Posted on 07/26/2004 5:24:08 AM PDT by kjfpolitical
TALLAHASSEE · Robust, early leads by the Democratic and Republican front-runners in the race to become the next U.S. senator from Florida have narrowed sharply, according to a new statewide poll that shows the 12-candidate race has tightened into a five-person sprint.
With television advertisements for the race beginning to hit the airwaves, the survey of likely voters conducted for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and the Florida Times-Union newspapers puts Betty Castor ahead of Peter Deutsch among Democrats, and Bill McCollum over Mel Martinez and Doug Gallagher at the top of the eight-candidate Republican field.
After months of quiet preparations and slow-motion campaigning by the leaders in one of the nation's most hotly contested political fights, Castor's 18-point advantage over Deutsch in February has dwindled to a 13-point lead. More dramatically, on the Republican side, McCollum's 22-point lead over Martinez almost five months ago has plunged to a 6-point edge heading into the Aug. 31 primary.
Still, the contest to select a replacement for retiring Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Graham still hasn't caught fire with thousands of Floridians.
The poll of 600 likely voters shows that an overwhelming percentage of the electorate -- a fourth of the Republican vote and a fifth of the Democrats -- are still undecided about the candidates.
"This race is wide open and a great one to watch," said Del Ali, president of Maryland-based Research 2000, which conducted the survey. "The only certainty is that no one has closed the deal."
It's a contest that is overshadowed by the campaign for the White House, according to many of the Floridians who were polled.
William Kline, 60, a retired Coral Gables Democrat who has lived in Florida since 1999, said that while he's likely to vote in the race, he probably won't make up his mind until the final days. He said he "barely recognizes any of the names" of the candidates and has "seen virtually nothing" about them.
"It's all the presidential stuff, so I think I'm like a lot of folks; I got a lot of work to do getting to know what these [candidates] are all about," Kline said.
The telephone poll was conducted July 15 through July 19. The margin of error is no more than plus or minus 5 percentage points.
The Republicans
The two campaign front-runners on the Republican side hailed the survey as evidence that they'll win.
A McCollum spokeswoman said it shows her candidate is in the lead, and, now that he's running ads in the state's major media markets, will expand his advantage. A Martinez spokeswoman noted that, without having run ads yet, her candidate is within reach of McCollum, who ran unopposed in 2000 for the seat held by Sen. Bill Nelson, a Democrat.
The findings suggest potential problems for McCollum, a former Central Florida congressman best known for his involvement in the impeachment trials of former President Bill Clinton.
"There's no spin their [McCollum] campaign can give to say that things are going good," Ali said, noting that both Martinez and Gallagher have advanced steadily. In addition, the poll shows that one-fourth of GOP voters polled said they had an "unfavorable" opinion of McCollum, the highest unfavorable rating among the Republicans.
There's nothing in the poll for the McCollum campaign to fear, spokeswoman Shannon Gravitte said. "Bill McCollum is leading," she said. "He is very well positioned as we head into the final stretch."
The poll also shows a tough uphill battle for other candidates on the ballot. Five other Republicans are capturing only single-digit support despite months of campaigning. House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, for instance, enjoys just 7 percent support; lawyer Larry Klayman takes 2 percent; while Karen Saull and Sonya March register 1 percent support; and candidate William Kogut shows no recognizable backing among those polled.
The Democrats
On the Democratic side, the poll shows that Castor, a former state education commissioner from Tampa who has been on the statewide ballot twice before, leads with 38 percent support. Deutsch, a U.S. representative and former state legislator from Broward County, gets the bulk of his support in South Florida and is favored by 25 percent of the likely Democratic voters statewide.
The poll shows troubles for Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas, who has the support 16 percent of those polled -- a 3-percentage-point drop since February.
A fourth Democratic candidate in the race, Bernard Klein of Broward County, received no noticeable support.
Penelas' best hope for a victory is to win over the thousands of undecided Floridians. "The race is just beginning for many, many people out there still thinking this one over," said Danae Jones, Penelas' spokeswoman.
Aides to Castor responded to the poll numbers by pointing out that they enjoy backing statewide, downplaying Deutsch's 9-point lead over Castor in South Florida, where the largest percentage of Democrats reside and where Democratic primaries are typically settled.
"Betty Castor has a double-digit lead, and we out-raised [financially] both Penelas and Deutsch in the last quarter," said Matt Burgess. "We're very pleased."
Deutsch adviser Roy Teicher said the results are especially encouraging, showing that he has momentum going into the final phase of the race. Deutsch maintains an almost 2-to-1 advantage over Castor in available campaign funds to spend between now and the Aug. 31 primary. Recent campaign finance reports show that Deutsch has $4.1 million cash on hand, compared with Castor's $2.2 million and Penelas' $1.4 million.
Primary strategies
In hopes of still remaining competitive in the Democratic field, Penelas, the Miami-Dade mayor, has in recent days been describing himself on the campaign trail as an "anti-war" candidate who thinks all the U.S. troops should be withdrawn from the war in Iraq. That position is not shared by Democratic presidential contender Sen. John Kerry or other Democrats in the U.S. Senate race.
