First Contact Within 20 Years: Shostak

Space Daily ^ | Mountain View CA (SPX) Jul 22, 2004

[TomServo]

No need to thank me - I bow before your greatness. ;-)

[boris]

I read Rare Earth and no longer believe we have (many) intelligent companions in this galaxy.

My WAG is that the number of intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way is >1 and <<100; therefore we are effectively alone.

--Boris

[KevinDavis]

There can't be life forms elsewhere, there was no mention of alien in the bible!!! </sarcasm>

[RadioAstronomer]

All I know is we have only one data point and that is us. All else is speculation, including "Rare Earth".

[RadioAstronomer]

LOL! :-)

[Waco]

No, all wrong. First contact will not occur until 1947, sometime around July. Scoop! Scoop!

[TomServo]

My wife and I have just started building a new house with some actual land with few houses and even less lighting around, and I'm looking into building my own telescope. I need a new hobby. Used to have one as a kid when my Dad worked in the space program. I need to get back into it, again...

[Brett66]

Do you mean intelligent civilizations currently in existence or have existed at some point in time?

[Fedora]

"Everyone knows first contact doesn't occur until 2063..."

Unless you count Superman arriving in 1938 and Cornelius and Zira time-travelling backwards to 1971.

[RightWhale]

What would be the point of making such a prediction?

[Quix]

Johny come very lately, imho.

Already happened.

[Southack]

"From all indications, tests, and theories, gravity waves travel at exactly the speed of light."

No, I'd have to disagree with that claim. For theories, Newton says Gravity is almost infinitely fast; Einstein says that Gravity is at the speed of light. While both men are credible, they clearly disagree. Thus, "all" credible theories don't have Gravity at the speed of Light.

As for indications, a simple look at the flat, in-line orbits of all of our planets around our Sun indicates that either our solar system is *not* spinning through space as the Milky Way rotates, *or* that gravity is faster than light. Why?! Because we "see" the Sun from Earth not where the Sun/Earth are currently, but from where the Sun/Earth were located 8.3 minutes ago (takes Light that long to make the trip)...however, we orbit in line with where the Sun is located *now*, as does each of the planets...

That's only possible under two conditions (our solar system isn't moving - or - Gravity is much, much faster than Light).

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[boris]

"Do you mean intelligent civilizations currently in existence or have existed at some point in time?"

Either way.

I guess I mean 'contemporaries'--but Sagan demonstrated that we are "the new kids on the block"...and The Constants of Nature makes a persuasive argument that we find ourselves in this epoch because previous epochs were not hospitable to [[our sort]] of life...

--Boris

[Drammach]

I had passed the 750 units mark just recently..

Last week I downloaded the new processor, the BOINC system..
Everything is automated now, contacts, uploads, downloads, smaller packet sizes, (for faster downloads) new "3D" screensaver, automatic software updates, etc...

The new system will keep records in a somewhat different manner, but will be able to process different types of information, and do additional "work", not just process signals.

Check out BOINC at the Seti@home website..

[Brett66]

Here's some more speculation FWIW.

I think the Europa-type of planet could be the best chance at harboring life because the protective ice shell will keep life safe from a number of cosmic hazards as well as create a large orbital range for life-supporting status. Even an eccentric orbit for such a planet could still support life which gives the potential of such a planet for having a large habitable zone around it's parent star(s). So a reasonably intelligent species of water dwellers could develop a civilization under such a blanket of ice and we would never hear radio transmissions from them and we wouldn't see any signs of life on such a planet with even our most powerful telescopes.

[boris]

"No, I'd have to disagree with that claim. For theories, Newton says Gravity is almost infinitely fast; Einstein says that Gravity is at the speed of light. While both men are credible, they clearly disagree. Thus, "all" credible theories don't have Gravity at the speed of Light."

Your argument made sense in 1905, when Eddington--lacking GR--"proved" that gravity travels at infinite speed. A few nutcases--principally the infamous Tom VanFlandern--have continued to make this (false) argument.

I looked into these claims in detail, and corresponded with Dr. Carlip at U.C. Davis, who has convincingly demonstrated that General Relativity renders "gravity travels at infinite speed" null and void.

--Boris

[RightWhale]

Yes, that is a powerful argument explaining the paradox.

[Southack]

"I looked into these claims in detail, and corresponded with Dr. Carlip at U.C. Davis, who has convincingly demonstrated that General Relativity renders "gravity travels at infinite speed" null and void."

And that's fine, he may even be correct...making my point moot.

However, GR had to be modified, first by Einstein himself with SR. So it isn't out of the question that GR fails the test of time. It could be wrong. It's already required modification.

Also, neither GR nor SR explain the flat plane of the orbits of all of our planets around our Sun.

Two things can explain those flat, in-line orbits: our solar system sits perfectly still in space relative to its position 5 minutes ago - OR - Gravity is substantially faster than Light.

If the latter, then Newton wins. If the former, then Einstein wins (presuming that the rest of GR and SR hold up).

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[GeronL]

That means I MIGHT live to see it. I am tearing up.

[Southack]

Mmmm... the vanilla rum and cokes may be impacting. Didn't SR come before GR?!

Arrrgh!

5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires