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Why al Qaeda is Fleeing Iraq
Strategy Page ^ | July 12, 2004

Posted on 07/12/2004 9:56:03 AM PDT by John Jorsett

Al Qaeda operations in Iraq have encountered unexpected problems. Iraqis have become increasingly hostile to the al Qaeda suicide bombing campaign. Religious leaders, which al Qaeda expects to get support from, have been openly denouncing these bombings. Iraqis, aware that they are more likely, than American soldiers, to be victims of these attacks, are providing more information on where the al Qaeda members are hiding out. Most of the al Qaeda in Iraq are foreigners, and easy for Iraqis to detect. As a result of this, many of the al Qaeda men have moved back to Fallujah, which has become a terrorist sanctuary. The interim government is trying to convince the tribal and religious leaders of Fallujah to back a military operation in the city to clear out the various al Qaeda, criminal and Baath Party gangs. But the gangs of Fallujah are quick to threaten any local leader that shows signs of supporting the government. While the Fallujah leadership is intimidated, many residents of Fallujah are not, and are providing information to the coalition, which has led to attacks, with smart bombs or coalition and Iraqi troops, on buildings used by al Qaeda, or other gangs, as headquarters.

Al Qaeda has found the atmosphere even more hostile elsewhere in Iraq, and many of the terrorists have returned home. This is especially true of those who came from Saudi Arabia (and other Gulf nations, particularly Yemen) and Syria. Few, if any, al Qaeda came from Iran, which is Shia Moslem. Al Qaeda is dominated by Sunni Moslems who are often violently anti-Shia. While the hundreds of returning al Qaeda veterans are still determined to achieve al Qaeda's goals of world domination, they are also more realistic. Fanaticism was not sufficient to chase the foreigners from Iraq, and the Arab media's sensational, and largely false, reporting of the impact of al Qaeda's attacks contributed to the disillusionment.

Saudi Arabia and Syria are seeing an increase in al Qaeda activity because of the return of these survivors of the Iraq operations. However, many of those Saudis and Syrians who went to Iraq, didn't come back. Casualties were heavy, and the guys who had more on the ball, and were luckier, made it back to carry out al Qaeda's plans in their home countries. Here, al Qaeda wants to establish Islamic republics, and drive out infidels (non-Moslems.) This is much harder to do in Syria, which has an experienced secret police and security organization which has crushed Islamic radicals in the past. Saudi Arabia has also put down Islamic radicals in the past, but has a much less oppressive police force than Syria. Saudi Arabia has always ruled more by cooperation than coercion, and al Qaeda is taking advantage of this trust to carry out many attacks. Very few al Qaeda attacks have taken place in Syria, although some are expected because of the returning terrorists, and their experience operating in the harsh environment of Iraq.

All the Persian Gulf nations are seeing an increase in al Qaeda activity, especially in Yemen. Here, in the homeland of the bin Laden family, al Qaeda has always been active. But the Yemen government had made deals with many of the pro-al Qaeda tribes to keep the violence down. Unfortunately, that "arrangement" allowed al Qaeda to establish sanctuaries for recuperation and training.

While the surviving al Qaeda members are pretty clueless about the futility of their operations, many Arabs, in particular, and Moslems in general, are. Even Moslem journalists are starting to point out that al Qaeda consistently losses, and tends to hurt Moslems more than infidels. Moslem media is still eager to push al Qaeda as heroes, but the illusion is wearing thin and time is working against the "holy warriors".


TOPICS: Editorial
KEYWORDS: alqaedairaq; iraq
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1 posted on 07/12/2004 9:56:06 AM PDT by John Jorsett
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To: John Jorsett

A lot of this sounds plausible, but I hope it's not wishful thinking. Is this a reliable source?


2 posted on 07/12/2004 9:59:37 AM PDT by Steve_Seattle
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To: John Jorsett

We are winning...


3 posted on 07/12/2004 10:00:01 AM PDT by chilepepper (The map is not the territory -- Alfred Korzybski)
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To: Steve_Seattle

It wouldn't surprise me if they are being herded into Fallujah. Get your enemies in one spot, then kill them.


4 posted on 07/12/2004 10:00:56 AM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news.)
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To: John Jorsett

AQ is losing Iraq.


