Posted on 07/22/2004 8:54:14 PM PDT by VaBthang4
1. The article appeared in Zhongguo Haiyang Bao, run by the State Oceanography Bureau, and was entitled “The Chinese Navy and Aircraft Carriers.” See “‘Extremely Necessary’ for Chinese Navy to Have Aircraft Carrier,” BBC Monitoring Service: Asia-Pacific, 17 March 1997.
2. Shang Guanji, Zhongguo Wuqi Paosi (Taipei: Dongga Chubanshe, 1987), p. 156.
3. Shen Lijiang, “The Mysterious Course of the Pilot Warship Captains,” Jianchuan Zhishi, no. 7 (1989), p. 6.
4. Ibid.
5. “Secret Training for Carrier Officers,” (Hong Kong) South China Morning Post [hereafter SCMP], 13 February 1993.
6. Jianchuan Zhishi, no. 5 (1987), p. 19.
7. “Ukraine Denies Talks on Carrier,” SCMP, 1 February 1993.
8. “Beijing Seeks to Buy Russian Aircraft Carrier,” SCMP, 4 February 1993.
9. “Spain Offers Carrier Designs to Chinese,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, 18 February 1995.
10. Private discussion with a Bazan official, February 2002.
11. “No-Cash Carrier,” Far Eastern Economic Review, 10 October 1996.
12. “China Opts for Copter Carrier,” Far Eastern Economic Review, 13 November 1997.
13. “Beijing Okays Building of Two Aircraft Carriers,” Straits Times, 27 August 1999.
14. “China’s First Aircraft Carrier Ready for Service in 2005: Report,” Agence France Presse, 12 January 2000.
15. “Mainland Firm Buys Aircraft Carrier,” SCMP, 3 September 1998.
16. Ibid.
17. “Ex-Soviet Ship Now a Park in China,” Straits Times, 9 May 2000.
18. See “Kiev Sale to China ‘Will Not Tilt Power Balance,’” Straits Times, 10 May 2000, and “Aircraft Carrier Acquired for Scrap,” SCMP, 30 August 2000.
19. The developer’s official website can be seen at kiev-a-c-com/.
20. “No Connection to Naval Ship, Says Embassy,” SCMP, 4 April 1998.
21. On 20 December 1999, sovereignty of Macau was transferred from Portugal to China. Like Hong Kong, Macau is now a “special administrative region” of the PRC.
22. “$1.6b Hotel Plan for Warship,” SCMP, 11 November 1998.
23. “Macau Says Waters Too Shallow for Ex-Soviet Carrier,” Turkish Daily News, 12 January 2001, Internet version [accessed 10 March 2002].
24. “No Connection to Naval Ship, Says Embassy.”
25. “Beijing Calms Waters for ‘Floating Casino,’” SCMP, 9 September 2001.
26. Ibid.
27. In addition, under the 1936 Montreux Treaty (Amended) aircraft carriers require permission from the Turkish government to transit through the Bosporus.
28. “China Pays $45m for Carrier Hull,” Straits Times, 6 March 2002.
29. “Mystery of ‘Casino’ Ship Deepens,” SCMP, 24 February 2002.
30. “Security for ‘Casino’ Carrier Fuels Speculation of Navy Use,” Sunday Morning Post, 12 May 2002.
31. For a fuller examination of these issues see You Ji, The PLA’s Blue Water Illusion: Legacies, Models and Reality, CAPS Papers 32 (Taipei: Council of Advanced Policy Studies, December 2001).
32. Yan Youqiang, Zhang Dexin, and Lei Huajian, “Haishang zhanyi de fazhan qishi jiqi duiwojun zhanyi de yingxiang” [The impact on the PLAN campaigns of the developmental trend of the maritime campaigns], in Selected Papers of the PLA’s First Conference on the Campaign Theory: Tongxiang shengli de tansou [Exploring the ways to victory], ed. The Editor Group (Beijing: PLA Publishing House, 1987), pp. 993–95.
33. Wu Haibo and Zhang Boshuo, “Haijun zhiliang jianshe zhi wojian” [Our view on the navy’s quality modernization], Journal of the PLA National Defence University, no. 7 (2000), p. 56.
34. David M. Finkelstein, “Chinese Perceptions of the Costs of a Conflict,” in The Costs of Conflict: The Impact on China of a Future War, ed. Andrew Scobell (Carlisle, Penna.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2001), p. 13.
35. Li Jie and Liu Weixing, “Lun daoyu suolian de zhanlie diwei jiqi yingxiang” [The strategic status of the islands chains and their impact], Journal of the PLA National Defence University, no. 12 (2000), p. 24.
36. Shi Fei, Zhongguo Junli Da Qiushi [The general development trend of the Chinese military] (Chengdu: Sichuan Kexue Chubanshe, 1993), p. 17.
37. For a full account of the Mischief Reef Incident and its implications, see Ian Storey, “Creeping Assertiveness: China, the Philippines and the South China Sea Dispute,” Contemporary Southeast Asia 21, no. 1 (April 1999), pp. 95–118.
38. See Ian Storey, “Manila Looks to USA for Help in Spratlys,” Jane’s Intelligence Review 11, no. 8 (August 1999), pp. 46–50.
39. Bernice Lee, The Security Implications of the New Taiwan, Adelphi Paper 331 (London: Oxford Univ. Press for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1999), p. 10.
