AP: Iraq Insurgency Larger Than Thought

BAGHDAD, Iraq - The Iraq insurgency is far larger than the 5,000 guerrillas previously thought to be at its core, U.S. military officials say, and it's being led by well-armed Iraqi Sunnis angry at being pushed from power alongside Saddam Hussein.

Although U.S. military analysts disagree over the exact size, dozens of regional cells, often led by tribal sheiks and inspired by Sunni Muslim imams, can call upon part-time fighters to boost forces to as high as 20,000 — an estimate reflected in the insurgency's continued strength after U.S. forces killed as many as 4,000 in April alone.

And some insurgents are highly specialized — one Baghdad cell, for instance, has two leaders, one assassin, and two groups of bomb-makers.

The developing intelligence picture of the insurgency contrasts with the commonly stated view in the Bush administration that the fighting is fueled by foreign warriors intent on creating an Islamic state.

"We're not at the forefront of a jihadist war here," said a U.S. military official in Baghdad, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The official and others told The Associated Press the guerrillas have enough popular support among nationalist Iraqis angered by the presence of U.S. troops that they cannot be militarily defeated.

The military official, who has logged thousands of miles driving around Iraq to meet with insurgents or their representatives, said a skillful Iraqi government could co-opt some of the guerrillas and reconcile with the leaders instead of fighting them.

"I generally like a lot of these guys," he said. "We know who the key people are in all the different cities, and generally how they operate. The problem is getting actionable information so you can either attack them, arrest them or engage them."

Even as Iraqi leaders wrangle over the contentious issue of offering a broad amnesty to guerrilla fighters, the new Iraqi military and intelligence corps have begun gathering and sharing information on the insurgents with the U.S. military, providing a sharper picture of a complex insurgency.

"Nobody knows about Iraqis and all the subtleties in culture, appearance, religion and so forth better than Iraqis themselves," said U.S. Army Lt. Col. Daniel Baggio, a military spokesman at Multinational Corps headquarters in Baghdad. "We're very optimistic about the Iraqis' use of their own human intelligence to help root out these insurgents."

The intelligence boost has allowed American pilots to bomb suspected insurgent safe houses over the past two weeks, with Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi saying Iraqis supplied information for at least one of those airstrikes. But the better view of the insurgency also contradicts much of the popular wisdom about it.

Estimates of the insurgents' manpower tend to be too low. Last week, a former coalition official said 4,000 to 5,000 Baathists form the core of the insurgency, with other attacks committed by a couple hundred supporters of Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and hundreds of other foreign fighters.

Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the figure of 5,000 insurgents "was never more than a wag and is now clearly ridiculous."

"Part-timers are difficult to count, but almost all insurgent movements depend on cadres that are part-time and that can blend back into the population," he said.

U.S. military analysts disagree over the size of the insurgency, with estimates running as high as 20,000 fighters when part-timers are added.

Ahmed Hashim, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said the higher numbers squared with his findings in a study of the insurgency completed in Iraq.

One hint that the number is larger is the sheer volume of suspected insurgents — 22,000 — who have cycled through U.S.-run prisons. Most have been released. And in April alone, U.S. forces killed as many as 4,000 people, the military official said, including Sunni insurgents and Shiite militiamen fighting under the banner of a radical cleric.

There has been no letup in attacks. On Thursday, insurgents detonated a car bomb and then attacked a military headquarters in Samarra, a center of resistance 60 miles north of the capital, killing five U.S. soldiers and one Iraqi guardsman.

Guerrilla leaders come from various corners of Saddam's Baath Party, including lawyers' groups, prominent families and especially from his Military Bureau, an internal security arm used to purge enemies. They've formed dozens of cells.

U.S. military documents obtained by AP show a guerrilla band mounting attacks in Baghdad that consists of two leaders, four sub-leaders and 30 members, broken down by activity. There is a pair of financiers, two cells of car bomb-builders, an assassin, separate teams launching mortar and rocket attacks, and others handling roadside bombs and ambushes.

Most of the insurgents are fighting for a bigger role in a secular society, not a Taliban-like Islamic state, the military official said. Almost all the guerrillas are Iraqis, even those launching some of the devastating car bombings normally blamed on foreigners — usually al-Zarqawi.

The official said many car bombings bore the "tradecraft" of Saddam's former secret police and were aimed at intimidating Iraq's new security services.

Many in the U.S. intelligence community have been making similar points, but have encountered political opposition from the Bush administration, a State Department official in Washington said, also speaking on condition of anonymity.

Civilian analysts generally agreed, saying U.S. and Iraqi officials have long overemphasized the roles of foreign fighters and Muslim extremists.

Such positions support the Bush administration's view that the insurgency is linked to the war on terror. A closer examination paints most insurgents as secular Iraqis angry at the presence of U.S. and other foreign troops.

Many guerrillas are motivated by Islam in the same way religion motivates American soldiers, who also tend to pray more when they're at war, the U.S. military official said.

He said he met Tuesday with four tribal sheiks from Ramadi who "made very clear" that they had no desire for an Islamic state, even though mosques are used as insurgent sanctuaries and funding centers.

At the orders of Gen. John Abizaid, the U.S. commander of Mideast operations, Army analysts looked closely for evidence that Iraq's insurgency was adopting extreme Islamist goals, the official said. Analysts learned that ridding Iraq of U.S. troops was the motivator for most insurgents, not the formation of an Islamic state.

