Religion Breakdown Gives Bush An Edge In Key Swing States

Investor's Business Daily ^ | Monday, July 12, 2004 | RAGHAVAN MAYUR

[Isara]

Much has been made about the role religion now plays in politics — how, for example, voters who attend church more regularly tend to favor Republicans, while those who go less often lean Democratic.

Less has been done to determine how religion might play out in the swing states and among independents. Will faith, for example, give Bush a much-needed boost down the stretch to keep the White House?

IBD/TIPP analysis reveals that in swing states and among the all-important independent voting bloc, Bush has an edge over the competition in large part due to his — and their — faith. Protestants are dominant in many of the highly contested battleground states, and they continue to support Bush and his policies.

Most Americans — 80% in last month's IBD/TIPP poll — say religion is an important part of their life. More than half (54%) said it is "very important."

Four in five see Bush as being religious, with 36% perceiving him as "very religious."

A smaller majority believes it's OK for a presidential candidate to talk about his or her religious beliefs in public. Eighteen percent say a candidate may talk about his beliefs often; 40% say occasionally.

While personal religiosity may not help a presidential candidate with the majority, it's a positive for a sizable segment of America. More than a third (38%) think it would make them like the person more vs. only 4% who think it would make them like a candidate less. But most (55%) say religiosity would make no difference.

Bush's Protestant Advantage

Generally speaking, more people (66%) see the majority of Republican politicians as being religious vs. 51% who see Democratic politicians in this way.

Bush's popularity with Protestants was instrumental in defeating Al Gore in 2000. According to a 2000 exit poll, 54% who showed up to vote were Protestants or belonged to other Christian denominations such as Lutheran, Episcopalian and Presbyterian. Just over one-fourth (26%) were Catholic. 4% were Jewish and 6% belonged to other religions. 9% didn't follow any religion.

Among Protestants, Bush beat Gore by 14 points (56% to 42%).

Gore won 50% to 47% among Catholics, 79% to 19% among Jews and 62% to 28% among members of other religions.

Our analysis of the 16 battleground states shows that Democrats outnumber Republicans in 14. The voter pool in the last presidential race in swing states was 39% Democrat, 35% Republican and 26% independent.

History has shown, however, that faith and political ideology have helped the GOP overcome this handicap.

The most important factor that worked in Bush's favor in 2000 was faith. He won in swing states where Protestants outnumbered others by large margins. Six with large Protestant margins — Tennessee (74% Protestant vs. 26% non-Protestant), West Virginia (73% vs. 28%), Arkansas (65% vs. 35%), Ohio (58% vs. 41%), Missouri (59% vs. 41%) and Florida (56% vs. 43%) — garnered Bush a total of 79 electoral votes.

The next most important factor for Bush was his conservative ideology. That helped him take Louisiana, Nevada and New Hampshire — another 17 votes.

Bush suffered losses in two states where non-Protestants outnumbered Protestants — New Mexico (57% to 44%) and Wisconsin (52% to 48%) — which total 16 votes.

The anomalies were Iowa and Minnesota, where Bush lost 17 electoral votes despite his faith and ideological advantages.

Bush also lost in Pennsylvania, where voters are more evenly balanced (50% Protestants and 50% non-Protestants), Michigan (54% to 47%) and Oregon (54% to 46%), accounting for 48 votes.

In sum, swing states can be divided into three levels of difficulty.

First, the easy targets — the Protestant-heavy, such as Tennessee, West Virginia and Arkansas.

Second, the unpredictable — Iowa and Minnesota.

And third, the hard battles — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Oregon, Wisconsin and New Mexico.

Catholics For Kerry

In June's IBD/TIPP poll, Bush led Kerry 52% to 35% among Protestants. Catholics gravitated toward Kerry (48% vs. 35%) while Jewish voters overwhelmingly supported the Democratic challenger (74% vs. 19%).

Protestants' strong support for Bush is also reflected in their support of the war in Iraq, his handling of the economy and his leadership credentials:

• Nearly two-thirds (62%) of Protestants support the war compared with 54% of all Americans. Only 46% of non-Protestants support the war.

• On the IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index, Bush scores 55.3 among Protestants, the highest among all faith groups. Catholics give him 40.9 while other religions give him a 41.9. Among Jews, Bush gets a lackluster 21.8.

• Protestants score higher (55.9) on the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index than Catholics (47.4), Jews (47.6) and other religious groups (40.6).

• More Protestants (64%) see Bush as a strong leader; only 35% feel the same way about Kerry. On the other hand, non-Protestants see Kerry in a slightly better light, 49% to 48%.