40. Michael Pillsbury, China Debates the Future Security Environment (Washington, D.C.: National Defense Univ. Press, 2000), p. 83.
41. The U.S. Navy clearly does not agree with this assessment, as plans are already well advanced on a new generation of aircraft carriers. As Loren B. Thompson has argued, in order to “kill” an aircraft carrier the enemy must first locate and target the fast-moving vessel, then penetrate its defenses with the aim of causing catastrophic damage—four extremely difficult goals to achieve. In addition, carriers can operate at great distances from enemy territory and destroy the enemy’s surveillance capabilities. According to Thompson, “barring a major tactical error or technological breakthrough, carriers are likely to remain very hard to successfully attack for many years to come.” See Loren B. Thompson, “What It Takes to Kill an Aircraft Carrier,” Defense Week, 11 June 2000.
42. Pillsbury, p. 293.
43. The PLAN operates four Kilo-class submarines and is currently in negotiations with Russia to purchase eight of the newer Project 636 Kilos. See “Chinese Plan Big Russian Arms Deal,” International Herald Tribune, 25 June 2002. In 1997 China ordered two Project 956E Sovremenny-class destroyers from Russia. It is widely believed that the decision to purchase these vessels was made after the dispatch of two U.S. aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait in March 1996. The two ships, Hangzhou and Fuzhou, were delivered in December 1999 and November 2000, respectively. In January 2002 China signed an agreement with Russia to purchase two more Sovremenny-class destroyers. See “China Buys Two More Project 956EM Ships,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, 8 January 2002.
44. Because of the condition of the Gorshkov (which had been badly damaged in a fire) and the high costs associated with refurbishing the vessel, final agreement on the transfer of the vessel was not reached until March 2003. See Ian Storey, “Russia Maintains Top Position in India,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, March 2003.
45. “India Agrees to $3 Billion Arms Deal with Russia,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11 October 2000.
46. “Internet Message Spurs Drive for Aircraft Carrier,” SCMP, 14 June 1999.
ping for later
China is only currently interested in local waters. They are not building a blue-water (i.e., global) Navy.
They are interested, though, in becoming an economic force to rival the USA and to continue to fully participate in the global economy. Expect to see an Asia NAFTA for example in the very near future.
Aircraft carriers are big targets. We have the ability to defend our. Would the Chineese be able to defend theirs from our stealth bombers or subs?
All due respect but...
There was a time...long ago, when FReepers actually read the articles before they made comments.
As the article indicates, it would seem highly unlikely as the Chinese have close to zero insight into the kind of advanced electronics required to defend such a ship from incoming attack.
The PLAN, however, only addresses going into regional waters. Again, China is only currently interested in local waters. They are not building a blue-water (i.e., global) Navy.
Aye. I made a recent trip to Vietnam, and many in their armed forces are scared s**tless over China and do not trust them any further than they can throw them. They anticipate China making attempts to coopt their territorial waters and "readjust" their mutual border.
Time for Vietnam to ally itself with the USA, I would say.
Frankly, that is the same thing that a couple of senior Vietnamese officers said. They have about 2,000 years of bad blood with China.
However, according to a representative of Bazan who spoke with the authors, the Chinese side seemed more interested in obtaining the blueprints of the carrier than in ordering the actual vessel.
Well nobody ever said they were stupid.
Sea control and sea denial are two important concepts that sustain the PLAN’s combat models. Admiral Liu set attaining sea control as the service’s most important priority soon after he became commander in chief. The PLAN proposes to exercise sea control within an inner line of defense that comprises China’s three offshore narrows: the Bohai Sea Strait, the Taiwan Strait, and the Qiongzhou Strait. Of these the Bohai is the most important, as it protects Beijing and northern China. The Taiwan Strait is also vital, because it allows the PLAN access to the western Pacific. Aside from these three straits, the South China Sea is an area of major concern for the navy.
Assume that PRC is going to go ahead with a blue-water navy. What would be the chances of Clark/Subic Bay reopening? It seems to me that if China starts to get a real navy the PI and other SEA countries would start sh*tting bricks.
Rockefeller and Trilateral Commission are pleased.
Eventually there will be a NAFTA for all 'connected' countries throughout the world. We don't have much choice.
Radical concept alert!!
China has been trying to take Viet Nam for millenia -- arguably one of the oldest blood feuds on the planet. Taking Viet Nam would require China to kill every last Vietnamese person. It is a very ancient animosity.
And it really is a special kind of hatred for the Chinese. The US managed to effectively do battle in that region, but when the Chinese tried to invade a weakened Viet Nam in '79, they got their asses handed to them. It is worth noting that the Viet Nam itself is the remnants of empire, a conglomeration of other conquered kingdoms. Most Vietnamese will tell you that their country would be much larger if the impenetrable mountains on their current borders hadn't made the logistics of maintaining a larger territory almost impossible i.e. they could conquer it but had great difficulty keeping it.
"Others claim that China has investigated the possibility of buying a light aircraft carrier from a European shipbuilder."
I suggest they buy one from France. ;)
I read an account of this war awhile back -- a Chinese official supposedly warned Jimmy Carter that they were going to "teach Vietnam a lesson they'd never forget" for attacking Cambodia, and to sit back and watch the fireworks.
They invaded, sustained 50% casualties in a few weeks time, declared victory, turned tail and fled.
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