BUSH VS. KERRY - IS IT REALLY THAT CLOSE?

InvestorsInsight ^ | July 6, 2004 | Gary D. Halbert

[zarf]

Correction: I think the media underestimates the effects of 9/11....in Bush's favor.

[Jet Jaguar]

Like I said before, I dug through foxnews.com on the the Beltway Boys personalities page and could not find a reference. I originally heard this on their program but was out of the room and didn't really get to watch it.

I am not sure of their methods to get to this number.

Perhaps we have a Freeper or lurker that can tell us the method the Beltway Boys come to their numbers.

[no dems]

EXCELLENT POST. Thanks.

[Jet Jaguar]

I have found two freepers that have interesting state by state electoral college breakdown that they post weekly.

Dales http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1163457/posts

Momaw Nadon http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1165622/posts

[1rudeboy]

bttt
But hearing about MI, OH, and PA give me the shivers.
All those precincts that report-in hours after the polls close. Ugh.

[potlatch]

Interesting thread ntnychik pinged me to.

[carl in alaska]

Bump for Bush's Electoral Victory! Kerry's strength is concentrated in relatively few heavily Democratic states in the Northeast and West Coast. Bush will win a comfortable electoral victory.

[Frank_2001]

IMO you're absolutely right!

[GVnana]

Loved the article until he got to the Clinton conspiracy thing. Best analysis of the polls I've seen. Saw Brit Hume tonight and the way the panel was acting you'd think it was all over for Bush, because of Edwards. Never saw Krauthammer so hang dog.

[Smartass]

This is a long way from being over!
BUSH & CHENEY 2004

[GVnana]

Kerry doesn't have to lift a finger to earn big labor's support. They're voluntarily stuck on the plantation with the blacks.

I'm inclined to agree.

[GVnana]

They run this every week. Unfortunately I missed this Saturday. It's based on current polling data.

[Dan from Michigan]

There's only a slim chance that John Kerry will be up 10 here in MI on election day. Only STRONG incumbents or races where the party abandons a candidate will that happen. Challengers of incumbents have never won by that much at least since 90. Klinton was closest with 8%, and Kerry isn't close with Charisma. Northeastern dems do bad here too. Midwest(Humphrey) and Southern dems(Klinton/Gore - likely Carter if Ford wasn't a homer) do well here and sell better to labor.

My money says this will be within 5% either way, and I'll even say that a 17000 or 5000 vote spread would not suprise me here. Recent Statewide races.

2002
Gov - Granholm(D) 51%, Posthumus(R) 47%
AG - Cox(R) 49% Peters(D) 49% (5000 vote difference)
Sec of State - Land(R) 55%, Hollowell(D) 43% (Dems abandoned it and Land ran a great campaign)
Senate - Lenin(D) 61%, Rocky(R) 38% - Rocky was abandoned.

2000
President - Gore 51%, Bush 46%
Senate - Stamenow(D) 49%, Abraham(R) 48% - Abraham did not run a good campaign and his immigration stance hurt him bad with labor.

1998 (A disaster year up and down the ticket for dems)
Gov - Engler(R) 62%, Fieger(D) 38% - Fieger even lost Ann Arbor. Nuff said.
Sec of State - Miller(R) 68%, Parks(D) 30% - Miller is credited with modernizing the Sec of State office and cutting lines there. Fieger at the top helped too.
AG - Granholm(D) 52%, Smietenka(R) 48% - Infighting killed us here, and the dems smelling defeat in the other two races put their money here. 1996 Klinton 51%, Dole 38%, Perot 9%
Lenin(D) won big here too with 58%

1994
Engler(R) 61% over Wolpe.
Senate - Abraham 52% over Bob Carr(D)
Miller(R) wins over an incumbent Austin(D) for Sec of State. Don't have results offhand.
AG - Dem Frank Kelley(D) won big. He's the most popular dem in the last 50 years in Michigan. 1992
Klinton 44%, Bush 36%, Perot 19% 1990 John Engler(R) 50.5%, Jim Blanchard(D) 49.5% - 17000 votes.

[COEXERJ145]

NO poll can show the extent of democrat party vote fraud.

Millions of votes for Kerrry this year will be fraudulent and there is no way to account for that in any polling data.

Thankfully a lot of it will be in states that Kerry will win even without all the fraud that the Rats create. The only purpose will be to pad Lurch's "popular vote" numbers and give the DNC 4 more years to claim Bush didn't win the election.

[Jet Jaguar]

Thanks for the insight. Do they publish it or is it only available through the transcripts? I would love to post these weekly myself. I am a big fan of Fred Barnes.

[JoeSixPack1]

Hanoi John was in dire need of deflecting media attention away from his looney toons trophy wife.

[Mo1]

I was watching Hanniy and Colmes

And Sean mention to Geraldine Ferraro that he hasn't seen a liberal ticket like this since she and Mondale ran for office

:0)

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks, pjd. To all, a reprised quote along these lines:

'Scientific' view forecasts a big Bush win
Reuters
July 01, 2004

Polls may show the presidential race in a dead heat, but for a small band of academics who use scientific formulas to predict elections, President Bush is on his way to a sizable win... Most of these academics are predicting Bush, bolstered by robust economic growth, will win between 53 and 58 percent of the votes cast for him and his Democratic opponent John Kerry... But one glaring error is what the forecasters are perhaps best remembered for: They predicted in 2000 that Democrat Al Gore would win easily, pegging his total at between 53 and 60 percent of the two-party vote... The forecasters chalk up the 2000 error to Gore's campaign, which distanced itself from the Clinton record. All the models assume the candidates will run reasonably competent campaigns, said Thomas Holbrook, a professor at the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee... Holbrook uses an economic indicator from the University of Michigan's survey of consumers. One question asks whether respondents are better or worse off financially than they were a year before. In May, 45 percent said they were better off. That is lower than the all-time election year high of 54 percent in 2000, Holbrook said, but higher than the 39 percent in 1996 when Clinton was re-elected.

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

posted to: pjd; 1rudeboy; BenLurkin; boycott; COEXERJ145; carl in alaska; clintonh8r; Dan from Michigan; devolve; dougherty; drhogan; ER_in_OC,CA; Frank_2001; Graybeard58; GVgirl; Happy2BMe; Jet Jaguar; JoeSixPack1; Klein-Bottle; labard1; ladyinred; lainde; MeekOneGOP; maestro; no dems; ntnychik; PhilDragoo; paul51; potlatch; Smartass; smoothsailing; Texasforever; tang-soo; ValerieUSA; zarf

[Texasforever]

Hanoi John was in dire need of deflecting media attention away from his looney toons trophy wife.

Well if she is a trophy it must be the "booby prize" version.

[CyberAnt]

"the latest CBS/New York Times poll has Bush’s approval rating down to 42%"

But .. just to add more good news .. the new Gallup poll has Bush's approval rating at 53%.

Remember, if a candidate's numbers are 45 or lower, it is supposed to mean the candidate is in serious trouble. CBS is dreaming and scheming by showing Bush at 42%.