Posted on 07/12/2004 6:47:30 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
Thanks jdege!
I've been watching Ohio (20 electoral votes) pretty closely, subscribing to the wisdom that "He who wins Ohio, wins the White House."
The frightening trend that I see since 6/28 is that Florida (27 votes) has gone from 61.0% to 51.1%. Yikes!
We'll have to see if Dan Blather calls Florida for Kerry before the polls close in the panhandle, again.
keeps dropping
That chart at #4 shows a huge drop off in just a few months.
Bump
Say what you want, this doesn't look good for a sitting President who should be 10 points ahead, especially considering the weakness of his unlikeable opponent.
I'd take issue with 10 electoral votes (definitely) going to Kerry from Wisconsin. Latest polling... (republicandiva)
How are these factors in your graph arrived at? Is it based on the rather biased polling of most of the major news organizations? Is it public opinion, or the assessment of the speculators, both of which is effected by the same polling? ... (atomicpossum)
IMO this is the "poll" that matters more than any other than the election itself, because it DOES consider the public attitude by people (speculators) with the most to lose (at this moment in time) ..... money.
Much like the market, the day-to-day events are affecting opinions suddenly ..... so where is the big edwards bump? (or resulting bush "big" dip?)
After 60 minutes, 9-11 commission, abu ghraib, clinton book, edwards announcement, cia report ....
So, it's speculators interpreting the 'will of the people' as represented in polls? That sounds like one more layer of interpretation, which would seem to make it less accurate to me, not more.
California's 85 votes is why Arnold is a primetime speaker. I didn't vote for Arnold .. but he can be a help to those fence sitters in CA.
The situation in PA is not as favorable to Kerry as might be indicated by your rundown. Most of the state is Republican except for Philadelphia and Pittsburgh where there are heavy concentrations of black voters. But Bush has made major inroads with these constituents--and he is extremely popular throughout the state. If Kerry doesn't pull out a big black vote in Phila., then it's all over.
"California's 85 votes is why Arnold is a primetime speaker. I didn't vote for Arnold .. but he can be a help to those fence sitters in CA."
CA has "only" 55 votes. Bush has no chance in CA. Arnold won because the current gov., Grey Davis, was the worst in history, blowing the electrical crisis, blowing the big surplus by spending, and then offering driver's licenses to illegals. The other Dem who ran against him, Bustamonte, was an idiot who pandered to all the wrong groups. And then there was Arnolds fame and positive outlook. Also, Arnold is a primetime convention speaker because he is a centrist and his popularity, not to win CA votes.
CA democrats HATE Bush more than they hated Davis, and Bush has no chance in my CA, there are no "fence sitters".
That said, I still think Bush has a good shot, but in other Gore states like WI, PA, MN, and NM.
Sorry about the wrong number - yes, it is 55 not 85.
However, you said, "Bush has no chance in my CA".
Hmmmm? I seem to recall the media was saying, "a Republican cannot get elected in CA".
When I witnessed the outpouring for Ronald Reagan .. I realized there are a lot more "conservatives" in CA that perhaps people are aware of. If we can just get them out to vote .. I think Bush would have a good chance.
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