Ali calls it a "gutsy" strategy for Penelas, noting that while issues about Iraq register among voters as top concerns this election year, most Floridians don't agree with Penelas that substantial troops should be withdrawn.
Deutsch and Castor have focused most recently on the issue of health care availability to the poor and working-class Floridians, an issue that the poll finds resonates as high among concerns, particularly Democrats. The issue also ranks, with all voters, as one of the top four issues of concern this election season.
Poll respondents listed the war on terrorism third highest on the list of their concerns, with issues involving the economy and jobs as the No. 1 priority.
(Excerpt) Read more at sun-sentinel.com ...
This is funny -- just yesterday in Florida Today (LIEberal paper from Melbourne area - they had McCullom ahead!!!
This article is chock full of this garden variety subterfuge. The guy is still leading by 13 points, but it's presented as if he's on the ropes.
Go figure.
The polls are crazy. Remember that this is the same liberal media that could not predict Bush's win on election day even with exit polls.
However, Martinez is the man. Martinez is the only Republican who has a chance of beating the Democrat. McCollum is certainly not going to pull it off with a pro-abortion stance, and Byrd can't do it because he has neither the name recognition nor the support base.
My biggest fear is that Byrd will draw off enough votes from Martinez to put McCollum on the ballot. That would be a disaster.
If someone doesn't get 50%, isn't there a runoff?
I know it was that way in 2000.
Was the new poll primarilly in South (hispanic) Florida?
The guy (Castor) is a gal. A dippy, dumpy old ditz.
Good question. But that might be an even bigger disaster.
Ummm...this poll has McCullom up b7 6.
They best move outta the way as ol' Lar is reving up the campaign for a fast surge to the finish line....... lol.
If someone doesn't get 50%, isn't there a runoff?
Thanks a lot, McCollum! Thanks for Senator Nelson, now you're trying to give us Castor!
I give up:
How can an election be both "quiet... slow-motion" and "hotly contested?"
Try and live up to your handle. Mccollum is not pro abortion,his stem cell research position may be wrong but not pro abortion. This is a very difficult issue for people and I believe that his stance means he is running statewide now like he would if he already won the primary. Martinez is a trial lawyer who is not for tort reform,and he was the former President of the trial lawyers assn. He also gave money to lots of rats like Biden and Graham. Mccollum was a JAG in the military,and was an impeachment manager. HE is the best candidate by far,and he is up and informed on all the issues. He is conservative to the core,but you cannot win statewide in Florida if you are stridently anti-abortion and anti gay. Jeb Bush is a good example,when he had Tom Feeney as a running mate he lost,when he had Frank Brogan as a running mate he won both times. All of us are very pro-life but they do not make it a strident one issue for them. We are pragmatic knowing that the more women that are pregnant learn about their babies in-utero the more pro-life they will be.
Indeed. McCollum has already cost us by losing Connie Mack's seat to Nelson. IMO, with Martinez on the ballot, Hispanics deliver Florida & 27 electoral votes to Bush.
You know, when you defend McCollum's stances by saying he's doing an unpricipled pander to pro-choice moderates, that doesn't make him look good, it makes him look weak and, well, unprincipled.
Blame Connie Mack for Senator Nelson,he could have walked away with the Seat in 2000 without much campaigning, then resigned for health reasons and Jeb would have appointed the pubbie, but he did not. Nelson was not known as a particularly leftist liberal type as a congressman or as Florida Insurance Commissioner,now he has a seriously leftist vote record in the Senate,and he will not be re-elected. He also has statewide recognition and was well liked(past tense). Mccollum was not known statewide,and ran a poor, underfunded campaign. Martinez will lose as many or more conservatives in Dade/Broward than he picks up because of the irrational hatred of cubans in particular,but latins in general. I hope Deutsch wins his primary because he does not play well in the panhandle or anywhere else because he is a mean,nasty creep,and any of the pubbies could beat him except the two women and Klayman.
What is funny. He has the lead.
I know both McCollum and Martinez personally, so I have a pretty good idea what they stand for. McCollum used to be my Congressman. As a lawyer in Orlando, I used to deal with Martinez on the opposite side. Martinez was a good lawyer, and he has for the last 8 years or so been an effective governmental servant.
No matter what you think of their positions on the issues, there is one thing that ought to be clear: The Republican candidate is going to have an uphill climb against the Dem candidate. McCollum has a good base here in Orlando, but it's Miami that will decide who wins. Martinez also has a good base in Orlando, but he has a good base in Miami as well. Every South Florida Hispanic voter who votes for Martinez is another Hispanic voter who will not be voting for Castor. Also, Martinez will put votes in Bush's column for the same reason. The more conservative Cubans who show up to vote in November, the higher Bush's tally will be.
I've always liked MCCullom--but I wonder if this state needs the boost that Marinez would give the Republican ticket in November.
We can't afford to lose Florida.
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