First Contact Within 20 Years: Shostak

Space Daily ^ | Mountain View CA (SPX) Jul 22, 2004

[ckilmer]

EXO WORLDS

First Contact Within 20 Years: Shostak

Will the 20s see ET roar onto center stage Mountain View CA (SPX) Jul 22, 2004 If Intelligent life exists elsewhere in our galaxy, advances in computer processing power and radio telescope technology will ensure we detect their transmissions within two decades. That's the bold prediction from a leading light at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute in Mountain View, California. Seth Shostak, the SETI Institute's senior astronomer, based his prediction on accepted assumptions about the likelihood of alien civilisations existing, combined with projected increases in computing power.

Shostak, whose calculations will be published in a forthcoming edition of the space science journal Acta Astronautica, first estimated the number of alien civilisations in our galaxy that might currently be broadcasting radio signals.

For this he used a formula created in 1961 by astronomer Frank Drake which factors in aspects such the number of stars with planets, how many of those planets might be expected to have life, and so on. Shostak came up with an estimate of between 10,000 and 1 million radio transmitters in the galaxy.

To find them will involve observing and inspecting radio emissions from most of the galaxy's 100 billion stars. The time necessary for this formidable task can be estimated from the capabilities of planned radio telescopes- such as SETI's 1-hectare Allen Telescope Array and the internationally run Square Kilometre Array- and expected increases in the power of the microchips that sift through radio signals from space.

Shostak assumed that computer processing power will continue to double every 18 months until 2015- as it has done for the past 40 years. From then on, he assumes a more conservative doubling time of 36 months as transistors get too small to scale down as easily as they have till now.

Within a generation, radio emissions from enough stars will be observed and analysed to find the first alien civilisation, Shostak estimates. But because they will probably be between 200 and 1000 light years away, sending a radio message back will take centuries.

Paul Shuch, executive director of the SETI League, a separate organisation in New Jersey, says Shostak's prediction ignores one important factor. "It is altogether reasonable to project the development of human technology, based upon past trends and planned investments," he says.

"But predicting the date, the decade or even the century of contact is another matter because the 'other end' of the communications link is completely out of our hands. It would be nice to think we know something about the existence, distribution, technology and motivation of our potential communications partners in space, but in fact, we don't."

Shostak admits that there are myriad uncertainties surrounding his prediction, but he defends the basis on which he made it. "I have made this prediction using the assumptions adopted by the SETI research community itself."

[TomServo]

No need to thank me - I bow before your greatness. ;-)

[boris]

I read Rare Earth and no longer believe we have (many) intelligent companions in this galaxy.

My WAG is that the number of intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way is >1 and <<100; therefore we are effectively alone.

--Boris

[KevinDavis]

There can't be life forms elsewhere, there was no mention of alien in the bible!!! </sarcasm>

[RadioAstronomer]

All I know is we have only one data point and that is us. All else is speculation, including "Rare Earth".

[RadioAstronomer]

LOL! :-)

[Waco]

No, all wrong. First contact will not occur until 1947, sometime around July. Scoop! Scoop!

[TomServo]

My wife and I have just started building a new house with some actual land with few houses and even less lighting around, and I'm looking into building my own telescope. I need a new hobby. Used to have one as a kid when my Dad worked in the space program. I need to get back into it, again...

[Brett66]

Do you mean intelligent civilizations currently in existence or have existed at some point in time?

[Fedora]

"Everyone knows first contact doesn't occur until 2063..."

Unless you count Superman arriving in 1938 and Cornelius and Zira time-travelling backwards to 1971.

[RightWhale]

What would be the point of making such a prediction?

[Quix]

Johny come very lately, imho.

Already happened.

[Southack]

"From all indications, tests, and theories, gravity waves travel at exactly the speed of light."

No, I'd have to disagree with that claim. For theories, Newton says Gravity is almost infinitely fast; Einstein says that Gravity is at the speed of light. While both men are credible, they clearly disagree. Thus, "all" credible theories don't have Gravity at the speed of Light.

As for indications, a simple look at the flat, in-line orbits of all of our planets around our Sun indicates that either our solar system is *not* spinning through space as the Milky Way rotates, *or* that gravity is faster than light. Why?! Because we "see" the Sun from Earth not where the Sun/Earth are currently, but from where the Sun/Earth were located 8.3 minutes ago (takes Light that long to make the trip)...however, we orbit in line with where the Sun is located *now*, as does each of the planets...

That's only possible under two conditions (our solar system isn't moving - or - Gravity is much, much faster than Light).

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[boris]

"Do you mean intelligent civilizations currently in existence or have existed at some point in time?"

Either way.

I guess I mean 'contemporaries'--but Sagan demonstrated that we are "the new kids on the block"...and The Constants of Nature makes a persuasive argument that we find ourselves in this epoch because previous epochs were not hospitable to [[our sort]] of life...

--Boris

[Drammach]

I had passed the 750 units mark just recently..

Last week I downloaded the new processor, the BOINC system..
Everything is automated now, contacts, uploads, downloads, smaller packet sizes, (for faster downloads) new "3D" screensaver, automatic software updates, etc...

The new system will keep records in a somewhat different manner, but will be able to process different types of information, and do additional "work", not just process signals.

Check out BOINC at the Seti@home website..

[Brett66]

Here's some more speculation FWIW.

I think the Europa-type of planet could be the best chance at harboring life because the protective ice shell will keep life safe from a number of cosmic hazards as well as create a large orbital range for life-supporting status. Even an eccentric orbit for such a planet could still support life which gives the potential of such a planet for having a large habitable zone around it's parent star(s). So a reasonably intelligent species of water dwellers could develop a civilization under such a blanket of ice and we would never hear radio transmissions from them and we wouldn't see any signs of life on such a planet with even our most powerful telescopes.

[boris]

"No, I'd have to disagree with that claim. For theories, Newton says Gravity is almost infinitely fast; Einstein says that Gravity is at the speed of light. While both men are credible, they clearly disagree. Thus, "all" credible theories don't have Gravity at the speed of Light."

Your argument made sense in 1905, when Eddington--lacking GR--"proved" that gravity travels at infinite speed. A few nutcases--principally the infamous Tom VanFlandern--have continued to make this (false) argument.

I looked into these claims in detail, and corresponded with Dr. Carlip at U.C. Davis, who has convincingly demonstrated that General Relativity renders "gravity travels at infinite speed" null and void.

--Boris

[RightWhale]

Yes, that is a powerful argument explaining the paradox.

[Southack]

"I looked into these claims in detail, and corresponded with Dr. Carlip at U.C. Davis, who has convincingly demonstrated that General Relativity renders "gravity travels at infinite speed" null and void."

And that's fine, he may even be correct...making my point moot.

However, GR had to be modified, first by Einstein himself with SR. So it isn't out of the question that GR fails the test of time. It could be wrong. It's already required modification.

Also, neither GR nor SR explain the flat plane of the orbits of all of our planets around our Sun.

Two things can explain those flat, in-line orbits: our solar system sits perfectly still in space relative to its position 5 minutes ago - OR - Gravity is substantially faster than Light.

If the latter, then Newton wins. If the former, then Einstein wins (presuming that the rest of GR and SR hold up).

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[GeronL]

That means I MIGHT live to see it. I am tearing up.

[Southack]

Mmmm... the vanilla rum and cokes may be impacting. Didn't SR come before GR?!

Arrrgh!

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