Replies

Hey Fabrizio, Mike Dukakis was 19 points up on GHWB coming out of the Rat convention in '88.

7 posted on 07/08/2004 7:59:11 AM PDT by metesky ("Brethren, leave us go amongst them." Rev. Capt. Samuel Johnston Clayton - Ward Bond- The Searchers)

Yep, but, technically, Bush-41 was not an incumbent.

What I think Dowd is saying is that it could go that high, and if it does, fear not. Really, though, I don't believe it will.

I believe Kerry will edge up over 50% immediate following the convention and Bush will remain around 47%.

Then following the Republican convention, Bush will even it out. In November it will end up: Bush 50.5% -- with a little over 300 electoral votes -- and Kerry with about 48%, Nader will get just over 1% and the Libertarian/Constitional/etc will be under that.

But all Bush supporters should remember that Bush will not win if YOU do not vote for him.

15 posted on 07/08/2004 10:05:29 AM PDT by old3030 (Genius may have its limitations, but stupidity is not thus handicapped -- Elbert Hubbard)

The problem here is the Dukakis campiagn imploded. A series of mis steps that ended with the infamous helmet and tank images. If Dukakis ran a better campaign, it Bush 41 may not have even won in 88. GW Bush and company can not count on Kerry making the same mistakes.