Posted on 07/26/2004 7:08:56 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 96.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 94.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 75.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 60.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 10.0 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 78.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 6.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 14.7 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 0.9 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 51.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 93.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 5.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 9.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 93.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 36.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 94.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 91.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 81.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 25.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 12.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 4.0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 35.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 25.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 57.2 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 93.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 51.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 41.0 | 0 | 4 |
| New Jersey | 13.5 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 40.0 | 0 | 5 |
| New York | 6.5 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 76.3 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 53.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 96.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 38.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 37.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 4.5 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 92.0 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 80.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 97.0 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 5.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 80.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 22.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 61.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 41.9 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 274 | 264 |
Not likely. 2000 was an odd occurrence. I doubt it will happen twice. Bush probably would had won the popular vote (and carried 3-4 more states) if the media hadn't called the entire election for Gore before voting ended in 4 of the 5 timezones. A lot of people simply didn't bother to vote after it was announced that Gore was going to win the election.
Politically speaking, the new restrictions will not being in new voters.
There is no one saying "I'm not voting for Bush because he isn't 'hard enough' on Cuba, but now I will because of these restrictions."
Kerry isn't going to win the popular vote.
He's not even going to come close to winning the popular vote.
For those of you with tradesports accounts (like myself), it looks like a great buying opportunity for Bush in the swing states after this week. After the convention, Kerry's numbers will probably reach their peak, which would equates to a great Bush buying opportunity.
As for the Nevada nuclear waste thing on 60 minutes last night..does anyone know Kerry's alternative to putting the waste in Yucca mountain. According to 60 minutes last night, Kerry would gut the project completely...(by the way, this story was presented in the most bias of ways). Bush should come back with, "Kerry doesn't want nuclear waste to be buried in a federal mountian in Nevada, he wants in to be stored in YOUR neigborhood (which is the essentially the status quo).
The IEM is far more accurate than the upstart tradesports.com, but IEM doesn't track states. They should put out a tracking future on Florida Ohio, and Pennsylvania, the truly important battleground states. Polling is so innacurate in states that something's needed. I've see polls in Florida over the past two months that would vary from Bush +9 to Kerry +5... at the same time! How can there be a 13 pt. difference? All polls are politically skewed, and that's why I like IEM.
I think that's because it only includes Democrats and Republicans, not Nader which eats into the Democrats. Republicans giving money to Nader is known in marketing as a flanking maneuver. Elections have gotten sophisticated. Using current marketing technology it's relatively easy to bring a lying Democrat candidate up to the 50% market share point however breaking through the 50% barrier against an active opponent is difficult.
THere's good news in these numbers. With all the time Kerry has recently spent in Ohio, Bush is still at $0.53. Florida is still Folrida, and we didn't win Pennsylvania last time either. However, there are some irregularities: what the hell's up with Michigan. We've got a 2 pt. lead in the polls, but Tradesports.com has us at only $0.35!
I think the protecting the Boy scouts would be an excellent feature for the RNC convention, particularly if they could do it on prime time. It is fosting leadership of the future, "progressive" even.
Listening to kerry durning some of his little blurbs, it seems the one of the DNC convention points is that Bush is toooooo religious. IOW this DNC convetnion will be the pushing for Kerry because his is not religious. (aka The Church of the No Controlling Legal Authority)
Didn't they also keep the Penn. poll open longer in the heavy democrat areas?
It would not surprise me to see such "targeted" polling place hour extensions to collect more democrat votes.
> If the traders' probabilities are correct, then the
> probability of a Bush win is 43.5% His expected value
> of electoral votes is 265.7 (with a standard deviation
> of 35.0).
How did you arrive at these numbers?
Yah, I agree. I also think tradesports and the Iowa futures market are probably the best indicators of where things will really end up---for better or worse.
Kerry is going to win Masshole, Rhode Island, Maine, Vermont, NY, New Jersey, Maryland, DC, Illinois, California, Connecticut, and Hawaii. All the other states listed for him are toss-ups that probably won't come down his way in the end barring a huge downturn in the economy or a huge blow-up in Iraq.
1988 redux. Bush 54, Kerry 46. Take it to the bank.
People started paying attention to politics. The stock market dropped a bit over the summer.
Well, I've been on record here for at least six months putting Bush down for 330 Electoral Votes.
THIS is no time for for NEVADA republicans to be sitting on their hands ,there are way to many dems in vegas, and the odds of the dems cheating are fifty fifty.
What I hear often from Bush supporters visiting the local Republican headquarters is their concern for lack of Bush Cheney visibility. In fact, with the exception of bc04 bumper stickers, we have NO visibility - at this point yard signs, and highway signs are non existent.
Since most people dont pay attention until after labor day (at the soonest) dont look for BC to get too excited until convention time when we begin to ramp up. The greatest danger in any campaign is to peak too early, and although the 96.8% wasnt planned it was an early peak that left us with nowhere to go but down.
It is my hope (and observation) that the toilets have peaked too early (with lots of external help)and without decent bumps (already blew the VP bump) they are destined to be flushed.
This is true in many places, but you are dead right!
Go Dutch REformed!
is there a heavy boyscouts population in PA and WI? I had not thought of that angle....but it is a good one.
Surely Karl Rove knows this....
Using the traders' probabilities, I ran Monte Carlo simulations of the election (over one million runs). Bush won 43.5% of these mock elections.
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