute and deny, and Israeli subs are capable of firing guided missiles via torpedo tube.
He summarized his assessment by saying: "For Israel the decision will come at 'high noon' with no partners and no support other than her own resources and risk taking."
Which of course, is the act of a free individual, beholding to no one, ready to stand in their own defense.
John Kerry wouldn't like it.
Well it would be pretty entertaining to see the Mohammedan world explode in rage after the act. They would go nuts for weeks afterwards. The wild card is Europe, would they have the balls to condemn and boycott Israel because it took out some Islamic nukes?
But who in their right mind trusts Mohammedans with nukes. I don't trust them with c4 or dynamite. These psychos killed 70 in Iraq today with a cowardly car bomb attack. They have it in them make a cowardly nuclear attack. They are crazy and bloodthirsty
Then with this great intel, the Israelis have perfected the Policy of Preemption.
They are monitoring the Iranian situation better than any other country. They are also monitoring Kerry's chances of being elected.
If by some fluke Kerry is elected, the Iranian nuclear assets will be taken out by the Israelis before Kerry would be sworn in. Also, the $oddomite's WMD sent to Syria to start the liberal mantra of no WMDs will be taken out in massive strikes at the same time.
If their intel shows that Iran could use a nuclear weapon before our election, they will not wait for our election.
One way to help this situation is to insure that Kerry, the Wrong Stuff. does not become our president. Defeat him soundly this November.
Any Questions?
Heck, with the regularity of Palestinian 'work related accidents' (their bombs blowing prematurely), I'm sure that it'll be a very passable excuse to get Israel off the hook.
Israel does possess tactical nukes as well, right?? :-)
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