Posted on 07/14/2004 12:40:03 PM PDT by truthandlife
North Carolinians generally like John Edwards more than John Kerry or President Bush. But that doesn't mean they're ready to reverse 28 years of supporting Republicans for president.
A new Gallup poll done for CNN and USA Today suggests that Edwards' addition to the Democratic ticket has done little to help Kerry's chances in the Tar Heel state.
"I still would not put North Carolina into the tossup category," said Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll. "North Carolina is still firmly a red (Republican) state."
Newport's pollsters interviewed 848 registered voters in North Carolina after Kerry's announcement about Edwards last week. Among likely voters (usually people who have voted in recent elections and shown an interest in the campaign), Bush held a 15 percentage point lead over Kerry, 54 percent to 39 percent.
That's a wider gap than in 2000, when North Carolina gave Bush a 13-percentage point win over Al Gore, Bush's second-largest margin of victory after Texas. It's also wider than polls done before Kerry picked Edwards.
"This new poll clearly shows that President Bush is in very good position to handle North Carolina in November," said U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, a Republican who won her seat two years ago with White House support.
But neither party seems to believe the president and Kerry will stay that far apart come November.
Kerry's selection of Edwards last week sparked a flurry of spending on TV ads: The Bush-Cheney campaign bought $191,000 worth of ad time on Charlotte's three network affiliates between this past weekend and July 23. Kerry's campaign bought almost $86,000 worth of airtime on the three affiliates between July 9 and July 13.
That's significant compared to four years ago, when President Bush spent roughly $150,000 on TV advertising in the entire state for the whole election season, according to the Wisconsin Advertising Project, which tracks political TV spending.
Kerry and Edwards drew almost 20,000 to a rally Saturday at N.C. State University. Today, Edwards begins his first solo swing for the ticket, ending Monday with another Raleigh visit.
North Carolinians do seem to like Edwards: In Gallup's poll, 63 percent of registered voters said they had a favorable opinion of Edwards, compared with 55 percent for Bush and 49 percent for Kerry. Fifty-eight percent said they believed Edwards "shared their values," and 65 percent said he "cares about people like me."
Thirty percent of likely voters said the selection of Edwards made them more likely to vote for Kerry.
That 30 percent may be good news for N.C. Democrats running for other offices on the November ballot. They don't need Kerry and Edwards to win here. They just need them to do better than Al Gore and Joe Lieberman did in 2000.
"Historically, if the president is at 56 percent or more, that's going to help the Republicans. If he's at 54 percent, it's a level playing field. If he's under that, the coattails move in the opposite direction and wind up helping us," said Insurance Commissioner Jim Long, a Democrat who is up for re-election this fall. "I think we're all assuming John Edwards gives us maybe 3 percent more in North Carolina. That will be enough to help (U.S. Senate candidate) Erskine Bowles and (Gov.) Mike Easley and every other Democrat up for election."
The presidential campaigns last paid serious attention to North Carolina in 1992, when the first President Bush beat Bill Clinton here by 20,000 out of 2.7 million votes cast.
South Carolina is not expected to get much attention from the presidential candidates this year, despite its status as Edwards' birthplace. Edwards won the S.C. Democratic presidential primary in February, but the state overall strongly favors Bush.
This year, both campaigns have reason to work hard in North Carolina. Edwards doesn't want to be embarrassed in the state where he lives, especially since some Democratic activists still resent that he gave up his U.S. Senate seat to run for president. The race to replace Edwards will be one of the most watched Senate campaigns in the country as Republicans try to build on their two-vote majority.
"It is personally important to me, and I am asking you to make it personally important to you: Let's elect Erskine Bowles to the United States Senate," Edwards told the crowd at last Saturday's rally.
At the same time that Edwards wants to help Democrats keep his seat, Bush is banking on winning Southern states. By choosing Edwards, Kerry forces the president to spend time and money on North Carolina. Every dollar spent here equals one that won't be spent in swing states such as Ohio and Florida.
"To the extent that they force Bush and Cheney to fight for North Carolina, it's a gain for Democrats in the overall electoral majority," said Ferrell Guillory, director of the UNC Chapel Hill Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public life.
Nice going, all you Tarheels! Keep up the good work!
South Carolina is not expected to get much attention from the presidential candidates this year, despite its status as Edwards' birthplace. Edwards won the S.C. Democratic presidential primary in February, but the state overall strongly favors Bush.Just one of the many reasons I moved here last summer.
I wonder what numbers Bush would pull in if he did an appearance at the RBC Center?
Ping Worthy; CD?
MKM
LOL! I am on it.
Actually having Edwards on every night will put the Republicans in charge in NC statewide.
If the dems thought this was a way to get NC on the ticket, ooops they did it again. Ten 2000 meet NC 2004......
Please Mr. President/ Mr. Vice President, don't waste your campaign mony trying to woo us North Carolineans-our vote belongs to you.
We Know John Edwards, we know the horse's .......face he rode in here on and we can't stand either.
Save your money for enlightening those in other states, and for nazal spray to open the nostrilsof those who haven't got a whiff of the BS being emitted from the Kerry Edwards corral.
Let Johnny Edwards campaign for Irksome Bowels to his hearts content...(trial lawyer + Clinton flunky)
Just let President Bush visit NC again in October and make a joint appearance with Richard Burr. We'll see who our next senator will be.
I think Gallup was way off. No way this is a 15pt race.
It bothers me that they don't list the sample size or what proportion of the polled voters are Democrats.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.