We also note that those who most frequently attend a place of worship are more likely to vote than their less religious counterparts.

Fifty percent of Protestants attend church at least once a week. This compares with a 42% rate of attendance among Catholics and 35% for other religions. One of eight (12%) Jewish voters attend synagogue at least weekly.

Nonbelievers = Nonvoters?

It may be that religious adherence helps motivate the fulfillment of civic obligations. In 2000, for instance, those who did not belong to any religion had the lowest voter turnout.

What about independents, another vital segment of the electorate? Most (56%) were non-Protestants and 44% are Protestants.

A near majority (46%) of independents say religion is a "very important" part of their life. Among this group, Bush leads Kerry by 18 points (43% to 25%). Kerry leads Bush 37% to 31% among the 28% of independents who consider religion to be "somewhat important" and 42% to 27% among the 25% of independents to whom religion is not important.

Among the 43% of independents who attend a place of worship at least weekly, Bush leads Kerry by 20 points (46% to 26%).

It is interesting to note that among those with no religion, only 17% identify themselves as Republicans and 30% identify themselves as Democrats. The rest (43%) are independents. It may be that those least satisfied with religion are also least satisfied with the nation's two dominant political parties.

Raghavan Mayur is president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner.

[Isara]

FYI

[Kuksool]

Any person of faith is crazy to vote for the John-Johns. If religious conservatives ever wish to prove their worth to the GOP, the media, and the world, then this election is it.

[OldFriend]

You don't have to be religious or attend church to be offended by kerry/edwards insistence that the performers on the stage at Radio City Music Hall represent the true values of America.

[curmudgeonII]

According to a 2000 exit poll, 54% who showed up to vote were Protestants or belonged to other Christian denominations such as Lutheran, Episcopalian and Presbyterian.

When did Lutherans, Episcopalians and Presbyterians stop being Protestants?

[Ciexyz]

Interesting statistics.

[Ciexyz]

According to a 2000 exit poll, 54% were Protestants or belonged to other Christian denominations such as Lutheran, Episcopalian and Presbyterian.

Huh? I always thought that I, as a Presbyterian, was considered a "Protestant".

[sinkspur]

Catholics are still supporting Kerry?

This is really pathetic, from my co-religionists. But, those I've run into who support him here do so because the Pope condemned the war (and they, erroneously, think Kerry was against the war, too, until I point out that he voted for it). The Pope did us no favors with his very vocal opposition to Iraq; it gives cover to those who know Kerry favors abortion.

And the Jews look to be a hopeless case. They've had no greater friend than Bush in his support for Israel, yet they can't shake off their historical patterns.

[Richard Kimball]

And the Jews look to be a hopeless case. They've had no greater friend than Bush in his support for Israel, yet they can't shake off their historical patterns.

I've been reading Herman Wouk's The Hope and the Glory". As a southwest guy who really doesn't understand northeastern demographics, it explained a lot to me. Many of the Jews who came to the US came after WWII, or to flee Soviet and European persecution. Although they were attacked relentlessly by the powers that be in those countries, many of them adopted the politics of their home countries. That is to say, they are socialist-marxists. Also, many of them are not religious Jews, but ethnic Jews. If you look at these facts, you end up with non-religious, socialist-marxist people, or classic modern Democrats.

Religious Jews still fear persecution from Christians, and believe that Christians will try to convert them. While Christians will definitely try to convert Jews (it's part of the great commission), southern Christians strongly support the state of Israel, because in the end-times, those who stand against Israel will be standing against Christ.

Also, most non-religious Jews are post-modernists, which in western culture means that they attack white Protestant culture. Jeffrey Katzenberg, for example, created Spirit, Stallion of the Cimarron, which was nothing other than a classic attack on the evil white man who destroyed the peaceful native Americans and was mean to his horses. The movie was about a $40 mil loss domestically, even though having produced Lion King, Shrek and Shrek2, Katz has shown he knows how to make a winner. The thing about Spirit was, it was his real politics. Most of the non-religious Jews do not realize that 98% of the world, especially the so-called multi-culturalists, would be thrilled to see the Arabs drive all of Israel back into the sea, because they think it would bring about the age of peace. The Moslems will never accept Israel, and the thinking of most of the world is that it's easier to get rid of 20 million Jews than 1 billion Arabs.

Jews were also galvanized to the Democrats because the Eisenhower Administration was far less friendly to Israel than the Kennedy Administration, and even though destroying the concentration camps was almost an accident, they loved Roosevelt for it.