'Scientific' view forecasts a big Bush winPolls may show the presidential race in a dead heat, but for a small band of academics who use scientific formulas to predict elections, President Bush is on his way to a sizable win... Most of these academics are predicting Bush, bolstered by robust economic growth, will win between 53 and 58 percent of the votes cast for him and his Democratic opponent John Kerry... But one glaring error is what the forecasters are perhaps best remembered for: They predicted in 2000 that Democrat Al Gore would win easily, pegging his total at between 53 and 60 percent of the two-party vote... The forecasters chalk up the 2000 error to Gore's campaign, which distanced itself from the Clinton record. All the models assume the candidates will run reasonably competent campaigns, said Thomas Holbrook, a professor at the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee... Holbrook uses an economic indicator from the University of Michigan's survey of consumers. One question asks whether respondents are better or worse off financially than they were a year before. In May, 45 percent said they were better off. That is lower than the all-time election year high of 54 percent in 2000, Holbrook said, but higher than the 39 percent in 1996 when Clinton was re-elected.
Reuters
July 01, 2004
George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per centposted to: pjd; 1rudeboy; BenLurkin; boycott; COEXERJ145; carl in alaska; clintonh8r; Dan from Michigan; devolve; dougherty; drhogan; ER_in_OC,CA; Frank_2001; Graybeard58; GVgirl; Happy2BMe; Jet Jaguar; JoeSixPack1; Klein-Bottle; labard1; ladyinred; lainde; MeekOneGOP; maestro; no dems; ntnychik; PhilDragoo; paul51; potlatch; Smartass; smoothsailing; Texasforever; tang-soo; ValerieUSA; zarf
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