5 posted on 07/12/2004 10:01:04 AM PDT by cripplecreek (you tell em i'm commin.... and hells commin with me.)
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To: John Jorsett
Who wrote this? I'm unfamiliar with the source.

"We're gonna hunt them down. We're gonna get 'em on the run. And one-by-one we will bring them to justice."

6 posted on 07/12/2004 10:01:18 AM PDT by GVnana
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To: LS

Yes.


7 posted on 07/12/2004 10:03:24 AM PDT by Judith Anne (Just another Bush-bot biddy drinking that Republican KoolAid.)
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To: John Jorsett
It's Bush's Fault!
8 posted on 07/12/2004 10:03:51 AM PDT by MJY1288 ("KERRY" & "EDWARDS" ARE TWO "JOHNS" THAT NEED FLUSHING!)
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To: John Jorsett

“We will not tire, we will not falter, we will not fail…..”

9 posted on 07/12/2004 10:04:31 AM PDT by AmericanMade1776
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To: cripplecreek

AQ is losing Iraq.

It's Bush's fault


10 posted on 07/12/2004 10:04:36 AM PDT by CzarNicky (The problem with bad ideas is that they seemed like good ideas at the time.)
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To: Steve_Seattle

seems like a summary of various news reports especially the washinton post story a week ago that talked about Saudi fighters returning home, Nytimes has a story about the infighting between foreign fighters and iraqi fighters.

The stuff about Falluja is not new, Iraqpress more than a month ago had articles on how the foreign fighters have basically taken over and making the rest of the natives unhappy.


11 posted on 07/12/2004 10:05:20 AM PDT by Pikamax
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To: John Jorsett
many of the al Qaeda men have moved back to Fallujah, which has become a terrorist sanctuary

Also where houses disintegrate without warning.

12 posted on 07/12/2004 10:05:21 AM PDT by Tom Bombadil
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To: John Jorsett

But I thought AQ wasn't in Iraq. </sarcasm>


13 posted on 07/12/2004 10:07:48 AM PDT by RockinRight
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To: John Jorsett

Well! Civilized people actually may be breaking out in Eye-Rack.


14 posted on 07/12/2004 10:07:54 AM PDT by RetiredArmy ( I am a Vietnam Vet. I have been accused of war crimes by the ADMITTED WAR CRIMINAL Kerry)
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To: John Jorsett

Tom Daschle is deeply saddened.


15 posted on 07/12/2004 10:07:59 AM PDT by Destructor
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To: Steve_Seattle
Is this a reliable source?

It's a web log, with all that implies in terms of possible bias, error, malintent, and stupidity. About the only way to answer the question is to read the site over a period of time and see if its assessments pan out. I've been reading SP for 6 months or so and it's been more right than wrong in my opinion. It's definitely not devoted to cheerleading for the Bush administration or the military, since bad gets posted as well as good.

16 posted on 07/12/2004 10:10:36 AM PDT by John Jorsett
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To: John Jorsett

When Bush/America/Allies turned the country back over to an Iraqi government, that new government could go where the Americans dare not.
The Iraqi government can pistol whip and even torture terrorists. The Americans could not be that brutal.

Bottom line is brutal is needed at this point and America can not be brutal on a grand scale as is needed.

This brutality is respected by terrorists and that area of the country and works.

Once faced with the brutality of the (take no shit) new government now in power, many of these insurgents have and others will flee Iraq.

The big question is:

WHERE ARE THEY FLEEING TO?


17 posted on 07/12/2004 10:10:42 AM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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"bring 'em on" = stroke of genius


18 posted on 07/12/2004 10:10:42 AM PDT by dwills
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To: John Jorsett

If the Iraqis themselves stand up to those who wish to oppress them, this will end rather quickly. This is their chance. It's now up to them.


19 posted on 07/12/2004 10:10:51 AM PDT by MEGoody (Kerry - isn't that a girl's name? (Conan O'Brian))
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To: GVgirl
Even Moslem journalists are starting to point out that al Qaeda consistently losses

Alqaida = loosers.

Whoever wrote this is either approaching high school graduation or writing computer games for a living.

20 posted on 07/12/2004 10:11:02 AM PDT by RightWhale (Withdraw from the 1967 UN Outer Space Treaty and establish property rights)
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