The officer said Iraq's insurgents have a big advantage over guerrillas elsewhere: plenty of arms, money, and training. Iraq's lack of a national identity card system — and guerrillas' refusal to plan attacks by easily intercepted telephone calls — makes them difficult to track.

"They have learned a great deal over the last year, and with far more continuity than the rotating U.S. forces and Iraqi security forces," Cordesman said of the guerrillas. "They have learned to react very quickly and in ways our sensors and standard tactics cannot easily deal with."

Well of course it's going to grow.

In the face of weakness, terrorists thrive.

We abandoned Fallujah to the Jihadists, we allowed and are still allowing al-Sadr to preach his message from Mosque to Mosque, even offering him a position of power in the new government.

There is no way to appease the Jihadist, yet we don't ever seem to learn that lesson.

"part-time fighters to boost forces to as high as 20,000 — an estimate reflected in the insurgency's continued strength after U.S. forces killed as many as 4,000 in April alone."

Ok, then deal them 5 Aprils.

I hate AP.

"Most of the insurgents are fighting for a bigger role in a secular society"

"Analysts learned that ridding Iraq of U.S. troops was the motivator for most insurgents, not the formation of an Islamic state.

Well, which is it? I suspect the former. If it was the latter, then we should expect to see the insurgency cut back significantly as the hand-over of power continues. But I expect that we're hearing the reason dejure and that the power struggle will continue.

BTW, at a 20% attrition rate in one month, 20,000 insurgents or even 40,000 won't last too long as an effective fighting force. Now that the Iraqi government has skin in the game and their own rules of engagement learned from Saddam's example, I'll bet we see the attrition rate go up.

Short run bad news, long run good. We've been hearing about how the inevitable outcome of our invasion is the creation of another Islamic state bent on our destruction, but that appears unlikely.

The point seems to be that the majority of the fighters may NOT be jihadists. This is not really something to be argued about. It is a fact or not. AP is reporting what military and other experts have concluded, right or wrong.

If it is true it is actually a reason for optimism, since these people can be brought into a representative government. Al Quaeda or other disruptive foreign elements could not be engaged. Their aim would be to cause death, destruction and chaos. I hope that native Iraqi insurgents can be satisfied with sharing government power. If they cannot be satisfied this way then the goal of establishing democracy in Iraq is doomed to failure. An elected government would forever be challenged by militias, and we would have to stay and defend it.

President Bush's re-election depends on the success of our endeavors in Iraq, and sooner rather than later. I hope this AP report is true, and that efforts to bring in the various insurgents into the election process are successful.

someone remind me of how the Army has given up their Viet Nam mentality. I think they keep trying to have a war with no casulties and thus end up with more.

Yesterday a news show had a convoy go past an empty car. After one humvee passes it exploded by the second in line. Blow up all standed cars and soon you won't see any on the side of the road. Clean out a town, kill the warriors that won't give up their arms. move to the next one. but that stategy is no longer possible in a country that is no on it's own. at least on paper.

Iraq Insurgency Larger Than Thought

And you can be too!

You can enlarge your manhood, and please your wife or girlfriend much more, by taking N-Large twice a day.

"I went from 4 inches to 6 1/2 inches in 2 months. Thanks N-Large!" - Abdul Mohammad, Tikrit, Iraq

Un-named sources and confidential 'experts' mean little to me. Because one 'secret anonymous' official believes "that they cannot be militarily defeated" does not make it so. Dozens of 'anonymous' sources claimed we would face losses in the thousands on the first day of an invasion, and that such a plan was impossible and doomed.

To any of those reading from the front lines - Hoorah, and Semper Fi
We will win in the end because democracy is the most truly ethical and moral form of government this world has ever know. (Respects to RR for the paraphrase.)

We have been sold a bill of goods. We have believed that our enemy is a leader ['a Hitler'] not a movement and 'decapitation' is the answer.

Bush has focused on individuals bin Laden, Saddam and Arafat as the cause of all problems. It is obvious now that finishing one or all three of these will not be the end.

We were able to deal with some leaders, Jordan, Saudi but their days seems to be numbered. Their successors want us out of Islam land and we want to stay. Sounds like trouble at the bend ahead.

"Too much U.S. analysis is fixated on terms like 'jihadist,' just as it almost mindlessly tries to tie everything to (Osama) bin Laden," Cordesman said. "Every public opinion poll in Iraq ... supports the nationalist character of what is happening."

I think both statements are false. The U.S. has NOT "mindlessly" tried to connect everything to Bin laden. And I have heard many Iraqis speak about foreigners as being the source of much of the violence.

The point seems to be that the majority of the fighters may NOT be jihadists

That's why we've hit Fallujah three times without much fuss-- Who do you think is turning in Zarqawi's associates?

We made a deal: leave us alone and tell us where the al-Queda types are and we'll leave you alone.

It doesn't surprise me that Sunnis are "fighting for their role in representative govt". If I were them I would be expecting a Shiite extermination campaign shortly after the end of US military presence. IMHO the ex-Saddam Sunnis are running a campaign of destabilization is an effort to keep from getting their throats slit. The longer they can convince Iraqis that US is the problem, the longer they stay alive.

"Bush has focused on individuals bin Laden, Saddam and Arafat as the cause of all problems. It is obvious now that finishing one or all three of these will not be the end. "

Bush did just the opposite, despite public pressure to do so. Bush made lots of mistakes, but that was NOT one of them.

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