Posted on 07/08/2004 7:46:43 AM PDT by quidnunc
Am I the only person in America who noticed that the chief strategist of the Bush-Cheney campaign, Matt Dowd, inadvertently predicted Bush's loss to John Kerry in his e-mail memo to party insiders on Tuesday?
In that memo — no doubt crafted to lower expectations — Dowd matter of factly predicts, based on his analysis of past Gallup surveys, that Bush may well be 15 points behind John Kerry at the beginning of August. No, I didn't make this up. Dowd's e-mail includes a link to the Bush-Cheney website that has a chart showing Bush losing to Kerry 55.5 percent to 40 percent at the beginning of August.
I learned as chief pollster for Senator Bob Dole's presidential campaign in 1996 that historical analyses and predictions are a double-edged sword — they often come back to bite you. Remember the pundits in '96 who said that based on historical voting trends, a GOP presidential candidate wouldn't lose either Arizona or Florida? Well, we lost both of those states, defying historical trends, and made more than our fair share of mistakes along the way. But we never inadvertently stated that our candidate was going to lose — despite what we knew.
-snip-
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
I didn't read the full artcle, nor the memo that prompted it, but common sense will tell you that wall to wall DNC convention coverage will give Kerry a bounce among the sheeple that the pollsters will be able to reach - it always does. Bush's convention won't be til later in August and then his numbers will rise. DUH.
??? Who's Mo?
We are witnessing a repeat of Bush '92.....Weeks of Dem attacks followed by mamby-pamby Rep response.
?? Uhhh, maybe you have the wrong Dowd? This is not a Maureen column.
Hey Fabrizio, Mike Dukakis was 19 points up on GHWB coming out of the Rat convention in '88.
You really do need to read at least part of the article before you comment.
The Dowd referred to is Matt Dowd, Dubya's chief pollster, not Maureen Dowd.
I really don't have time to go back and find the memo, but right before the 2002 midterm elections, a similar memo was issued saying that the party in office during midterms usually LOSES seats, and the WH had no reason to believe that things would be any different during those midterms.
I, personally, think these kind of statements by the Bush Administration have been used on several occasions to aid the Dems in their "misunderestimating."
Politics is a poker game, you never know who wins till it's over.
I sure hope we don't have an election at the beginning of August !
What's his projection for the end of September and October?
Yep, but, technically, Bush-41 was not an incumbent.
What I think Dowd is saying is that it could go that high, and if it does, fear not. Really, though, I don't believe it will.
I believe Kerry will edge up over 50% immediate following the convention and Bush will remain around 47%.
Then following the Republican convention, Bush will even it out. In November it will end up: Bush 50.5% -- with a little over 300 electoral votes -- and Kerry with about 48%, Nader will get just over 1% and the Libertarian/Constitional/etc will be under that.
But all Bush supporters should remember that Bush will not win if YOU do not vote for him.
I suspect Dowd anticipated the medias nauseating drolling, swooning, and 24-7 coverage of the dem partnership. Why, with the JFK theme going full force--- right up to the Caroline Kennedy dress alike kid --- the spinmasters are in full pounce.
I don't think Bush has to do anything .. the Kerry campaign will do it to themselves .. and the dems will end up 10-15 points behind Bush by the end of August .. and on into November!!
"I learned as chief pollster for Senator Bob Dole's presidential campaign in 1996......."
Oh, you were one of "them" huh? You know, the group that ensured Bill Clinton would win a second term, when he was in a very weak position in the spring of 96?
You and your candidate, Bob "Its My Turn, Damnit!" Dole gave us that second term, dumbass.
Now take your "please, please, somebody listen to me" schtick and return to the dustbin of history.
Thanks....
I took that email as a set up; if Kerry isn't up by 15 points after the DNC convention, he'll look like a loser, won't he?
"We are witnessing a repeat of Bush '92.....Weeks of Dem attacks followed by mamby-pamby Rep response."
I don't know what your reading today, but that hasn't been the case since 30 minutes after the Edwards annoucement joining Kerry on the ticket.
I'll also point out that the President has been running commercials for four months or so now, which undermines completely the comparision to the 92 race, which as Quayle accurately summarized as "The worst reelection campaign in Presidential history" or words to that effect.
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